Good morning. Houston’s not hot, but definitely not cold, weather will continue for several more days. In the meantime, while we can expect plenty of things to fall out of the sky, rain drops are unlikely to be among them. Instead, we should see the continuation of high season for tree pollen in Houston. It is everywhere in the air at the moment, and this pattern is unlikely to change for at least the next week. As for rainfall, chances may pick up about 8 to 10 days from now.

Wednesday

If you’ve been paying attention to the weather this week, then you have a pretty good idea of what to expect today outside. Coastal areas will see fog this morning. Mostly cloudy skies to start the day may break up just slightly during the afternoon hours to provide a little sunshine. And for most of us, high temperatures will be climbing into the mid-80s to make for a warm day.

If you’re heading to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this evening, you can once again count on mild conditions. Temperatures this evening will be in the upper 70s, with moderate southerly winds. Rain chances are near zero. Overnight lows in Houston will only drop to around 70 degrees, or slightly below that the further inland one goes.

Thursday

Basically, a carbon copy of Wednesday.

Friday

By late Thursday night or early Friday, a weak—an oh so very weak—front will be approaching the Houston region from the north. It’s going to stall out somewhere, and the models are still a bit uncertain where. At this point, if I’m forced to predict, I’d say it stops north of Interstate 10. The bottom line is that, for now, I’d expect most of the area to see a warm day in the 80s, albeit with a slight 10 to 20 percent chance of rain. Lows on Friday night may drop into the low- to mid-60s for areas north of Interstate 10, due to the influence of the front, but humidity levels aren’t going down very much.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be one of the warmest weekends of 2023 to date. Saturday should see highs in the low to mid-80s with partly sunny skies, with Sunday seeing highs jump into the upper 80s due to a warmer westerly flow. On Sunday you’ll probably also notice the winds out of the west, gusting to 20 mph or higher. At some point on Sunday, perhaps during the afternoon, or perhaps later in the evening or overnight, a more substantial front will work its way into Houston. This one should go all the way to the coast and offshore. Lows on Sunday night will be cooler as a result. At this point the frontal passage looks mostly dry, in terms of rainfall.

Next week

Said front will give us a few days of cooler, and probably mostly sunny weather to start next week. We’re talking mostly about highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. After a warming trend, a second front may push into the region by Friday-ish. At this point the models are still holding onto a chance for decent rain accumulations with this front, but since we’re talking about a forecast nine days from now, I would not hold my breath. But golly, we sure could use some rain.

Houston’s warm and mostly humid—but largely rain-free—weather will continue through the weekend. As a matter of fact, highs may really pop up on Sunday ahead of front that will send us back toward more March-like weather.

Tuesday

With high pressure in place, and a warm southerly flow, today will be fairly warm with high temperatures in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies. Only coastal areas will remain in the upper 70s. Winds will be light, and generally from the south or southeast.

If you’re heading to the rodeo, you can expect mild conditions. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s before the show, falling to the low- or mid-70s with moderate southerly winds afterwards. Skies will be mostly cloudy this evening, and we can expect overnight lows to only briefly drop into the upper 60s in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

These days will bring more of the same, which is to say highs in the mid-80s, partly sunny skies, and warm nights. Daytime winds will become a bit greater each day, perhaps gusting to 15 to 20 mph out of the south by Thursday afternoon.

Friday

A weak front will slowly drift down into Houston on Friday morning, but there is some question about how far it will progress. At this point, I think it has a decent chance of reaching the coast, in which case we will see some slightly drier air. (There looks to be little likelihood of rain with said front). In any case, Inland areas may only see highs in the 70s on Friday, with the coast being a little warmer. Low temperatures on Friday night may drop into the low 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

To be clear, the weekend forecast remains in flux. But what I think will happen is that the area may see some lingering dry-ish air from the front, but the onshore flow will be pushing back into the area. Accordingly we should see high temperatures in the ballpark of 80 degrees with a fair amount of sunshine. In terms of warmth, Sunday could be fairly hot. This is because we’re going to see a more westerly flow, and this probably will make temperatures pop up into the upper 80s.

Next week

Some sort of stronger front will arrive by early next week, likely on Monday. This should set the stage for a few days in the 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s, or thereabouts. In other words, it should feel a little bit more like March, rather than late April or May. Rain chances may start to perk up toward the end of next week, which would be a welcome development for our drying grounds. I’ll have more on that tomorrow.

Good morning. I sure hope you were able to enjoy some time out of doors this weekend. Sure, some people may quibble that the temperature was a tad warm on Sunday, or note that tree pollen levels are rather high. But in terms of two sunny days, with dry air and moderate temperatures, you’re not going to beat the weather we just experienced in Houston. This past weekend sits high on my list of finest weekend weather of the year for 2023.

