Good morning. After a mostly sunny weekend, some clouds return today, along with a continued warming trend that will push highs into the mid- to upper-70s. The Houston area will see widespread rainfall on Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning, which will bring in the region’s next cool front. This will bring a couple of chilly nights, with lows perhaps in the mid- to upper-30s.

Monday

There is a bit of fog out there, nothing too dense, but take it easy if you run into limited visibility this morning. High temperatures today will climb into the mid-70s beneath partly sunny skies. Later this afternoon you’ll notice winds out of the south, gusting up to 25 mph. This will bring increasing moisture levels that will help set up our next chance of rain showers starting later on Tuesday. Clouds will increase Monday night, with lows dropping only to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Tuesday and Tuesday night

Fog will again be possible on Tuesday morning, and despite mostly cloudy skies this should be our warmest day of the week. Look for high temperatures in the upper 70s, with a few inland areas possibly touching 80 degrees. Most of the daytime should just be gray, but by the afternoon hours we should start to see some scattered, light showers. These may increase in intensity after midnight, as the front approaches and moves into Houston by around sunrise. Lows on Tuesday night will only drop to around 60 degrees ahead of the front.

Wednesday

Rain showers should exit the area pretty quickly after the front’s passage on Wednesday morning, by around noon at the latest. The model guidance for total rain accumulations from the front are all over the place, from less than 0.5 inch to 2 inches. My sense is that a few areas will see heavier rain and thunderstorms, but that the majority of the region will see about 0.5 inch of rain give or take. The bottom line is that I don’t expect this event to be too impactful, although the additional rains will keep yards on the wet side. I’m not anticipating any flooding issues right now. Winds will be breezy out of the north after the front, gusting perhaps to 25 mph. Highs Wednesday will be in the 60s, with nighttime lows falling into the mid-40s for most.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of sunny days. Thursday will be in the 60s, with light northerly winds, and another night in the mid-40s. Friday, however, will be more blustery, with a reinforcing blowing into the area. I don’t expect any rain with this front, but Friday could be gusty with winds blowing up to 30 mph and highs only in the 50s. As temperatures drop into the upper 30s on Friday night, these gusty winds will quickly cool you off. Outdoor activities are not recommended Friday night, therefore.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will be sunny and cool. Next Saturday will, in fact, be a lot like the Saturday just past, with highs near 60 degrees, probably. However, as winds shift to come from the east this weekend, it will set up a more moderate flow for Sunday. As a result look for building clouds on Saturday night, and highs in the mid- to upper 60s on Sunday

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer and cloudier. Monday and Tuesday should see decent rain chances in response to an upper-level system, and I’d look for highs in at least the 70s through much of the week. It is too early to say with any confidence whether a mid-week front will make it all the way through Houston.

The last time Bush Airport reported anything other than overcast or broken overcast skies was back on the morning of January 27th. That week-long streak will end at some point today. Most of the area will see at least some sun, if not full sun before the end of the day, and everyone sees sunshine tomorrow. In addition, we’ve gone over 100 straight hours below 50 degrees, not a particularly big deal, but it has certainly been cold and quite damp. That should end today also. All in all, if you have weekend plans, you can confidently go forth with them.

Today

Most of the area remains under low clouds this morning. You have to get east of about Wallisville and Anahuac or west of Flatonia on I-10 to get into clearing.

The clouds will erode through the day today, allowing the sun to emerge. I think they’ll probably dissipate from east to west through the morning and afternoon. Areas most likely to stay cloudy most of today are probably west of Houston. Once the clouds diminish, look for temperatures to rebound into the 50s over most of the area. Places that stay under clouds may only get close to 50 degrees. Winds will be light in most spots but perhaps a bit gusty over the open water.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday should feature more sun than clouds. Winds will flip back onshore on Sunday, which may allow for a few extra clouds. So Saturday will start chilly, with 30s in most of the area, but we should warm to near 60 or so. But Sunday will start in the 40s and warm to near 70 degrees.

Just a quick note: Models do predict some fog may develop tonight north and west of about Cypress. Anyone in places like Navasota into Bryan or College Station and north toward Huntsville, just be advised that there could be temperatures at or below freezing with fog. That could make travel a bit slick late tonight and early Saturday morning. Once the sun comes up, it will improve quickly. This should not affect the Houston area.

Early next week

Monday should be partly to mostly sunny and warm. You’ll notice a little more humidity creeping back through the day, and there may even be some patchy fog development on the coast. Most places will top off in the 70s. Tuesday should be even warmer despite more clouds, with AM lows in the 60s and daytime highs around 75 or a few better in spots. Again, some fog is possible along the coast.

Next front

Consistent with Eric’s post yesterday, it looks like we can pencil in the next front for Tuesday night or Wednesday. The timing and details still need to be sorted out, but at this point we are looking for showers and storms in some window between Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler, drier air to close out next week. Or at least that’s the line of thinking we’re going to sell to you today. Some models bring back rain chances as soon as Friday, so we’ll see. More on Monday!

Rest of Texas

Interior Texas can continue to thaw out today and begin to assess and repair the damage left behind from this week’s ice storm. There are still nearly 250,000 customers without power across the state. If you plan to travel toward Dallas or Austin or San Antonio or El Paso, road conditions should be clear today through the weekend. As always, check with drivetexas.org for the latest information.

