Good morning. Before jumping into the forecast I want to briefly touch on Tuesday’s rainfall, as well as our brief reprieve from extremely hot weather. First, the rainfall. Parts of Galveston and Brazoria counties received a few tenths of an inch of rain from fading Tropical Storm Harold on Tuesday. These were welcome, if brief downpours of tropical rains. The vast majority of the region along and north of Interstate 10, however, received no precipitation whatsoever. The bottom line is that, as expected, our ugly and worsening drought continues. See the end of this post for a discussion of rain chances down the line.

Additionally, the cloudy skies and breezy conditions—the strong easterly winds were part of Harold’s circulation—helped keep a lid on high temperatures. Houston’s Hobby Airport topped out at 97 degrees, and Bush Intercontinental peaked at 97 degrees as well. Both of these locations ended long streaks of days with recordings of 100 degrees or higher. Hobby’s streak was remarkable, 18 days, doubling its previous record of nine days. Hobby has collected meteorological data for nearly a century. Bush IAH ended its streak at 23 days, falling one day short of the city’s all-time record of 24 days, set during the torrid month of August 2011.

Unfortunately, we’re probably going to start new streaks at both locations today. Harold is gone, and extreme heat is back on the menu for a little while longer.

Wednesday

We’re right back to very hot weather today, with area-wide highs of about 100 degrees, high humidity, and mostly sunny skies. Winds will shift to come from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. The key difference for the rest of this week is that we are going to see some weak atmospheric disturbances roll through the area. It’s going to be difficult for these to generate significant rainfall, given the sinking air associated with high pressure. However, it will not be impossible, and therefore each day should carry about a 20 percent chance of rain.

Thursday

As high pressure moves almost directly overhead, this should be a very hot day, with highs generally in the low 100s across the area, away from the coast. Afternoon rain chances, again, look to be on the order of 20 percent.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The forecast remains more or less the same, with highs of around 100 degrees, mostly sunny skies, and a puncher’s chance of some rain showers.

Next week

This is where the forecast starts to get a little bit more interesting. The high pressure system that has dominated our weather for much of this summer looks to fade westward, and this should allow for a slight moderation of temperatures. We may also see some better rain chances by Tuesday or so of next week, but that’s far enough into the future I would not want to bet on anything. But I do have some modest hopes, and the end of August is on the horizon.

Space City Weather app

We’ve updated our app to address some bugs that readers have reported with old timestamps and odd temperatures. Our developer thinks he has worked through the problem, but if you’re still seeing issues, please email us at [email protected]. Thank you to everyone who reported problems in the last couple of weeks. If you haven’t downloaded our app, you can get it for free here for Apple, and here for Android.

As we’ve been telling you since Friday, the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico—which was upgraded to Tropical Storm Harold overnight—is going to go far enough south of the Houston metro region to preclude us from seeing significant effects. We’ll see some easterly breezes, with decent gusts, and we’ll see some clouds. But unfortunately we’re not going to the kind of significant, widespread rainfall needed to help put a dent in our sharpening drought. Instead, we just get more heat.

Please don’t kill the messenger.

Tuesday

Whether you see any effects from Harold will depend on how close you live to the coast. Residents of southern Brazoria and Galveston counties will have the best chances of rain, perhaps 50 percent today, and strongest winds. Gusts above 40 mph are possible today right along the coast. Areas further inland, but south of Interstate 10, will see lesser rain chances of around 30 percent, with slightly less gusty winds. Highs should be below 100 degrees for these areas relatively near the coast.

And parts of Houston north of Interstate 10? Well, it’s just going to be another very hot and mostly sunny day. Highs may reach the low- to mid-100s again for places such as The Woodlands. Rain chances for inland locations are perhaps 10 percent.

Wednesday

This will be a sunny day with highs in the low 100s across the area. With a bit of lingering moisture from Harold, rain chances are perhaps 10 or 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday

These two days look really hot, with highs in the 105-degree range likely for much of the area. Skies will be mostly sunny. Rain chances are not zero, so perhaps 10 percent daily.