As for what’s ahead, well, the forecast is pretty vanilla. While we had been expecting a fairly strong front to push into the region toward the end of this week, it now looks like the colder air associated with this system will largely get shunted off to the east of Houston. The bottom line is that our weather will be moderate for awhile.

Monday

As a warmer, southerly flow returns to the area, we’re seeing some scattered fog this morning as dewpoints and temperatures are the same. Skies will become partly sunny later today, with high temperatures reaching about 80 degrees. Winds will be light, out of the south or southeast.

Conditions for the rodeo this evening will be mild, with temperatures in the mid-70s, light winds, and somewhat humid air. There really are no concerns if you’re heading to the show. Clouds build again tonight with lows only dropping to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

These will more or less be the same day in terms of weather. We’re looking at high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Each day should see slightly progressively stronger southerly winds, with gusts of up to 20 mph possible by Thursday or so. Low temperatures will be around 70 degrees, with cloudy nights. Fog will be possible each morning.

Friday

Last week we expected a front to move all the way through Houston by Friday, bringing in substantially colder air. Well, I’m sorry to disappoint those of you who like cold weather, but it’s not happening. Such is the peril of forecasting the weather more than a week out. Rather the front is going to move toward our region and stall out somewhere along or north of Interstate 10, most likely. That means the region will see a decent chance of showers on Friday, as this boundary stalls out. Accumulations look low at this point, but the precipitation forecast remains fuzzy. Anyway, inland areas may see highs in the 70s on Friday, while areas closer to the coast remain in the low 80s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast is up in the air, so to speak. It’s possible that a slightly drier air mass moves into the region, and if so I would ballpark high temperatures in the mid-70s, with partly sunny skies, and mild nights with lows around 60 degrees. But we could just as easily remain fairly warm and humid. Put me solidly in the to-be-determined camp.

Next week

It does appear as though some sort of front will make it through about one week from today, and that will usher in cooler and drier conditions for most of Spring Break in Houston. How cool? I’m hesitant to say, but I’d guess we’ll see nights in the 40s or 50s.

Short on time this morning? No worries. It’s a simple two word forecast the next 3 days: Nice weather.

For those of you that crave details, our analysis, and levity, read on.

Today through Sunday

Well, it certainly has changed a bit since yesterday morning! The map below shows 24 hour temperature changes as of 6:30 this morning, and much of the area is about 20 degrees cooler than Thursday morning.

It’s still breezy outside as well, with 20 mph wind gusts in most places, around 30 mph at the coast, and as high as 40 mph offshore. We will get most of the wind out of the system this morning, and this afternoon looks tranquil and mild with highs in the low-70s.

Both weekend days look great. The edge probably goes to Saturday in terms of comfort. Sunday should see humidity inch up a bit later in the day. We’ll have ample sunshine with lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Big weekend at the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo! We’ve got Bun B’s Southern Takeover tonight, and the weather looks trilling. Temps should be in the upper-60s on the way in and low-60s on the way out. Maybe worth a light jacket for some of you. For Walker Hayes on Saturday, it’s going to be fancy like, with temps in the 70s mostly and perhaps the upper-60s when you’re heading out. Sunday you get the indomitable Zac Brown Band, and you’ll be in the same boat weather-wise with near 80 or so in the afternoon and lower 70s for the evening.

Overall, whatever your plans this weekend, they look great. Unless of course you have pollen allergies, in which case I am sorry. Oak pollen remains through the roof, and there will likely be minimal relief from that for quite some time.

Early next week

As noted above, we do get some humidity back on Sunday. That will transition to a full-fledged face-full of humidity on Monday. Both Monday and Tuesday will feature a mix of clouds and sun with shower chances higher on Monday than Tuesday. We’ll probably top off in the mid-80s, just a touch shy of record highs. Morning lows will be in the 60s to near 70 degrees. Patchy fog is possible, especially at night and in the early morning for coastal areas.

Later next week

Models cannot quite pin down exactly how next week’s front looks. We know a couple things. It’s going to be a strong front in terms of temperatures, ushering in some very chilly air for early March. As Eric noted yesterday, the chances of an actual freeze are quite low at this time, but we’ll continue watching. 40s for lows seem likely at this point by next Friday or Saturday, and 30s are becoming a definite possibility.

Either way, it would appear that the weather is going to change drastically next weekend behind a front that arrives Thursday or Friday. We’ll sort that timing out and get back to you with more on Monday.