Summary: A couple more very warm days are upon us before a Thursday night front cools us down just a little for Friday and the weekend, mainly in the mornings. We warm back up again early next week with another possible front after Tuesday. Rain looks to be at a premium over the next week or so.

Before we begin today, there was an article published yesterday by AccuWeather that sounded the alarm on the upcoming hurricane season. It singled out Texas as being at higher risk than normal as well. Over at our companion site, The Eyewall, I have a post up this morning explaining why we think it will be an active hurricane season but also why we believe it’s too soon to be singling out specific places. I have to warn you now: The next few months are going to be chock full of noise about the upcoming hurricane season. It does look setup to be active. We will continue to share what we know and what we think here and over at The Eyewall so you can make sense of what you might hear or see shared on social media.

Today

We’ve got some fog out there this morning, so use caution through 8-9 AM or so. Houston officially rocketed to 78 degrees yesterday, oddly the same temperature we hit exactly one year ago. But it likely begins a somewhat lengthy stretch of 70 degree days in Houston. Look for warm temps again today, with a chance at hitting 80 degrees in spots. Winds will be noticeably gustier today, at times 25 to 30 mph. Overall, a windy, mild day. For those of you that suffer from seasonal allergies, get ready.

Thursday

Expect a few more clouds tomorrow with morning lows in the 60s and daytime highs around 80 degrees or so. I don’t know if “humid” is the right word, but it will feel a little “thicker” outside.

Our next cold front will be moisture-starved and hit right around midnight tomorrow night. Maybe a few raindrops could get squeezed out ahead of the front Thursday afternoon, but I’d probably be more likely to bet on the Oakland A’s to win the World Series this season.

Friday

With the front past us on Friday, expect a lovely day: Sunny, with morning lows in the 50s, warming into the 70s.

Weekend

If you want stereotypical spring weather, this is absolutely your weekend. The streak of rainy weekends is in the past. Look for morning lows in the 40s and 50s with daytime highs in the 70s Saturday and upper-70s Sunday.

Early next week

I’d expect a pair of warm days Monday and Tuesday with increasing cloud cover. A slight chance of rain may enter the picture midweek with our next front knocking at the door. But details on that one are TBD right now. Either way, expect a slight cooldown after next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Summary: Houston will see mild, mostly rain-free conditions for the foreseeable future. We’ll warm up the next couple of days before a moderate front cools us down for the weekend. Speaking of which, outdoor activities look good to go on Saturday and Sunday, so make your plans with confidence.

Tuesday

If you found Monday’s sunny skies and cool air a bit too cool for your liking, you may appreciate today more. With a moderate southerly flow in place, temperatures today will rise into the mid-70s beneath mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, from the south and southwest at 5 to 10 mph. With dew points generally in the 50s, the air will still feel somewhat dry. Lows tonight should only drop to around 60 degrees for much of the area, and this could aid in the development of some fog during the overnight hours.

Wednesday

This will be another day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. The most notable change from Tuesday will be an increase in southerly winds, with daytime gusts of 20 to 25 mph. We’ll see more clouds overnight, and lows will be warm-ish for this time of year, only dropping into the low 60s.

Thursday

This should be the warmest day of the week, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the morning and some clearing in the afternoon. Expect highs of nearly 80 degrees with a southerly breeze. Change will come in the form of a front dropping out of the northwest. As of now it appears likely the front will reach areas such as Katy and The Woodlands by around sunset, push through most of Houston by around 8 to 10 pm, and move off the coast by around midnight. Some light rain is possible with the front, but at this point I believe it is unlikely. Lows drop into the 50s overnight, behind the front.

Friday

Friday morning looks a bit breezy, with northerly winds gusting up to 15 or 20 mph. But these winds should slacken during the afternoon hours as Houston enjoys sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s with drier air. Lows on Friday night will likely drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend continues to look splendid for outdoor activities—so if you picked this weekend for a wedding or family reunion give yourself a gold star. Saturday will be sunny, in the mid-70s, with light winds and low humidity. Overnight lows drop into the low-50s. Sunday will be a bit warmer, with a bit more humidity. It will also be somewhat breezy, as a southerly flow returns, with some gusts around 20 mph. Under this Southerly influence lows on Sunday night will be warmer, perhaps dropping only to about 60 degrees.

Next week

Spring continues. Houston should warm into the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week before some sort of front arrives. This may bring a few cooler days and some better rain chances, especially toward the end of the week. Do I have much confidence in the details? I do not.

Summary: It’s a chilly morning across Houston, with temperatures generally in the 30s, and you’ll want a jacket. But after this morning we start to warm up nicely. A weak front on Thursday should set the stage for some stellar weather this weekend. In this post I also discuss whether this past weekend marked the last outbreak of really cold weather this season.

End of winter?

For Houston, I would characterize a “really cold night” as a temperature below 40 degrees. Your view may well differ, but that is a nighttime temperature about 5 degrees colder than our normal lows during the middle of winter. In any case, it’s a night when most people want their heat running, and they step outside in the morning and things feel pretty cold. Or, as my wife says when she lets the dogs out, “It’s freezing!”

