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On to the weather!

Today & Saturday

The apt word for this forecast is “dreary.” No, it is not likely to rain the entirety of today and tomorrow. But there will be periods of light rain, drizzle, or even steady rain mixed in with drier, overcast stretches. The best chance of some heavier rain would probably occur tomorrow south of I-10. Temperatures won’t go very far on either day. Temperatures won’t go anywhere today, and if anything we’ll see a slight drop in temperatures through the 60s and into the 50s. These temps will probably stay there most of tomorrow as well. If you’ve been longing for a couple gray days with chilly, damp weather, well, you’re in luck!

Sunday

The back part of the weekend is probably the best chance for a bit of a respite from rain. I do still think there will be showers or light rain pockets around on Sunday. Rain may pick up in coverage and intensity from southwest to northeast in the evening hours. I’m banking on the first half of the day to be our winner of the weekend, which isn’t saying much. it will still be in the low to mid-60s at best with clouds.

Monday

We start next week on a stormy note. A developing low pressure system in the Gulf is likely to fling a good bit of rain and a chance of thunderstorms our way Monday. Some of the rain could be heavy, especially south of I-10. We aren’t necessarily expecting anything serious on Monday, but I do think we should keep an eye on things for isolated severe storms or localized flooding.

Coastal conditions will be notable Monday with gusty winds as high as 30 to 40 mph in gusts possible, in addition to some rough seas. Monday’s highs will be in the low-60s, with lows again in the 50s.

Rest of next week

We should transition out of this pattern Tuesday, with only slight rain chances and decreasing clouds. Highs will be in the 60s again. We warm up Wednesday through Friday with temperatures rebounding into the 70s and lows back into the 60s. Our next cold front is probably arriving sometime next weekend. Details on what comes with that are too soon to say right now.

Good morning. Houston has experienced very warm (for November) temperatures this week, but that will come to an end with a cool front’s passage later this afternoon and evening. This front will lead to a wet and gray weekend, with temperatures in the vicinity of 60 degrees into the middle of next week. After all the sunshine it will be a bit dreary, I must say, but there are two good things to say about the pattern change. One, temperatures will feel more like November. And two, much of the region could really use the rainfall.

Thursday

Temperatures today are likely to climb into the low-80s ahead of the frontal passage, but mostly cloudy skies should limit them from going much higher. There may be some very scattered showers today ahead of the front, but the better rain chances will come late this afternoon, evening, and overnight as the front slogs through. This will not be a classic front that blasts into Houston out of the north with colder and drier air immediately, rather the cooler air will percolate into the region gradually overnight and on Friday. So don’t expect an immediate change in the air mass. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s.

As for rain, most of the area will see between 0.25 and 1 inch overnight and into Friday morning, with the usual potential for some areas to see higher bullseyes. So don’t expect anything extreme in terms of rainfall, but nearly all of us should at least see a bit of a soaking.

Friday

This will be a gray, damp, and chilly day. Rain chances are about 60 percent, with high temperatures gradually dropping during the daytime as the air mass changes. Highs will be in the low 60s for most of the day, with lows falling into the 50s overnight.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will bring more of the same. The cold front is going to move into the Gulf of Mexico and then should more or less stall. This will help funnel disturbances into the area this weekend that should support high rain chances, particularly on Saturday, and particularly closer to the coast. These will generally be on-again, off-again showers, so if you have outdoor plans this weekend they’re in serious doubt, especially for locations south of Interstate 10. Skies should be mostly cloudy regardless, with highs of around 60 degrees, and lows in the upper 50s. I don’t have any serious flooding concerns, but we probably are looking at accumulations in some locations of 2 to 4 inches by the end of the weekend.

Next week

Rain chances slacken a bit early next week, but I’d still peg them at 50 percent or so daily through Tuesday for areas closer to the coast (lesser inland). This will help keep a limit on highs as well, likely in the low- to mid-60s. We probably will start to warm up some headed into next weekend, perhaps into the mid- to upper-70s. I don’t have a lot of confidence after that, which means that at this point I don’t have much intelligible to say about the Thanksgiving forecast. It’s still two weeks away, after all, and only a turkey would try to make such a prediction.

We topped out at 87 yesterday at Bush Airport, about 12 degrees above normal for the date. We have one more fairly hot day, two more real soupy days, and then the weather pattern for Southeast Texas should change beginning late Thursday or Friday. We abruptly shift into a cool and rather unsettled pattern heading into next week.

Today

Look for basically a repeat of what we experienced yesterday. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s with a fair bit of humidity. We should see a good deal of sun with some passing clouds at times. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph and some gusts will be with us as well.

