A couple quick housekeeping notes today before we get into things. First, our annual fundraiser will end soon! We are grateful for your support so far, and if you want to purchase merchandise to be shipped in time for Christmas or just simply make a donation, you still can here. Thank you!

Houston’s KHGX radar maintenance

With rain in the forecast and at least the potential for some strong to severe storms tomorrow, Houston’s primary Doppler radar is offline for maintenance. You may say, “Why on earth would they do that?” Unfortunately, there’s no real time of year here that’s better or worse; it can storm all 12 months of the year. The maintenance necessary to replace the radar pedestal (extending the lifespan of the radar another 20+ years) is extensive and requires a lot of planning. So it’s not something they can just pause or shift. The good news is that Houston has two terminal Doppler radars (TDWRs) that cover most of the metro area, and adjacent radars to ours will provide imperfect but mostly adequate coverage through the outage.

For those of you that use our app for radar coverage, there is a workaround. If you tap the radar in the app, you’ll notice two diamonds, one on the south side of Houston and one on the north side. Those are the aforementioned TDWR’s from Tomball and Pearland, and you should be able to pull data from those, covering essentially the entire metro area. If you live outside the city and suburbs, you can move the map around to a few other options. To the west, the radar north of Austin can cover most of the northwest fringe areas outside the Houston metro to about College Station and Brenham or so. Corpus Christi’s radar is useful for Matagorda Bay up through maybe Wharton. Lake Charles’s radar will cover the east side adequately to just east of Baytown. Coverage between about Huntsville and Lufkin will be a little trickier, but Shreveport and the Tomball TDWR will help there. Inconvenient for sure, but not a calamity, and this is great news for the long term health of our area’s extremely valuable Doppler radar.

Today

Wednesday will be a fairly calm day across the area. No trouble yet. We’ll see clouds roll in and thicken up from south to north through the day. They’re already starting to do so in fact. But some of the lower clouds could scour out by late morning before more clouds increase again later. Temperatures should peak in the mid to maybe upper-60s later today.

Tonight

Look for winds to kick up tonight, especially at the coast, where they could gust to 30 mph or so by morning. Scattered showers will spread north and east through the night, arriving in the Matagorda Bay area by midnight and across the rest of the metro area by morning on Thursday. Temperatures will only drop back a few degrees overnight, into the low-60s or so. They should even climb some toward morning.

Thursday

In a couple words: The worst of the weather tomorrow should occur from about 8 AM to 4 PM, with strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes, as well as heavy rain.

We will have a couple things to watch for on Thursday. First and foremost, strong to severe thunderstorms may begin to break out across the area as early as the back half of the commute, after 8 AM or so. The atmosphere looks fairly primed to produce storms with strong winds, potentially some hail, and even a tornado or two around the region. This doesn’t look quite as foreboding as what we experienced almost a year ago back in January with the Pasadena tornado (which was an exceptional setup for severe weather here), but the parameters are definitely aligned for at least some severe weather.

More technically: There’s a pretty healthy amount of wind shear (wind changing direction with height) available tomorrow. You need wind shear for severe weather and tornado risk. But the window for that severe weather and tornado risk tomorrow looks conditional and narrow. In other words, we need the appropriate amount of instability to realize to generate thunderstorms. And on top of that, we need the storms to be able to tap into that shear and instability at low levels. This is not a slam dunk case for severe weather, but it’s enough to say that if storms can realize their full potential tomorrow there could be a couple tornadoes, especially north of I-10. We should have a better idea on this tomorrow and will have more for you before it gets messy out there.

In terms of rainfall, we are not expecting significant or widespread flooding. But street flooding is a decent possibility in a few spots tomorrow. Most areas will see a half inch to inch or so of rainfall, but a couple isolated spots will almost certainly see 2 to 3 inches of rain or even a bit more, much of which could fall quickly.

All this should start to clear off to our east by late afternoon and evening, leaving us with clouds and a few showers. Temperatures and humidity will build up tomorrow, with highs near 70, and you’ll feel the dampness.

Friday

The forecast gets a bit trickier on Friday. The storms of Thursday will be well off to our east as a cold front slips into the region. However, it looks as if this front may stall near the coast or just offshore. This would keep us generally a bit cloudy and unsettled with shower chances, depending on exactly where it stalls. Temperatures will be mainly in the 60s, with 70s will be possible near the coast on Friday. The exact placement of the front will determine how warm it is on Friday.

