Good morning. Houston will see a significant pattern change over the next few days, as a weakening ridge of high pressure allows for the influx of tropical moisture that will increase cloud cover and rain chances. This should bring cooler weather—some areas may have seen their last 90-degree days for awhile—and some much needed rainfall.

Given the tropical nature of this rainfall, some locations may see in excess of 4 inches, and this could lead to street flooding. For that reason, we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for areas south of Interstate 10 through Thursday. As usual in Houston, rainfall totals will be highly variable from location to location. So while you may not see heavy rainfall at your house, a neighborhood a few miles away may well be. A Stage 1 flood alert simply means that you should be aware of the potential for street flooding, not to expect widespread mayhem.

The overall pattern will also favor heavy rainfall across other parts of the state this week, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex later on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Matt will be covering the threat of rains and flooding across other parts of Texas, including San Antonio and Austin, on The Eyewall this morning.

Tuesday

We’re starting to see showers move in from the coast this morning, and most of the area has about a 60 percent chance of rainfall today. The threat of heavy rainfall is higher closer to the coast and source of moisture, which is why we’ve put in a State 1 flood alert for areas south of Interstate 10. Highs today will be dependent on local cloud cover and rainfall amounts, but I suspect that much of the area south of I-10 will top out in the upper 80s, while areas further inland have the potential to reach the lower 90s. Rain chances will slacken some on Tuesday night, but not go away entirely.

Wednesday and Thursday

The region will remain in a favorable environment for rain showers on Wednesday and Thursday, with plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with and an unstable environment. Showers may be especially pronounced on Thursday afternoon or evening as a cold front pushes down into the area and slows down. In any case, we’ll continue to see the threat of some street flooding in areas where the heavier rains setup. Rain accumulations will likely vary between 1 and 5 inches across the region this week, with the highest totals to the southwest of Houston. Highs will probably top out in the upper 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies for most areas.

Friday

The front will push into the area later on Thursday and Thursday night, but we’re not going to feel its effects right away. However, with mostly cloudy skies on Friday, I do think highs will top out in the mid-80s. Some decent rain chances will remain on Friday as drier air will lag behind the front’s passage somewhat. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The drier air you’re all waiting for should finally start to arrive with a reinforcing front on Friday night into Saturday morning. Some rain showers will linger on Saturday, and skies will likely remain mostly cloudy throughout the day. Would you believe me if I said highs may top out in the upper 70s? Well, I think that’s possible. Moreover, most of the area inland of Interstate 10 probably will drop into the upper 50s on Saturday night. Sunday looks to be the pick of the litter, in terms of weather, with highs in the mid-70s and partly to mostly sunny skies. No kidding. Lows on Sunday night will be modestly chilly again.

Next week

By Monday or Tuesday of next week our weather should be back into the 80s, with increasing humidity. But I don’t think we’re going back into full-on summer, and there are some hints of another front by around next weekend. That’s not something I’m fully confident in, however.

I have been waiting to write this post for four months.

For four very, very long months.

The four hottest months of summer in Houston on record, in fact. This summer was absolutely brutal in terms of daytime highs, overnight lows, and a drastic drought. So yeah, I’ve been waiting to write that the greater Houston region is going to see some meaningful rainfall, to be followed by the season’s first bonafide cold front. Relief is coming, and boy oh boy, is it going to be sweet. Look for high rain chances on Tuesday through Thursday, followed by a frontal passage on Friday. And then? Low humidity and cool nights!

As long as we’re writing about happy tidings and Houston, I’d also like to congratulate the Houston Astros and Texans. Like many of you, we’re big fans of the hometown teams, and Sunday was a big day. The Astros came from behind to sneak past the Texas Rangers to win their division, and set themselves up nicely for the playoffs. And behind the stellar play of their new rookies and head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans won their second game in a row. For the first time in a long time they look like a bonafide pro football team with great leadership. So, good tidings all around.

Monday

Today will see a continuation of this weekend’s weather, which is to say hot, sunny, and summer-like. Look for highs generally in the mid-90s, with an easterly wind that will at times be a bit gusty, and plenty of humidity. Lows tonight will drop only into the mid-70s for most of the area. Rain chances are near zero.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

By Tuesday the pattern will begin to change, as the ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather begins to back away. This will start to open up our region to tropical moisture that will move north from the central Texas coast. Rain chances will increase starting on Tuesday, and remain fairly high through Thursday. Most areas will at least see some light showers each day, with total accumulations likely between 1 to 3 inches over the three day period. A few areas will see more than this, possibly leading to some brief street flooding. Rain chances will be highest to the southwest, near Matagorda Bay, and lowest to the northeast of Houston.

Skies will turn partly to mostly cloudy and this, in concert with the on-and off-again showers should hold high temperatures to around 90 degrees, or slightly above, for much of the region. Expect plenty of humidity, with generally easterly to southeasterly winds.