Saturday and Sunday

Don’t get me wrong, these will be hot and mostly sunny days. But as high pressure eases off to the West, highs may drop back down to around 100 degrees. We’ll also see some weak atmospheric disturbances that could spark some scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Please do not get too excited, as I’d peg rain chances at only about 20 percent.

Next week

If you had hot and mostly sunny on your bingo card for next week, congratulations, you’re a winner! However, I don’t think next week will be as hot as this one, and we’re also going to see some modest rain chances. I don’t think they’ll be higher than 20 or 30 percent each day, but that is a sight better than the 0 to 5 percent we’ve experienced for much of this summer. In case you’re wondering, we’re still about three to five weeks away from when we can anticipate our first decent cold front of the season. It can’t come soon enough, I know.

Tropics

Beyond Harold, which will bring some tropical winds and rains to South Texas, there is a lot happening out there in the Atlantic. While there are no distinct threats to the Gulf of Mexico, or Texas, that can change fairly quickly at this time of year. Be sure and check The Eyewall for a full rundown of all the activity out there, every morning around 7 am CT. Matt has been nerding out with some book-length posts of late.

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Invest 91L in the Gulf to Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 this morning, and since its potential has been realized, it is now Tropical Depression 9. Despite these changes, which were mostly expected, not much has changed from our morning post in terms of expected impacts in Texas and Mexico. Locally in Houston, we expect to see little more than an easterly breeze, a few more clouds, and sporadic showers today and Tuesday. The action is going to be down the coast.

Tropical Storm Warnings are posted along the Texas coast from the Rio Grande River north past Corpus Christi to Port O’Connor. A Tropical Storm Watch extends north from there to Sargent, TX. Looking at TD 9 on satellite this afternoon shows a whole lot of storms. I said it this morning, and I’ll say it again. We are fortunate that this thing has a limited amount of time left over water.

It has all the ingredients you need in place to blow up into a big storm, except the most critical thing: time. The depression is racing west at 18 miles per hour, which means it will be ashore in Texas by Tuesday morning. Impacts will be minor to moderate in South Texas, with the potential for some gusty winds to tropical storm force, mainly south of Corpus Christi and offshore. Meanwhile, beneficial rain will fall in South Texas, where generally 1 to 3 inches will fall. There will likely be a few pockets of 4 to 5 inches in Brush Country and more into the mountains of Mexico.

Rainfall impacts will be minimal north of there, with Houston and San Antonio mostly missing out on anything. In fact, with a bit of a breeze in between the heat ridge to our north and TD 9 to our south, we may have a slightly enhanced risk of fire danger in parts of Texas again on Tuesday. When it fails, it fails hard.

In addition to heavy rain in South Texas, there is also a chance for isolated tornadoes, as is often the case with landfalling tropical systems. But the main issue to impact your daily life in that area will be heavy rain.

By Wednesday, TD 9 or Harold will make its way across Mexico, and a piece of its remnants may actually find its way into the monsoon flow in New Mexico and Arizona, which would bring some beneficial rain to those areas that mostly missed out on Hilary’s rainfall this past weekend. Rare is the tropical system that is mostly a net positive, but this one may very well be just that. We’ll keep an eye on rain totals tomorrow to make sure things stay under control.

Sunday was blazing hot as upper-level high pressure continued to bake Texas. Nearly all meteorological sites across the region broke daily high records, in some cases smashing them. The city’s “official” measuring station, presently located at Bush Intercontinental Airport, reached 108°. This is one degree short of the city’ all-time hottest temperature across nearly 150 years of records, 109 degrees. This mark was recorded on August 27, 2011. Here are some other results:

• Houston-IAH: 108° (1 degree short of all-time high, reached four other times)
• Houston-Hobby: 107° (broke daily record high of 101°, set in 1999)
• Galveston: 97° (tied record daily high from 1995)
• College Station: 112° (tied all-time record high, set Sept. 4, 2000)
• Sugar Land: 107° (broke daily record high of 101°, set in 2018)
• Tomball: 110° (broke daily record high of 101°, set in 1999)

Our eyes now turn to the Gulf, where a tropical disturbance has a decent chance of flaring into a tropical depression or storm today, before moving into South Texas early on Tuesday. I fear we will be looking longingly at the system, because its winds and waves won’t be severe, but its rains definitely beneficial. The best accumulations will all be south of Corpus Christi, although the southern Houston area may see some stray showers today and tomorrow. See below for much more information about the Gulf disturbance.

