Good morning. The first of two cold fronts will arrive in Houston today. This first front will be short-lived, and provide only minimal cooling, before a quick warm-up. However, a second front on Wednesday night will drive temperatures back down to the 30s for a few days. The weekend looks pleasant, and suitable for outdoor activities.

Tuesday

There’s a fair amount going on with today’s weather. We have a few light rain showers developing this morning, as they feed upon a decently moist atmosphere. Winds are also rather blowy, out of the south at 15 mph and gusting to 30 mph or higher at times. A chance of showers, mostly light but perhaps with a few thunderstorms thrown in, will linger through much of the morning before the front moves into the area. Rather than providing a cool down, as skies clear with the frontal passage, highs will bump up to around 80 degrees. Depending on how far you live from the coast, lows tonight will either fall into the low 50s or upper 50s.

Wednesday

The aforementioned front is not going far. It should make it all the way to the Texas coast before stalling and pulling back north on Wednesday morning. This will be noticeable in dewpoints if you step outside. By around midnight on Tuesday, they’ll probably be in the 30s in the urban core of Houston, which is really pretty dry. Eight to 10 hours later, on Wednesday morning, they’ll probably have rebounded into the low 60s. By Wednesday afternoon they’ll be pushing 70 degrees which, along with an air temperature in the mid 70s, will feel pretty sticky. Beneath mostly cloudy skies a few scattered, light showers will be possible on Wednesday as the atmosphere moistens back up. Lows Wednesday night won’t drop much below the upper 60s in most of the region.

Thursday

A second, and stronger front will move through the area early on Thursday, likely reaching downtown Houston before sunrise and pushing off the coast between 7 and 9 am CT. Some scattered showers will be possible between midnight and Thursday morning along with the front, but again these will be mostly light, and inconsequential. Winds will be gusty, out of the north, on Thursday, perhaps up to 30 mph. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid-50s, with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will drop into the 30s except for the immediate coast. Most of Houston will remain above freezing, however.

Friday

Expect a sunny, chilly day with highs in the mid-50s. A few clouds return Friday night, when lows should be similar to Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will be cooler, with highs of around 60 degrees and partly sunny skies. Temperatures will moderate some on Saturday night, only dropping into the mid-40s. This onshore flow will introduce some clouds on Sunday, but we should also see a bit of sunshine as highs reach about 70 degrees. Rain chances are near nil for the weekend, so plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Most of next week looks warm, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees. I’m not seeing much of a signal for rain. Some kind of front may arrive by Thursday or Friday, but overall details are lacking at this point, as one might expect.

This week’s weather could be titled, “A Tale of Two Fronts.” The first will be rather weak and inconsequential—except for some rather blustery wind—and the second will bring in substantially colder air. While I don’t think a freeze is in the cards for the Houston metro area later this week, I’m not entirely ready to rule it out. Along the way we may also see a smattering of rainfall.

Monday

After a chilly weekend, warmer weather is on the way. Southerly winds today along with partly to mostly sunny skies will help raise temperatures into the low 70s. Look for winds out of the south at 5 to 10 mph, becoming stronger tonight with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. As clouds blanket the region later this afternoon and onward, overnight lows will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Tuesday

This will be sort of a weird day with an oddball front. Winds are going to be really strong, mainly from the south, early Tuesday ahead of the front. We could see gusts of up to 35 or even 40 mph. Some scattered showers are possible as the front moves through during the morning hours. While a thunderstorm or two is possible, for the most part I think we’re looking a brief, short-lived showers with the front. After it moves through we’ll see clearing skies, and because this air mass is not all that cold, temperatures likely will actually go up with the sunshine and moderately drier air. Accordingly, much of the region will probably see highs near 80 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-50s Tuesday night, with warmer conditions near the coast.

Wednesday

Tuesday’s front will wash out rather quickly, replaced by a southerly flow. This means Wednesday will be warm and mostly cloudy, with highs again around 80 degrees for most of the area. Winds should be fairly pronounced, out of the south. The week’s second, and much stronger, cold front should arrive on Wednesday night. This will bring another smattering of rain chances, and an influx of drier air by Thursday morning.

Thursday

Thursday looks breezy and colder, with highs perhaps of around 60 degrees to go along with mostly cloudy skies. Any rains should end during the morning hours. As skies clear out some Thursday night, look for lows to drop into the upper 30s in the Houston metro area.

Friday and Saturday

These look like a pair of partly sunny and cooler days, with highs in the 50s. Friday night should drop into the 30s again, with Saturday night a few degrees warmer.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend should see the resumption of a warmer, southerly flow. Look for highs of around 70 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Rain chances are not entirely zero, but they’re pretty low despite the return of Gulf moisture.

Next week

The crystal ball starts to get cloudy by this point, but we should see a few warmer days to start next week before some sort of front moves into the area. Some showers will probably return to the area early next week as well, but I’m not seeing anything to write home about.

As Eric promised yesterday, winter is not yet over folks. Stepping outside today, you’ll notice it feels a bit more like January perhaps. And while we do have warmer weather on the horizon, it’s pretty evident that winter is not quite ready to pack its bags just yet. At the bottom of today’s post, I’ve got a quick update on a some “polar vortexy” things that may be on your mind.

Today

“Blustery” is the word of the day. Winds are going to pick up this morning, and as temperatures stall a bit later this afternoon in the 50s, you’ll notice a little chill to the air.