Most of the Houston region saw a pair of nights this weekend that dropped below 40 degrees, and it was a genuinely cold winter weekend. As we get near the end of February, such cold snaps become rarer. The question this morning is whether we will see sub-40 degree temperatures again this season. I would say the answer is not definitive, but I think there’s a solid chance we don’t. There is signal in the global models for some cooler air air around the beginning of March, but I’m not sure it will get below 40 degrees in Houston. The bottom line, I think, is that after this past weekend Spring has sprung.

Also, I wanted to mention that we’ve published a second sponsorship video with Reliant. Check it out to see some of the fun things we’ve done over the last seven years.

Monday

Today should be a very fine day, with sunny skies, dry air, and high temperatures in the mid-60s. Seriously, this will be one of those A+, Goldilocks days that Houston experiences between cold fronts and warmer and more humid weather. Winds will shift to come from the south at 5 to 10 mph later today. With this beginning of an onshore flow, conditions will be warmer tonight, with temperatures generally falling into the upper 40s for most of the metro area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s. We’ll continue to see a nighttime warming trend, with lows in the upper 50s on Wednesday morning, and low 60s by Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to blow from the south, becoming more noticeable by Wednesday, with some gusts up to 20 or 25 mph.

Thursday

Expect a warmer day, with highs likely reaching 80 degrees or a bit higher. Skies are likely to be partly cloudy. A front will push through the area during the daytime, but as of now overall rain chances with its passage look quite low. I’d bet on a dry front. It will not going to be particularly potent, but the front will bring us some drier and cooler air for the weekend. Lows on Friday morning will likely drop into the upper 50s.

Friday

This looks like a fine, sunny day with highs in the mid-70s and drier air. Skies are likely to be mostly sunny. Lows on Friday night should drop to around 50 in Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

This is going to be a great weekend for any outdoor activities you may have. Look for sunny skies, and highs in the mid-70s on Saturday, and upper-70s on Sunday. Lows will be in the lower 50s on Saturday and Sunday mornings. By the second half of the weekend we’ll see the return of a moderate onshore flow, which will start to nudge up humidity levels.

Next week

Temperatures will bounce upward, into the low-80s for the first half of next week. It should be our warmest weather of 2024. However, it looks like we may see a decent front near the end of the month. There are also some hints that later next week could also bring our first real chances of rain back into the forecast, but the forecast starts to get pretty hazy at that point.

Summary: A mostly gentle rain is expected for most of the Houston area today, with the steadiest falling near the coast or down toward Matagorda Bay. A cold front will usher in a blustery overnight and Saturday with temperatures dropping into the 40s, before a spectacular Sunday and Monday. We’ll likely be talking 80s by midweek next week.

Before we get into things today, I want to give a shoutout to the second graders at Creekview Elementary up in Tomball. I got to visit them yesterday and answer all their weather questions, most of which happened to be about tornadoes! Some bright kiddos, and a thank you to Kristin Pesz, Tiffany Major, and the rest of the second grade teachers for having me out and for a couple special gifts!

Alright, let’s jump into the forecast.

Today

We’ll end the week on a wet note. This looks like the rare Houston steady rain that doesn’t dump all at once. This should be a rather gentle light to perhaps moderate rain most of the time in our area. Most of the area should see at least some rain, but the odds drop off, ahem, precipitously north of Highway 105.

Areas south of Houston will see the most rain, which is to say a half-inch to inch perhaps, with the highest amounts down near Matagorda Bay. For Houston, totals will probably range from a few hundredths of an inch up near Conroe to a quarter to half inch south of I-10. Temperatures won’t move much today, with 60s this morning, increasing just a few degrees this afternoon.

Late tonight & Saturday

It will not be until about midnight or so, give or take an hour or two that we notice a big time change. A cold front will hit, which should taper any rain off to drizzle mostly. But behind it, fairly potent north winds will usher in cold air. Look for gusts of 20 to 30mph, stronger on the coast or near the Bay. And temperatures will probably hold steady in the mid to upper 40s at best. It will remain mostly cloudy with a few showers or some light rain around through the day, particularly south or east of Houston.

Sunday

Winds calm down Saturday night, and Sunday will dawn calm and chilly. Look for lows in the 30s over a good chunk of the region. But Sunday’s daytime looks absolutely stellar, with temperatures rebounding well into the 50s to perhaps near 60 in spots. Oh, and it’ll be sunny. Definitely one to enjoy!

Presidents’ Day

Monday looks fantastic, with sunshine, morning lows in the 40s, and daytime highs near 70 degrees. Another stellar day.

Rest of next week

The warm up does not stop there. We will continue to add a little humidity and warmer temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I expect highs to hit the upper 70s Tuesday, and 80 or better Wednesday and Thursday. Current model guidance from the National Blend of Models (NBM) suggests at least a 50 to 60 percent chance of 80 or better on both Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will bump up into the 50s to near 60 degrees perhaps by Thursday.

No real meaningful shower chances are expected right now, but this warm pattern may allow for some sea fog in Galveston or along the bayshore. A cold front should nudge through the area Friday, allowing for cooler, dry weather next weekend but nothing too excessive. We’re probably looking at 40s and 50s for lows and 60s or 70s for highs. More on that next week.