Good morning. A low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will wobble a bit closer to the Texas coast today, bringing a chance of showers to coastal counties this afternoon and evening. Otherwise our weather looks to be fairly calm, with a warming trend heading into the weekend before a front arrives on Saturday night. This system may bring a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday
Winds are light this morning, out of the north, and we should continue to see a light northeasterly flow for much of the day. This should help to hold temperatures in the upper 70s despite mostly sunny skies. We should start to see the development of some scattered showers by mid-afternoon due to the Gulf low, and these will remain possible through the late evening hours. A few thunderstorms are possible. Rain chances are still only about 30 percent, with the most likely locations along and south of Interstate 10. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.
Houston will see a pleasantly cool night on Wednesday evening. (Weather Bell)
Thursday
This day will be a lot like Wednesday, albeit with highs a few degrees warmer, about 80 degrees. Rain chances also will be near zero as the aforementioned low drifts away. Expect one more cool-ish night in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees in Houston.
Friday
As the onshore flow resumes, Friday will be more humid with highs in the low 80s and a mix of sunshine in the morning and clouds building in during the afternoon. Overnight lows will only drop to around 70 degrees.
Saturday
The first half of the weekend will be warm, likely in the mid- to upper-80s, with mostly cloudy skies. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during the afternoon and evening hours, but again we don’t quite have enough information about the atmosphere to really say whether some strong storms will develop. So for now, the best I can say is that there is the potential for these storms ahead of the front, which will move in late Saturday night.
Houston’s weather for this rest of this week: Not too hot, and not too cold. (Weather Bell)
Sunday and beyond
Sunday and Monday should be pleasant, sunny days with drier air and high temperatures around 80 degrees. Lows should be in the upper 50s. Any outdoor activities look just fine.
By Tuesday the onshore flow will be bringing clouds and humidity back to the area, and this may combine with an atmospheric disturbance to bring a healthy chance of rain to Houston by as early as Tuesday night. Temperatures during the second half of next week look reasonably warm, in the mid-80s for the area with fairly humid air. So it goes as we get into the second half of April.
If you check a radar this morning you can see showers offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. These are associated with a low pressure system in the Gulf. If this were a few months later in the year we would be tracking this closely, but in April? Not so much of a concern. However, a few of these showers may migrate onshore into coastal counties today and Wednesday. We’re also tracking the as-yet uncertain possibility of storms on Saturday in association with a passing cold front.
Nearly all of Texas is seeing a pleasant springtime morning on Tuesday. (Weather Bell)
Tuesday
Mostly the Gulf low will send us a drier northerly flow, as our region lies on its western edge. For today, that means a mostly cloudy morning with some clearing skies later this afternoon. Highs will reach about 75 degrees, with light northerly winds. With dewpoints in the 50s, humidity levels will be reasonably low for mid-April. As mentioned above, areas near the coast may see a passing shower due to the Gulf low. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the upper 50s.
Wednesday
This day should be rather similar to Tuesday, with highs in the mid-70s, and another chance at a passing shower for coastal areas. Lows on Wednesday night will again drop into the upper 50s.
Thursday and Friday
As the low pulls away, we’ll start to see a more southerly flow. If you’ve lived in Houston for any time period at all, you’ll well know that means warmer and more humid air. Highs will reach about 80 degrees on Thursday, and into the low- to mid-80s on Friday under partly to mostly sunny skies. By Friday night lows will only drop to around 70 degrees.
Saturday’s highs will be warm ahead of the next front. (Weather Bell)
Saturday
The weekend will start out warm, with partly sunny skies and highs climbing into the mid- to upper-80s for much of the area. Far inland parts of the region may not get that warm, depending on the timing of a cold front. But wait, there’s uncertainty beyond the timing. While the atmosphere looks to be rather unstable, an important factor for storms, there may not be enough shear to really get strong thunderstorms going. We probably won’t know what is going to happen for another day or two, until we get into the realm of higher resolution models. Until then, you need to at least account for the possibility of showers, thunderstorms, and possibly severe weather on Saturday afternoon and evening in Houston. It is by no means a slam dunk, but it is certainly a possibility.