Weekend into next week

That front may backpedal onshore Saturday, bringing more clouds and showers. Morning lows will range from the 50s inland to 60s near or south of the front. By Sunday, the stalled front should be escorted out into the Gulf by a second cold front which will usher in cooler, drier air and hopefully some sunshine for early next week. Admittedly, I’m skeptical about much clearing right now but we’re still several days out.

Texans tailgating looks okay right now, with temperatures probably in the 50s to low-60s most of the morning, warming into the mid-60s or so for the afternoon. I’m not going to completely rule out a shower, but I would lean toward drier weather at the moment.

Temperatures will drop to the 60s for highs, 40s for lows early next week, and another warming trend may impact us next weekend.

On a chilly morning like this, it is not difficult to imagine that winter will begin soon. But could spend this entire post discussing when winter begins. Is it Dec. 1? Is it the winter solstice, Dec. 21 this year? Is it the region’s first freeze? For the sake of simplicity, since this is a weather website, we’re going to use “meteorological winter,” which encompasses the months of December, January, and February. That works well for Houston because that is, invariably, when the region’s coldest weather visits us.

The big driver for our weather this winter will be a robust El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean will almost certainly persist throughout winter. When El Niño is present during the winter months, it generally has a pronounced effect on the Pacific jet stream. Instead of being variable in its track, often entering North America near the state of Washington and southern British Columbia, it more consistently tracks into California and Mexico’s Baja peninsula. This brings a more southerly storm track, including over Texas.

This should make for a fairly straightforward forecast for Texas, including the Houston area, during the winter time months. There is, however, one risk that I’ll discuss below. But first, the outlook. According to NOAA (and historical trends during El Niño), we can expect near-normal temperatures this winter in Texas.

Additionally, given the more southerly storm track, we can expect more precipitation this winter. Note I said precipitation, as during the winter months we can see rain as well as the potential for sleet, snow, and even freezing rain. In any case, since the atmosphere overhead is likely to be more disturbed, this should make for a fairly wet winter. That should help take care of our lingering drought, especially along the Sabine River area.

So that’s what we can expect during a typical El Niño winter. But there is a wild card at play, and that is the lingering effect of very warm temperatures this year (driven largely, but not exclusively, by climate change). As long-time readers will know, the interaction between land and sea temperatures is a crucial part of weather forecasting, and the sea surface temperatures are out of whack right now.

A non-nominal El Niño

Here’s what I mean by that. The map below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly this fall. Clearly we can see the warmth in the equatorial Pacific Ocean due to El Niño. But much of the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are also very warm, which is not normal leading into an El Niño winter.

Now let’s compare that to what sea surface temperature anomalies were like during the last four strong El Niño events, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16, during the period of November to March. This is what sea surface temperatures have looked like during the last four winters, so it is basically what we should expect to happen this winter if all else were equal.

But all else is not equal. I realize we’re doing a bit of comparing apples to oranges here, but the basic takeaway should be clear: Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperatures heading into this winter look almost nothing like they would during a typical El Niño winter—they’re much warmer. Therefore I would rate this winter forecast as low-confidence, with a high amount of risk.

A message from our sponsor, Reliant

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Skies will be sunny today and part of Wednesday, but after that our pattern will change as a slow-moving front approaches the area and brings widespread rain showers on Thursday in addition to the potential for storms. Some rain chances will linger through the weekend, which will see a mix of sunshine, clouds, and rain chances to go along with highs in the 60s.

Tuesday

As high pressure holds sway today, we’re going to see mostly sunny skies. With a cool, light northeasterly flow in place, highs will max out at about 60 degrees for most of the area. As winds shift to come from the southeast overnight we’ll see a slightly warmer night, although most of the region is still likely to drop into the mid-40s, or even a bit cooler for areas further inland. This should be our last night in the 40s for several days.