Thursday

Consider Thursday the start of the transition. It will again be warm and humid, with morning lows in the 60s, but we will see a good bit more cloud cover by Thursday mid-morning or afternoon. Coverage of showers with the approaching cold front should begin to increase Thursday afternoon, especially off to the north and west of Houston. Normally I would say the rain may arrive quicker, but with a lack of any Arctic air push behind this front, I would expect just a gradual increase in rain coverage from northwest to southeast through the latter half of the day. Basically, if you have Thursday afternoon plans, include an umbrella. Highs should be in the 80s but a couple degrees less warm than today.

Friday

A gray day. We are expecting periods of showers with some steadier rain possible at times. It will be noticeably cooler with temperatures generally holding in the 60s all day and perhaps a slow drop toward evening. Not exactly cold, but certainly cool. The cold front will push offshore and likely stall somewhere. That front will act as a focal point for disturbances in the coming days, so where it parks is important for rain chances.

Weekend and beyond

I’ll preface this by saying there is a high degree of uncertainty in the exact day to day weather between Saturday and Tuesday or Wednesday. We have several systems to watch that will be capable of delivering periods of rain. I would expect a showery, if not rainy Saturday, especially south of I-10. Our highest confidence is that Saturday may be a fairly damp day for Houston and points south.

Sunday could see breaks of sun north and clouds and showers south. Monday should see more clouds than sun with a rain chance. Tuesday would see clearing, followed by a quiet Wednesday and Thursday. But as I said, there is very little confidence in the specifics here.

Specifics, details, and more are a long way from being settled, but there is the potential for several inches of rain over the course of the next week, especially south of Houston. The best chance for this may be around Corpus Christi and up through Matagorda Bay to Freeport and Lake Jackson, with diminishing rain chances as you go north. But much will depend on exactly what happens with Thursday’s front, where it stalls out, and what it does into next week.

One thing we’re fairly confident in is that temperatures will remain cool due to this pattern. Look for highs in the 60s this weekend and early next week, warming into the 70s by late week. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s. We will have more on Thursday!

Good morning. The Houston region faces three more warm days before a significant change in our pattern brings improved rain chances and colder air. We’re not looking at very dry air and sharply cold nights, as the region experienced a week ago. But rather we’re going to see mostly cloudy weather for awhile, with days in the 60s, lows in the 50s, and healthy rain chances. We’ll begin to warm back up by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

Tuesday

Before that we’re going to see some more weather in the mid-80s, with humid air. Highs today will generally be in the mid-80s, with mostly sunny skies, and southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph. Low temperatures tonight may briefly drop into the upper 60s in Houston, but there won’t be much (if any) chill in the air. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of very light showers.

Wednesday

Did you like Tuesday’s weather? Good. Because Wednesday is going to be basically the same.

Thursday

This day will begin similarly to Tuesday and Wednesday, but change will quite literally be in the air. High temperatures probably will be a couple of degrees cooler due to some more cloud cover. Some slight rain chances will start to pick up during the afternoon and evening hours, ahead of, and along with a front moving into the region. The front probably will push into Houston during the overnight hours and off the coast by Friday morning.

Friday

This will be a gray and cooler day, with highs in the 60s. So it won’t be super cold, but it will be chilly with on and off precipitation. In terms of accumulations, I’m still not confident, but I would bet that most of the area picks up between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain, with the usual possibility of outliers. So at this point I don’t really have flooding concerns. Accumulations will likely be higher to the west of Houston than to the east. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

My confidence in the weekend forecast also remains fairly low. There could be a break in showers on Saturday, Veteran’s Day, for inland areas away from the coast. The challenge for the forecast is that the front and its associated moisture are unlikely to push all that far into the Gulf of Mexico, so we’re going to see the potential for lingering showers this weekend, and next week. The bottom line is that we’re looking at a pair of cloudy days in the 60s this weekend, with a healthy chance of light to moderate rainfall each day. At this point I’d say Sunday has a slightly better chance of rain than Saturday. We’ll see.

Next week

This gray and wet pattern will persist into early next week, likely at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. So that means more partly to mostly cloudy skies and ongoing highs in the 60s or so. Total rainfall accumulations (see map above) are going to add up over the the next week, likely with 1 to 4 inches for most of the metro area.

We’re probably going to transition to a somewhat sunnier and warmer pattern for the second half of the week. Think highs in the 70s, with lower rain chances. This warming trend will continue into next weekend, at which point another front is likely in the cards. But whether that comes on Saturday, Sunday, or Monday, I cannot say.