Mostly light rains are falling across the Houston region this morning, with accumulations of around one-half an inch for most of the area overnight. These rains are exiting the area to the east, and should be mostly gone by noon. After this we’ll have a few more chilly days and nights before transitioning to a warmer pattern this weekend. And the sunshine! It’s coming back tomorrow, and will be on full display this weekend. It will make a nice change from the gray.

Thursday

Rains will depart as high pressure moves into the region today. However, as clouds will linger, it’s still going to be a cold day. Expect highs only in the low 40s, with blustery northerly winds that will gust up to about 25 mph adding to the “frigid feelings” party. Fortunately the already slackening rains will end altogether late this morning or during the early afternoon hours. Given today’s highs, it would not surprise me if this is the coldest daytime of 2023 until at least December. So if you’re more of a warm weather person—and I’ve been complained to by enough people about the cold to know that there are a lot of you out there—take some solace in that. Lows tonight will probably drop into the upper 30s.

Friday

Some clouds will remain Friday morning, but we’ll see clearing skies, with plenty of sunshine during the afternoon hours. This will help push high temperatures into the mid- to upper-50s. You’ll still feel those northerly winds at 10 to 15 mph, but they won’t be as brisk as Thursday and Thursday night. Overnight lows Friday, with clear skies, should be the coldest of the week due to efficient cooling and a lack of clouds to insulate surface temperatures. The central Houston area will see lows in the mid-30s, with inland areas seeing colder temperatures and few areas a light freeze far from the coast.

Saturday

This will be a mostly sunny day with highs of around 60 degrees. Moderate winds will shift to come from the southeast, which will mark the beginning of an onshore flow. As a result, lows on Saturday night will be about 10 degrees warmer than Friday night.

Sunday

Expect more sunny weather, with highs reaching about 70 degrees. Winds will again be light. This day will be another winner for those planning outdoor activities this weekend.

Next week

Some clouds will start to return Monday, with continued warming conditions. The first couple days of next week will likely bring highs in the mid-70s with a bit muggier air. And after that? Well, I am sorry to say there is no lot of concurrence in the models we look at for such forecasts. At some point, perhaps on Tuesday night or Wednesday, a front is going to push into the region. It will elevate rain chances, and perhaps bring a few thunderstorms. It’s difficult to say. This probably will knock highs down in the 60s, and lows into the 40s, for the second half of next week. But the details for this forecast will have to come at a later date. For now, bundle up!

February is coming in with a chill, as highs today may only top out in the low 40s. And conditions will be cold for the rest of the week, with a light freeze possible for inland areas on Friday night. But what does the rest of the month look like after that? We should see a return to warmer temperatures next week. And then, the second half of the month looks slightly warmer than normal. After this week it would not surprise me if the Houston region is done with freezing weather for the 2022-2023 winter. Of course that is not an official prediction yet, just a guess.

Wednesday

Today, alas, will feel like the depths of winter. Fortunately, however, temperatures across the metro area this morning are remaining in the upper 30s to about 40 degrees. I say this because some areas are seeing a light rain, instead of a freezing rain. Central and Northern Texas remain in the grip of an ice storm, and travel west of Columbus on Interstate 10, and north of Huntsville, is not advised today or tonight. There are many reports of icing in Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, and other areas of Texas. It is a mess.

Back in the Houston area, light to moderate showers will be possible today and tonight ahead of a front that will finally shove this low pressure system away and clear our skies. Overall accumulations today, tonight, and into Thursday probably will be on the order of 0.25 to 0.75 inch, so this will be more of a nuisance rain rather than something that prompts a flooding concern. But the wetness will just add to the misery of gray skies and chilly winds. Don’t expect highs today to rise above the low 40s, and overnight lows will drop into the upper 30s.

Thursday

Some additional light showers will be possible on Thursday morning before the rains end during the afternoon. Skies will remain gray for awhile, however, so highs Thursday probably will only reach the mid-40s. Thursday night will be fairly unpleasant as northerly winds kick up in the wake of the front, and gust up to 25 mph. So yeah, don’t make any outdoor plans for Thursday night. Lows drop to around 40 degrees.

Friday

Skies will finally start to clear on Friday morning, with sunshine prevailing during the afternoon hours. Winds will be out of the north, but less blustery than Thursday night. Highs should reach the upper 50s. With lesser winds and clear skies, lows on Friday night will bottom out. A light freeze will be possible in Montgomery County, but I think most of the rest of the metro area will remain at least a few degrees above freezing.

Saturday and Sunday

I still expect mostly sunny to fully sunny skies this weekend. Highs on Saturday will reach about 60 degrees, and overnight temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Friday night as the flow turns more southerly. Sunday will be warmer, with highs of around 70 degrees. This will be a welcome balm for those who don’t like the cold.

Next week

The early part of next week looks warmer, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid-70s. Some sort of rain chances return by Tuesday or Wednesday, but it’s not clear to what extent the next front will march all the way into Houston. So for now, I’m putting a big to-be-determined on our weather from Wednesday onward.