Houston now has officially recorded 20 100-degree days this year, which is enough to tie us for fourth all-time for any calendar year. The bad news is that we’re going to see yet another day with widespread triple-digit temperatures across the region today. The good news is that this may be the last one for at least several days with relief on the horizon.

Thursday

It will be another scorcher as high pressure drives inland temperatures above 100 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. Like on Wednesday, we’ll see some scattered showers and thunderstorms fire up along the sea breeze, but overall chances are only about 10 or 20 percent. Overnight lows will again struggle to drop below 80 degrees.

Friday

As high pressure retreats, an upper-level low pressure system will help usher in a surge a tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies, and bump up rain chances for areas that are either east of Interstate 45, along the coast, or both. We’re talking about a 60 or 70 percent chance of rain for these areas, with lesser chances further inland and westward. Overall accumulations won’t be above a few tenths of an inch for most locations, but some areas should see bullseyes of 1 to 2 inches. Highs will be dependent upon clouds and rain, but should hold in the low-90s for much of the area.

Saturday and Sunday

Both weekend days should see highs in the low- to mid-90s, with mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will remain elevated for coastal areas, especially on Saturday. But we’re not looking at anything approaching a washout as showers will be hit or miss, and should move through quickly.

Next week

This should be, dare I say it, a decent week for August? For the most part we’re going to see high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s, and the most likely outcome is that high pressure does not build back over the region. Rather, we should see enough moisture for at least a 30 percent, if not higher, chance of rain each day. For August, man, I’ll take it.

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather for a couple of more days before a low-pressure system brings some relief on Friday. Accordingly, instead of highs reaching 100 degrees for much of the region, we should be down in the low- to mid-90s, along with some decent rain chances this weekend.

Wednesday

For today, however, we can expect widespread highs of 100 degrees away from the coast as the Houston region bakes beneath mostly sunny skies. Rain chances are about 20 percent along the coast this afternoon, and perhaps 10 percent for inland areas. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. The city will struggle to fall below 80 degrees tonight.

Thursday

More of the same.

Friday

An upper-level low pressure system will move into the area, and this will also bring a surge a tropical moisture. As a result we’re going to see a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms. I’d put chances for areas east of Interstate 45 as high as 60 or 70 percent, whereas the potential for rain west of the freeway is probably closer to 50 percent. Accumulations will probably average a few tenths of an inch, but there will be pockets of higher totals. As a result of the rain and pattern change, highs on Friday may top out in the low 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances of 40 percent, or so, will linger through the weekend but coverage should be less than on Friday. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny, and as a result we can probably expect high temperatures to reach the mid-90s.

Next week

Most of next week looks to see fairly typical weather for August. Climatologically, early-to-mid August often is the hottest time of year for Houston, so this means highs generally in the mid-90s for Houston, with warmer conditions for inland areas such as College Station. Rain chances won’t be zero, and there’s a chance we could see a mid-week system that will bring us some additional, much-needed rainfall.

The Atlantic continues to lie dormant as August begins, which is good news for those hoping to avoid hurricanes. While the quiet is almost certainly going to break eventually, each day that goes by in August and September without a storm is a good day.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

Things remain quiet in the Atlantic basin with no real development expected over the next week.

Where to watch in August

As the calendar flips to August, we get into the heart of hurricane season. Basically, mid-August through late September is our marathon stretch. For Houston, our risks in August are still mostly close to home.

Using NOAA’s fantastic historic hurricane tool, we can get a sense of where to watch specific to Houston. Since the 1800s, Houston has had 10 hurricanes pass within 100 miles of downtown in the month of August. If you expand this to include tropical storms, the number increases to 17. With the exception of the 1915 storm (one that is worthy of a blog post of its own one day), all of August’s hurricanes in Houston formed in either the far western Caribbean or Gulf. In other words, while we watch the deep Atlantic and often discuss long-tracking hurricanes, they typically don’t impact us in August. That doesn’t mean they can’t, as 1915 proves, but our attention should be primarily focused close to home this month.

Yes, we’re talking tropical waves that struggle across the Atlantic, but hold together enough to ultimately develop in the Gulf. But we’re also looking for thunderstorm complexes that roll off the Gulf Coast into the open water. Or early season (weak) cold fronts that die off in the Gulf.

Notably, of the 17 total hurricanes and tropical storms (including Harvey) to pass within 100 miles of Houston in August, 15 formed in the Gulf or far western Caribbean. Again, closer to home is where the meat of our risk lies in August. This also means storms can form quickly, so it’s important to have a plan and preparations in place should something form.

Anything to watch now?

If we take a look across the Atlantic Ocean, there’s honestly not much happening at the moment.

We have a couple waves that are disorganized out in the open Atlantic, but none that is currently expected to develop as it comes west. There are a handful of model ensemble members trying to sort of develop one of the next couple waves that emerges off Africa. But as of today at least, no reliable model guidance shows anything in the Gulf over the next 7-10 days or more. That said, with fairly frequent storm clusters hovering near the northern Gulf over the next week or so, I wouldn’t entirely rule out something trying to weakly organize, though I think it would stay east of Texas.

But for August 2nd, this is about as good as it gets. The Atlantic remains stuck on 3 named storms and is now beginning to run below average for the season in terms of storm intensity. Still, using that metric, 92 percent of the season lies in front of us. It’s still far too early to declare the season a “bust,” and it’s critically important to remember that one storm can spoil the whole season for any given place. Alicia did just that to Houston in 1983, the 5th quietest hurricane season on record. So be wary of making bold declarations on August 2nd.

Good morning. Houston faces three rather hot days, with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, before a pattern change heading into the weekend. Friday and Saturday should bring fairly healthy rain chances, although showers will likely still be hit or miss for the region. Most of next week should bring typical August-like weather.

Tuesday

High pressure is starting to build back over the region, and will do so for the next three days. If you’ve been paying attention during June and July of this summer, you’ll understand what that means: sunny skies and hot temperatures. Highs today will range from the low 100s for areas well inland, to upper 90s in the city of Houston to the mid 90s right along the coast. Rain chances are probably about 10 to 20 percent, with the slightly better chances near the coast this afternoon. Winds will be slight, out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Overnight lows will once again only fall to around 80 degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday

More of the same. Wednesday will probably be the hottest day of the week, but the difference will be negligible.

Friday and Saturday

The pattern changes toward the end of the week, as high pressure moves off, and the region opens up to an influx of tropical moisture. It looks like the bulk of this moisture will remain east of Houston, over the Beaumont and Port Arthur areas, but I still think we’ll see scattered, if not widespread showers. With partly sunny skies, look for highs to generally only reach the low 90s for much of the region.

Sunday

There probably will be a little more sunshine, and fewer rain showers, by Sunday. Look for highs in the mid-90s.

Next week

As of now, next week appears likely to bring classic August-like weather to Houston, which is to say sunny skies, highs in the mid-90s, and a smattering of rain chances driven primarily by the afternoon sea breeze.