The temperature this morning has fallen to 63 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and I can’t help but wonder when we’ll see temperatures below 65 degrees in Houston again. Maybe in about 10 days, or maybe not until September? In any case, a much warmer and more humid pattern is coming with high temperatures near or above 90 degrees for the next week after today.

Thursday

As high pressure slides away it will be replaced by a more pronounced onshore flow and a more unstable atmosphere. For today, that means partly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Winds will be out of the south at 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph later this afternoon. There will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in Houston tonight, but the bigger threat for severe weather is well to the west of the metro area over central Texas and into the Brazos Valley. Overall rain chances in Houston tonight are probably 20 percent or so. Lows will only drop into the low-70s.

Friday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist on Friday, but for the most part we’re looking at mostly cloudy skies and warm, humid weather. Expect high temperatures to reach about 90 degrees, with southerly winds. This day will really feel like “early summer” in Houston, and the sticky conditions will stick around for awhile. Lows Friday night only drop into the mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend. If you’re looking for sunshine this weekend, the middle of the day on Saturday is probably your best bet, when skies may become partly sunny for several hours. Otherwise, clouds will be more common than clear skies. Isolated showers are possible on both days along with the sea breeze, but I would peg their chances at only about 10 or 20 percent each day. Highs will be around 90 degrees, or in the low 90s, for both weekend days. Are y’all ready to sweat?

Next week

Next week will not yield much change in our weather, at least not right away. Look for high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees most days, with lows in the mid-70s. Rain chances are going to start out at 20 percent or so, but could increase significantly by the latter part of the week in response to changes in the upper atmosphere. But my confidence in that portion of the forecast is low. Just know that heat and humidity are going to be your best and constant friend for awhile.

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• Schedule an HVAC checkup. Now is the time to schedule a tune-up with an HVAC service professional to ensure your system is running at its best. Just as you wouldn’t take your car out for a long road trip without getting serviced, you don’t want to operate your A/C system during the long, hot summer without proper maintenance. Schedule a multi-point checkup to ensure your system is running at its best.
• Reduce the temperature on your electric water heater to 120°F. You could save three to five percent in energy costs per year.
• Check air filters monthly and replace as necessary. A clean air filter can keep your A/C running at peak condition.
• Avoid using heat-producing appliances like the clothes dryer, dishwasher, or oven during the hottest times of day. These appliances can cause your A/C to work harder to keep your home cool.
• Install a programmable thermostat, like a Nest, and you can save an estimated 10 percent a year on cooling and heating costs. You can schedule it to only run when you’re home, so you don’t waste energy cooling an empty space. And, the Nest also learns your schedule, can sense when you’re away and automatically adjusts the temperature to help you conserve
• Use blinds or curtains during the summer to reduce solar heat gain. Sunlight can increase the demand on your air conditioner by as much as 30 percent.

Find additional energy efficiency tips by clicking here.

Some people don’t like to talk about dewpoints because they’re confusing. But they’re a really helpful way to quickly assess how stick the air will feel. The scientific definition of a dewpoint is the temperature to which the air must be cooled to achieve a relative humidity of 100 percent. So if the air temperature is 70 degrees—which may sound comfortable—and the dewpoint is also 70 degrees it’s going to feel really sticky outside. But you don’t have to remember that definition for dewpoints, just this handy guide:

Dewpoints in the mid-50s or below: The air is dry and comfortable

Dewpoints in the mid-60s: The air starts feels somewhat sticky during the day, and somewhat muggy in the evenings

Dewpoints in the mid-70s or higher: Oh my god I’m dying.

I am sorry to say that today, specifically the period from around noon to late afternoon, is going to be our last shot of dewpoints in the 50s for awhile. After today we’re looking at dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the foreseeable future. While we may get a front to knock them back in 10 or more days, it is by no means a certainty. Welcome to May.

Wednesday

After some fog and clouds this morning, skies are going to clear out and leave us with a mostly sunny day. This, combined with the slightly drier air mentioned above is going to allow temperatures to pop up into the mid- to upper-80s. Winds will be slight, at 5 to 10 mph, generally from the southeast. Some clouds return tonight, but lows should drop into the mid-60s for all but coast areas. This probably will be our last night in the 60s for quite a while.

Thursday

As high pressure moves off, the region will open up to a more pronounced flow off the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in more humidity and clouds, to go along with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. With increased moisture the region may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday evening and overnight. The most likely areas for this will be north and west of the metro area, in places such as College Station and Conroe. I would not expect anything particularly severe. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This three day period will be hot and humid. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies each day, with daytime highs around 90 degrees or slightly above. Rain chances are not zero, and there will probably be a few isolated showers each day. But if you’re planning outdoor activities things should be fine as long as you have plan for some temporary shelter. Which to be clear, probably won’t be needed. In addition to hot days, nights will be warm and sticky, with lows only dropping into the mid-70s.

Next week

The overall pattern does not change much next week. Daytime temperatures may drop a degree or two, but the humidity should remain more or less the same. Some better rain chances may pop up by the middle or end of next week. We’ll see.