Friday

We’re now fairly confident in the passage of a cold front on Friday, and this should bring an end to the showers later in the day. Highs on Friday will be highly dependent on your location, but generally we should be in the 80s, with drier air steadily moving in during the afternoon and overnight hours. Lows should drop into the 60s for all but the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

These look like a fine pair of sunny days with highs of around 80 degrees with drier air. Lows will drop to around 60 degrees in Houston, with some 50s for inland areas. We’ll work out just how cool things will get as we get closer to the weekend, but Sunday and Monday mornings are going to feel absolutely fall like for everyone.

Next week

The cooler weather will hang around at least into Tuesday or so, but after that we’re probably headed back into the upper 80s. As for this mid-90s nonsense we’ve been experiencing of late in Houston, I think we’re done with that for the year.

We have two problems to solve right now in Houston. There’s the abnormally hot weather (September is on pace to obliterate the previous warmest September on record), although I’m sure temperatures are now such that some of you are okay with things. There is also the drought. We’ve been nibbling away at that over the last 2 weeks or so with some daily showers and storms popping up across the area (including a spectacularly photogenic one yesterday).

Yes, we’ve knocked back the extent of exceptional drought from 76 percent coverage at its worst to 56 percent today, but that’s the hydrologic equivalent of getting a gratuitously indulgent slice of chocolate cake, having one small bite, and calling it a day. There is still work to be done.

More likely will be a legitimate cooldown next week, although that could come with some rain too. Eric said yesterday that if it does not happen, it’s my fault. I could not agree more. Let’s dive in.

Today through Monday

This forecast is pretty basic. Expect sun and clouds each day with highs in the mid, perhaps upper-90s in a few spots (near 90 or so at the coast), with lows in the mid-70s.

Each day will carry a very, very low chance of showers north of I-10. Better (but not high) chances will exist south of I-10, especially near the coast, down toward Matagorda Bay, and into the Victoria Crossroads. Most places won’t get wet, but those that do could see some locally heavy, brief downpours.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As moisture increases and the “trigger” for showers edges a little closer to our area, we could see slightly better chances of isolated to scattered showers and storms here. We’ll probably be talking about highs in the low to mid-90s, with lows still in the 70s.

Cold front!!!!

While models differ on the exact timing of things, it appears that sometime between Thursday and Saturday our first bonafide cold front of the season will finally push through the area.

It should hopefully deliver some showers and storms, followed by cooler and much less humid air. We’re probably looking at highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s along with comfortable humidity most days beyond Friday if all goes according to plan. Fingers crossed. We’ll have an update on this for you Monday.

Good morning. Houston faces at least another week of very warm, late summer weather with fairly low rain chances. However, the big news is that we’re finally starting to see the likelihood of the season’s first real cool front on the horizon. First, the caveats. It’s still about 10 days out, so a lot can happen. Our ability to forecast weather accurately only goes out to 7 to 10 days. However, the signal for this front (see below) is fairly strong. I’ll put it this way: I think the odds of seeing a pretty decent front are better than 50-50 at this point.

Another reason for some hope: It’s time. If we define a front as the fall season’s first day with a temperature of 65 degrees or below, Houston typically sees its first front sometime between the first week of September, and the first week of October. In records dating to 1889, there have been just 14 instances in which the season’s first front arrived on or after October 1, so about a 10 percent chance in any given year. The latest of these came in 1904, when the front was delayed until October 13. This year is going to be close to that, but right now we’re on track for the period from October 7 to 10—so just in time.

Thursday

Fall will feel a long ways away today, however. As high pressure more or less takes control of our weather, we’re going to continue to see high temperatures generally in the mid-90s across the region today, and for awhile. Yesterday we saw some fairly strong thunderstorms develop near Katy, and some isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon or early evening. The most likely areas will be close to the coast. Skies will otherwise be mostly sunny, with light easterly winds. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Friday

Did you like Thursday’s weather? Good, because Friday is pretty much the same.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re not going to see much change in our weather this weekend, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will, again, be on the order of 20 percent, with the highest odds near the coast. However, by Saturday the flow will turn a bit more northeasterly, and this should bring some slightly drier air into the picture. It won’t be much, but by Sunday morning it should start to may thinks feel a bit more comfortable.

Next week

We’re going to remain warm for most of next week, with highs likely in the vicinity of the mid-90s. However, the overall pattern may favor the influx of some tropical moisture, and this may bring some slightly better rain chances into the forecast by Wednesday, or so. By next weekend is when we’ll be looking for a cold front to arrive. I kind of hate to write about this, because I don’t want to be accused of being a tease. But the reality is that this is the strongest signal we’ve seen for fall’s first front, and the upper air pattern does appear to support its passage. So am I guaranteeing a front? No. I am rather hopeful? Yes. If it doesn’t come, can we all simply agree to blame Matt?