Sunday
The second half of the weekend looks drier, cooler and calmer, with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows should drop into the mid-50s, or thereabouts. So, pretty darn nice.
Next week
The cooler air will stick around for a couple of days before we start to warm up next week. There are hints in the models about more rain in the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame next week. But at this point, who knows? Not this forecaster.
Good morning. I hope everyone enjoyed the not-too-hot and not-too-cool weather over the weekend. It provided a nice antidote to the rain showers last week which, in turn, provided a nice boost of moisture to help our yards and trees and flowers as we get deeper into spring. This week will see mild conditions before some uncertainty arrives for this weekend. While I don’t envision widespread storms, there is the potential for some rainfall, and possibly thunderstorms.
Monday
Our weather today should be a lot like Sunday, in that we will see partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-70s and a moderate amount of humidity. Winds will again be light, perhaps 5 to 10 miles out of the northeast. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of a light shower later this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will drop to around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland, to go along with mostly cloudy skies.
A low pressure system will be wobbling about the northern Gulf of Mexico for a few days this week. Most of its precipitation should remain offshore. (Weather Bell)
Tuesday
Our moderate weather continues. You may be asking yourself, why are we seeing a prolonged period of northeasterly winds? Should not the onshore flow resume at some time? The answer is that a low-pressure system is wobbling around off shore, in the Gulf of Mexico. This is not a major concern for us weather-wise, but it will give us a pleasant pattern through Wednesday or Thursday in terms of light easterly-northeasterly winds and moderate humidity.
However, there are some indications that the low may get close enough to the Texas coast on Tuesday and Wednesday to produce some scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, especially for areas south of Interstate 10. Overall chances remain low, however, in the 20 to 30 percent range. Highs will be in the mid-70s, otherwise on Tuesday. Lows drop to around 60 in Houston.
Wednesday and Thursday
Aside from a moderate chance of showers on Wednesday, these days should see temperatures in the upper 70s with mostly sunny skies. Lows may drop into the upper 50s under the influence of the northeasterly flow.
Lows on Thursday morning may be the coolest of the week. (Weather Bell)
Friday
This day looks warmer, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s. Lows Friday night will be warm, perhaps dropping to only 70 degrees.
Saturday and Sunday
We’re going to have to write the weekend forecast in pencil, I’m afraid. A front will be diving down through Texas, and some of the ingredients needed for a line of storms will be present, including instability. However at this point there is no slam dunk in terms of such conditions, and the front could pass through Saturday night or Sunday morning with a minimum of fuss.
The bottom line is that right now I can confidently predict warm conditions on Saturday, with highs somewhere in the 80s. There is also a healthy chance of rain. I’ll put in 50 percent as a placeholder, but it could go higher, during the daytime and evening, ahead of the front. Lows on Saturday night will depend on the timing of the front.
After the front’s passage, beginning Sunday and probably lasting through Tuesday, conditions look pleasant, with mostly sunny skies, highs perhaps in the upper 70s, and cool but not cold nights.
Well, we hope everyone got some sleep last night. For parts of the area, it was quite the noisy evening. Here’s the rainfall since yesterday evening:
This map shows rain totals from Thursday evening through Friday morning. The heaviest rain fell south and west of Downtown Houston and out toward Sugar Land and Fort Bend County. A small area of extreme rain fell south of Lake Charles. (NOAA)
Rain totals since yesterday evening have been certainly manageable by Houston standards with the main issue being minor street flooding and/or ponding. The heaviest rain fell from near Memorial Park through Alief into Sugar Land, with about 2 inches, give or take. Galveston received around an inch of rain, but it’s also been quite breezy there, with winds gusting as high as 49 mph (before 2 AM). We fortunately missed out on extreme rainfall yesterday and overnight. That hit just south of Lake Charles, where as much as 8 to 10 inches of rain fell.