After this morning, Houston has two more somewhat cool nights—with lows in the 60s and not oppressively high dewpoints—before things begin to warm up toward the weekend. By Friday morning we’re going to see lows only in the 70s with more humidity and well, that’s a fairly typical pattern for summer-time weather. So let’s talk about summer, which typically lasts about five months in Houston.

By strict definition “meteorological” summer runs from June through August, and “solstice” summer runs from June 21 through September 22 this year. For me, Houston’s summer typically runs from about mid-May through mid-October. Here are the four phases:

• Early summer: When we first start to see 90-degree temperatures with some regularity, but some nights in the 60s are still possible, and there’s still the thinnest hope of a weak front
• Mid summer: When highs run from 90 to 95 degrees, and nights are sultry, but you know it could still get worse
• High summer: Somewhere between late July and early September there’s a period where temperatures reach the upper 90s to low 100s and you realize, “Ok, this really is the worst.”
• Late summer: This is the period in September and early October when days grow shorter and we usually see the first front or two of the season. But most of the time it’s still hot.

We’re going to reach early summer this weekend, when we probably will see a handful of 90-degree days.

Tuesday

Today will be the last of three days with temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. High pressure will help to maintain an easterly flow, so we’re going to see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with clouds likely becoming more predominant later this afternoon. Winds will be light, out of the east. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will reach the mid-80s, and we’re going to see a fair bit of sunshine. For a few hours on Wednesday afternoon we should actually see dewpoints drop into the 50s, which is going to be our last smidgeon of dry air for awhile. So maybe step outside and enjoy that last bit of light humidity. Because you know what’s coming, right? Winds will be light, and overnight lows will again drop into the mid-60s.

Thursday

We’ll see one more day with temperatures in the mid-80s, but with more clouds than Wednesday. Winds will also be more pronounced out of the south, gusting to 20 mph or even a bit higher. This, my friends, is the full-on return of the onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, lows on Thursday night will only drop into the low 70s. There is a slight chance of light showers on Thursday night.

Friday

Despite mostly cloudy skies, we’re going to see warm and humid weather on Friday, with highs near 90 degrees. Rain chances are about 20 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures of around 90 degrees. Given the moisture and a bit of instability to work with, we could see some scattered showers or possibly even a thunderstorm each day. But overall chances are probably only on the order of 20 percent. If you have plans, we’ll try to refine this forecast in the days ahead.

Next week

Temperatures back off a bit next week, maybe. Rain chances perhaps will go up. I’d ballpark chances at 20 to 40 percent each day, but my overall confidence is low. The humidity looks to stick around. The models are hinting at a chance for a weak front in 10 to 14 days, but that is far enough in the future that I’d probably not even be writing that in pencil yet. Settle in, y’all. Summer is at the gates.

Good morning. Houston just experienced what was very likely its final truly spring-like weekend of the season, with temperatures bottoming out at 53 degrees on Sunday morning. We’re about five degrees warmer this morning, and after a few more nights in the 60s, lows are headed to the 70s by Friday morning, and we probably will stay there for awhile.

In truth, it has been a splendid spring. We have seen mild weather since mid-February, and while March was a few degrees above normal, April was a few degrees below normal. The bottom line is that we’ve had about 75 days of mostly temperate days and mostly cool-ish nights. To top it off, April brought some widespread rains that provided our region with a nice foundation of moisture heading into the hotter time of year. After these April showers, only Brazoria County is experiencing slightly drought-like conditions.

Of course all good things must come to an end. We still can see decent cold fronts in May, but time is running out. And there is scant sign of the next front in the models through the middle of the month. While things can certainly change, it seems pretty clear that spring is ending, and pre-summer has begun. For the next four to five months we can expect predominantly humid conditions, with warm to hot days. Some of you live for this weather, to which I say bless your hearts.

Monday

Quiet weather will prevail for much of this week due to a pattern known as an “omega block,” in which the pressure pattern over the continental United States looks like the Greek letter omega (Ω). With this pattern high pressure persists over the central part of the country while the coastal regions are under the influence of low pressure. For Houston that will mean partly sunny to mostly sunny weather through Thursday with moderate temperatures.

Expect highs today to reach about 85 degrees with mostly sunny skies. Light winds will turn more southerly this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Rain chances are zero.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Expect a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the mid-80s. Lows will again be in the 60s. Winds will generally be light, out of the east and southeast. Humidity will be slowly rising, but not reaching oppressive levels. So these days should be fairly nice.

Thursday and Friday

A more pronounced onshore flow resumes by Thursday or so, and this will lead to more humid air. Highs may hold on in the mid-80s on Thursday, but by Friday we’ll see temperatures close to 90 degrees. Both days have a slight chance of seeing some light rain, along with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks warm, with highs of around 90 degrees, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows by this point will only be dropping into the mid-70s—so almost summertime lows. Rain chances are sort of a question mark at this point. The air will be moistening, and we’re going to see a few disturbances pass overhead. But is it all going to come together and produce some rain? I’ll broad-bush some 30 percent chances for both days, and hope to get a more precise forecast for you in a day or two.

Next week

The pattern we see this weekend looks set to continue for most of next week. So lots of upper 80s and possibly lower 90s, to go along with warm-ish nights. As I said, welcome to pre-summer, Houston.