Wednesday

If your skin has been feeling drier, fret not, as dewpoints start rising on Wednesday in response to an onshore flow. We’ll also see that atmospheric moisture in the form of some clouds, which will pretty much blanket the sky by the afternoon hours. Look for highs in the upper 60s. Rain chances should hold off during the daytime and evening, but we may start to see some scattered showers by around midnight or shortly after. Lows on Wednesday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Thursday

On Thursday the ingredients—increasing atmospheric moisture, an advancing cold front, as well as other factors—should come together to produce rainfall and potentially some storms. The best chance of heavy rainfall and storms will probably come on late Thursday morning into the afternoon hours, so that’s something to think about in regard to a potentially messy commute home. In addition to 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, we will also see decidedly gusty winds, perhaps above 30 mph. Rain chances start to slacken a bit by Thursday evening, and overnight lows will drop to about 60 degrees.

Friday

The front should move just offshore on Friday, and that may allow for a bit of clearing during the daytime on Friday. Right now my expectation is for partly sunny skies, highs in the mid-60s, and somewhat lower humidity. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees or a bit warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast remains a bit uncertain due to the proximity of the front to the coast, which may provoke some additional showers. For now let’s go with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday, with perhaps a bit more sunshine on Sunday. Both days will likely see highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 50s. Each day will also have a decent chance of light to moderate rainfall, especially areas nearer the coast and to the east of Houston.

Next week

A reinforcing push of drier air should arrive later on Sunday or Monday, and this probably will give us a few days next week with highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s, and low- to non-existent rain chances. That will feel pretty much like December in Houston feels. Speaking of December, look for our official winter forecast later this morning.

Fundraiser

Don’t forget that we’re still selling merchandise and taking donations for our annual fundraiser to support Space City Weather. It ends this week so that all items can ship in time for Christmas. Thank you!

Good morning. Low temperatures have dipped into the upper 30s for much of Houston outside the urban core, and away from the coast. With chilly conditions expected for the remainder of November, it looks like this month will be the first one since May to record a below normal temperature.

The average temperature so far this month—calculated by adding the daily high and low, and dividing by two—is presently a little less than 63 degrees. That will slip a bit this week. It seems notable that while Houston recorded an exceptionally hot summer this year, the spring and fall have been rather temperate.

We’re also in the final days of our annual fundraiser. The response so far this year has been tremendous—thank you so much. There’s still time to buy merchandise or donate if you would care to.

Monday

Our overall pattern this week is fairly straightforward. We face three chilly days and nights before transitioning to a warmer pattern with higher rain chances beginning Thursday. This morning is likely to be the coldest of the week, with lows in the upper 30s. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures will be slow to warm, but we should eventually get into the upper 50s today, with light northerly winds. Low temperatures on Monday night should be a degree or two warmer than Sunday night.

Tuesday

This is the one day this week when we’re pretty much guaranteed sunshine, so be sure and soak it up. The combination of sunny skies and a more easterly flow should allow highs to reach the low 60s. Tuesday night will, in turn, be a degree or two warmer than Monday night, with lows likely dropping into the low 40s for much of the metro area.

Wednesday

With winds becoming more southeasterly, we’ll see a more humid flow beginning later on Wednesday, but it will take some time for the air mass to modify. As a result, I expect partly sunny skies on Wednesday, with highs in the mid- to upper-60s. As the Gulf of Mexico air moves in, we should see more clouds on Wednesday night, with lows dropping only to around 60 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

A low-pressure system will driver higher rain chances toward the end of the week, with Thursday likely to be the wettest day. Much of the area could see 1 to 2 inches of accumulating rain on Thursday. This should not be enough to cause flooding, but it should make for a fairly dreary day. Highs will be about 70 degrees. Rain chances continue Thursday night, and still should be 30 to 50 percent on Friday. This will be another warm day with a decent amount of humidity, with highs around 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for this weekend is somewhat uncertain as a cold front advances toward Houston on Friday, and then probably moves just off the coast. Our temperatures and rain chances are going to be dependent on the position of this front, and I’m just not entirely confident how far it pushes offshore. So for the time being, I’m going to predict high temperatures in the upper 60s this weekend, with lows somewhere in the 50s. Rain chances will be pretty decent for coastal areas, but likely less for inland areas. All of that is subject to change, of course.

Next week

Given the uncertainty over the weekend, I don’t feel strongly about next week’s outlook either. I do think we’ll probably see some clearing skies by Tuesday or so, and some slightly cooler weather thereafter. But we shall see!