Northerly wind gusts may exceed 20 to 25 mph at times on land and over 30 mph along the coast (where a wind advisory is posted) and over the water.

Tonight

Winds will stay up some tonight, and temperatures behind today’s cold front will drop into the 40s and probably the 30s in many spots too. The wild card tonight will be how far west clouds are able to pivot. While they probably won’t have a gigantic impact on what you notice tonight, they will likely mean the difference between 40 to 45 degrees for a nighttime low or 35 to 40 degrees, where skies are clear.

Weekend

The weekend looks great for any plans you may have. Sunshine will dominate Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid-50s Saturday and low-60s on Sunday. Morning lows will be in the 30s once more tomorrow night with a light freeze possible in spots north and west of Houston especially.

Next week

The weather is going to be a bit chaotic next week from a pure day to day perspective. In terms of impacts, we don’t see anything too major right now. We have two fronts that look poised to push through the area. The first would come Tuesday after a warm and humid Monday. After a brief cooldown Wednesday, we’d warm up late and into Thursday in time for the next front. Much like today’s front, this one has been flagging a bit of wind with it in various model guidance, so that’s one thing we’ll watch for Thursday afternoon. Behind that front, we’d turn rather chilly Friday and Saturday again. We will sort the details out for you further on Monday.

Stratospheric situation

We are beginning to get some questions about the potential breakdown of the polar vortex over the next couple weeks, with the thesis generally being that as the polar vortex weakens from the top (stratosphere) down (surface), it unloads colder air from the polar regions into mid-latitudes, where most of us live. Or as some misleadingly qualify it: “The polar vortex is coming.”

The catalyst for this would be a sudden warming of temperatures in the stratosphere (or SSW as many of us refer to it). The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang had a good piece on this yesterday with quotes from some experts I follow on social media. It may or may not be paywalled, but the general gist of things is this: There is a sudden warming of the stratosphere over the polar regions, thousands of feet above the surface. It fractures the otherwise stable polar vortex in the stratosphere. A process begins that gradually works its way from the stratosphere into the troposphere (where we live) that could begin a domino effect of perhaps reshuffling the weather pattern in the Northern Hemisphere in such a way that favors colder weather over warmer weather as we head into March.

“Could” does not mean “will.” Nothing is guaranteed, as not all SSWs are created equal, and not all of them lead to a configuration supportive of cold in the Central & Eastern U.S. Researchers are still working to fully understand the factors involved in these types of events that happen every few years, so we still have a lot to learn before we can start discussing anything with confidence. In other words, neither Eric or myself or anyone knows if we’ll see some significant colder weather next month. That being said, as we head into next week and the week of the 20th, it will be interesting to see what the models start showing for the pattern over America. We’ll have a decent idea if this SSW has a meaningful impact on cold risks for the country later next week or early the following week I think. So stay tuned, but if you love cold, keep your expectations somewhat in check.

Good morning. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s this morning for parts of the metro area, and still colder conditions are on the way for Friday and Saturday night, with a light freeze in the cards for inland parts of Houston. In addition, the global models are indicating that another blast of colder air will work its way into the region in a little more than a week. It is too early to say whether this will ultimately bring a freeze into the region during the February 18-20 period, but it’s enough for me to say that winter is not over yet for our corner of Texas.

Also, read to the end of today’s post for an opportunity to join me in watching one of my favorite films later this month. Now, on to the forecast.

Thursday

Today is going to be a great day for weather, one of the best of the year so far. We’ll have sunny skies, dry air, and high temperatures in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. To go along with this, we’ll see very light winds, turning southerly. In other words, conditions will be mild during the daytime. Temperatures will cool off tonight, with lows in the upper 40s.

Friday

Over night a reinforcing front is going to blow into the area, and I do mean blow. We’re not going to see any precipitation with this front, but some time before sunrise the winds are going start blowing pretty precipitously. By Friday morning we should see sustained winds of about 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph or higher. These winds will persist throughout much of the day, and with highs only in the 50s it’s going to be chilly outside. Although the winds will moderate slightly after sunset, it’s still going to be gusty outside. Paradoxically, while this mixing may keep air temperatures a bit warmer—I think most of Houston will remain a few degrees above freezing—it will make wind-chill temperatures feel much colder, in the 20s by Saturday morning. Plan accordingly if you’ll be outside.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be sunny and chilly, with highs in the 50s. As winds die down overnight, they’ll lead to ideal cooling conditions, such that it now looks like Saturday night be the coldest of the week, with a light freeze possible for inland areas of the region.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low 60s. As the flow turns more southerly, lows on Sunday night should drop only into the upper 40s or so.

Next week

As high pressure exits, this more southerly flow will lead to the development of clouds and eventually some rain showers on Monday and Tuesday of next week. The better chances for rain, and possibly thunderstorms, should come on Tuesday. Most of next week looks reasonably warm, with highs in the 70s before a stronger front arrives by Thursday or so. This will drop lows into the 40s, at least, and possibly further depending on the extent of the cold air as outlined in this post’s introduction.

Movies Houstonians Love

A few months ago the Museum of Fine Arts asked me to name my favorite movies, as part of their Movies Houstonians Love series. As a result of this, I’ll be attending a special screening of Dazed and Confused on Saturday, February 25, at the museum’s Brown Auditorium. I can’t wait to hear the film’s fantastic 70s soundtrack blasting from the theater’s sound system. You’re invited to join me, and come say hello. Here is information on tickets, which are moderately priced.