Today starts the transition out of this wetter pattern, setting up a cloudy but overall fair Easter weekend.
Friday
We think the worst of the rain is over for Houston. However, that doesn’t mean all the rain is over. Expect off and on showers, drizzle, or light rain today across the area. Our higher resolution modeling is trying to fire back up a period of slightly heavier rain and storms later today to the west of Houston. So I would not be shocked to see one more round of perhaps some moderate to heavy rain and thunder later today or this evening.
Heavier rains should be mostly over with in Houston, but up to another inch or so is possible in some spots with lingering showers later today. (Pivotal Weather)
With all that said, we will discontinue the Stage 1 flood alert. We do think some minor ponding is still possible, especially in areas that have seen a good bit of rain since Wednesday, but for the most part, we should be able to manage what’s left to come without too much trouble. As always, use care with the wet roads.
Outside of rain, today looks cloudy and cool. Temperatures will warm only a bit from where they’re currently sitting (50s from Houston N & W, 60s S & E of Houston).
Saturday & Sunday
We can’t completely rule out rain tomorrow, but at this point it looks like any chances will be mostly in the morning and mostly minor in nature. Expect a good deal of clouds for Saturday, with morning lows in the 50s, warming into the low-70s.
The European model cloud cover forecast for Easter morning shows a good deal of clouds (in blue) over most of the region. Clearing should commence by afternoon. (Pivotal Weather)
The biggest problem this weekend will be cloud cover. We are going to have a lot of low level moisture “trapped” under an inversion (or “cap”) in the atmosphere. In addition, we’re going to have middle and high level clouds overhead too. On Sunday, we lose those higher clouds, so hopefully the sun will scour out some of the low clouds during the late morning or afternoon.
Temperatures for Easter morning will be cool with 50s in much of the area and low-60s from Houston south to the coast. (Pivotal Weather)
So, for Easter Sunday, expect morning clouds giving way to some afternoon sunshine. We’ll have morning lows, as seen above, generally in the 50s to low-60s. The afternoon will depend on sunshine, but we will call it mid-70s on average for now. Rain chances won’t be quite zero, but they are low.
Monday & Tuesday
For Monday, we may be able to squeeze out a few showers in the area, but skies will be partly sunny for the most part. Morning lows will be near 60, with highs in the mid-70s once more. Tuesday looks very similar, so we’ll simply copy and paste Monday’s forecast for now, but we may need to downgrade Tuesday a bit when we get closer.
Mid to late next week
The rest of next week looks pretty decent here in Houston. I would suspect we see increasing sunshine and also increasing temperatures, along with slowly increasing humidity. Look for highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s by the end of the week. We may want to watch for slightly higher shower chances Wednesday, but overall it looks fine right now.
One item of curiosity: The Gulf of Mexico may see some shenanigans next week. While we aren’t looking at anything serious, and we are not looking at anything in Texas right now, we may be looking at “a thing.”
Models are developing some sort of upper low and surface low over the north-central Gulf next week. This should keep our weather mostly dry for later next week as long as this stays as forecast, while bringing some rain and/or breezy conditions to areas to our east. (Tropical Tidbits)
Models have been pretty consistent in some type of surface low pressure developing under an upper level low pressure system in the north-central Gulf and slowly working inland between New Orleans and Panama City, FL. It’s not tropical in nature, as other meteorological processes are driving this, but it could bring some rain and modestly gusty winds to parts of the Gulf Coast well east of our area later next week. There has never been a tropical storm that has formed in the Gulf in April that we know of, and frankly, this system is probably too close to the coast to have enough time to pull that transition and feat off. Still, if you are planning a trip to the eastern Gulf Coast next week, keep tabs on the forecast and maybe prepare for some less than desirable beach weather.