Monday

Today is going to be very hot again, although temperatures probably will be a few degrees lower than Sunday’s exceptional highs. Skies will be mostly sunny this morning, but we may see some clouds developing today. In response to the tropical system, our winds will become more easterly, perhaps gusting to 20 mph later today. These winds will exacerbate fire conditions, and a red flag warning is in effect for the combination of strong winds and high temperatures.

Will it rain today? Probably not. Some isolated areas probably will see a decent soaking, but all of the organized shower activity should be far to the south of the Greater Houston region. Rain chances are probably on the order 20 percent today and tonight for coastal Houston, and closer to 0 percent north of Interstate 10.

Tuesday

Rain chances will peak on Tuesday, at perhaps to 30 or 40 percent south of Interstate 10, and maybe 20 percent north of the freeway. This day should also be slightly cooler, with highs in the 90s for areas closer to the coast. It’s still going to be hot, though. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

Wednesday

A hot day, with highs in the low 100s for much of the region and mostly sunny skies. Rain chances? They’re long gone.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Unfortunately this period looks to be extremely hot, with high pressure building more directly over Texas. We’re talking highs in the low- to mid-100s, so akin to what the region experienced this past weekend. Rain chances will be on the order of about 10 percent each day.

Is there any relief at all in sight?

If you’re wondering about cool fronts and plentiful rainfall, alas, the answer is no. However at this point the ridge of high pressure does look to back off some next week, and that should take some of the top end off of the high temperatures. It should also allow rain chances to creep back up a little bit. We’ll see. This summer has been brutal, and will continue to be for some time.

All about the Gulf disturbance

Now let’s talk about the Gulf of Mexico. This portion of today’s post comes via The Eyewall, our companion website where you can find comprehensive coverage of hurricanes. This morning, we have seen no real progress toward better organization overnight from the tropical wave, Invest 91L, in the eastern Gulf.

Just as a quick reminder: Invests are really just meteorological classifications given to tropical disturbances so extra data can be compiled about them; literally “an area of investigation.” There’s no strict definition, but they go from 90 to 99 and then recycle again. In the Atlantic we use “L” as an identifying abbreviation. The East Pacific is “E,” West Pacific “W,” etc.

Anyway, 91L has a broad circulation this morning but does not appear to be tightening up any as of yet. The good news is that this system only has about 24 hours left over water before it comes ashore in South Texas. The most likely outcome at this point is an approach just south of Corpus Christi or north of Brownsville.

Given that we have 24 hours left and given how this thing looks on satellite, my hunch is that if we see this upgraded we may skip the formalities and go right to a tropical storm. The next name on the list would be Harold. At worst, this would probably become a low-end tropical storm (45 to 55 mph maximum sustained winds, mostly in heavier rain bands and over water).

More importantly, this will be a rainmaker for Texas. The entire state desperately needs rain.

East Texas and the upper Texas coast are in extreme drought, with pockets of exceptional drought in Hill Country northwest of San Antonio. A quick moving tropical system would be virtually 100 percent positive in Texas right now. This will help. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches with higher amounts are expected for South Texas, mainly south of Corpus Christi into the Rio Grande Valley and west toward Laredo. Northern Mexico will also receive healthy rains from this.

While this will not end drought for South Texas, it will greatly help. Unfortunately, the hardest hit parts of the state are expecting little to no rain this week, meaning drought and fire danger will worsen.