Good morning. Houston’s heat wave will continue for the foreseeable future, at least through the early part of next week and possibly longer. Temperatures will peak this weekend, likely reaching 100 degrees for much of the area and setting numerous records. With high pressure dominating, rain chances will continue to remain low to non-existent.

This morning I’d also like to address what might perhaps be best characterized as “tropics silly season.” This is when “scary” maps showing a large hurricane striking Texas or other parts of the Gulf coast are shared on social media, as has been happening this week. These forecast maps are typically not falsified. They’re real products, but they are not representative of reality. What I mean is that the computer model has indeed generated such an output, but this output often comes at 12-, or 14-, or even 16-days after initialization, and therefore simply no longer bears any reality toward what will happen. Weather models simply cannot provide this specific of a forecast, that far out.

They key to spotting such tropical scare fodder is to look at the forecast hour of the output. If it is greater than 240 hours (10 days) it can safely be discounted. Take the forecast below from the US Global Forecast System model, which came out on Wednesday morning. Now the GFS model has plenty of uses, but it has a known bias for generating phantom storms at this time of year. Anyone sharing this is doing so out of ignorance, at best, and malevolence, at worst.

The bottom line is that the model may indeed be picking up on increasing tropical moisture in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days time. And something may come of it. But the most likely scenario, by far, is that anything tropical that forms would stay away from the upper Texas coast.

Thursday

Today will be hot and sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 90s. The heat index will near dangerous levels this afternoon so please take care outside. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 70s, except for the coast which will remain in the low-80s. Winds will be light, out of the south.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

More of the same. I’d expect the heat to peak on Saturday and Sunday, with high temperatures reaching 100 degrees for much of the area.

Next week

As winds turn more southerly, we probably will see high temperatures drop back into the upper-90s, and possibly mid-90s. I don’t see much of a chance for a pattern change until at least the second half of next week, and even then it seems that our weather is unlikely to change a whole lot. We shall see.

Good morning. Alas, there is no real change in the forecast: Houston is hot, and we’re going to get hotter. There is no real relief in sight, and rain chances are near zero for the next 8 to 10 days. We are entering a bonafide heat wave, with high temperatures cresting above 100 degrees for much of the region away from the coast for a few days this week. Some people have responded, “Houston is hot in the summer.” And that’s true, it is. But at this time of year the normal high temperature is 92 degrees, not 102 degrees. We have a chance to set several daily high temperatures over the next week.

So yes, Houston is hot in the summer. But we shouldn’t be this hot, this early, in the summer.

Wednesday

High temperatures will generally reach the upper 90s today beneath mostly sunny skies. Winds will be out of the south at 10 mph or, so, with moderately higher gusts. You already know the nights are going to be warm, don’t you? Galveston has broken its record for “high” minimum temperatures the last two nights, with the temperature only dropping to 83 degrees. Expect more of the same in the days ahead.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As high pressure intensifies over the southern United States, Houston will not be spared. Each of these days could hit 100 degrees, with temperatures likely peaking on Saturday. Please take heat and sun precautions when outside during the middle of the day. Skies will be sunny, with moderate southerly winds.

Next week

The overall pattern changes a bit next week, as high pressure ridge starts to ease a little. That probably means our high temperatures will drop into the mid-90s, and perhaps by Wednesday or Thursday of next week a chance of some sea breeze showers will return.

Good morning. Houston’s weather is already hot, and it’s going to get hotter thanks to a strengthening high pressure system. So the big question is when will this pattern break, bringing us some cloudier skies, rain chances, and somewhat cooler daytime temperatures? The answer is: Not any time soon.

Tuesday

Today will be the “coolest” day for the remainder of the week, as high temperatures rising into the low- to mid-90s across the region. Expect mostly sunny skies with southerly winds, perhaps gusting to 20 mph. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the upper 70s for inland areas, and 80 degrees for coastal areas.

Wednesday

Another day like Tuesday, with highs peaking in the mid-90s for most areas.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday

Hello, heat wave. Temperatures will push into the upper-90s to perhaps 100 degrees for much of the area, with hot and sunny skies. Yesterday I mentioned the possibility of a dying front moving into Houston and bringing some relief. Well, that dream is likely dead. Now we’re just going to see sunshine and heat. And then some more sunshine.

Next week

Conditions may moderate a little bit next week, but I don’t see any real rain chances sneaking back into the forecast into the middle or end of next week.

I know it’s a short post today, but there’s not much to say when high pressure has its way.

The weather this week is fairly straightforward, so we won’t be wasting too much of your time or ours. High pressure is building over the area and it will hold sway through the work week. Temperatures should peak by Friday or Saturday, perhaps in the triple digits, before some slight relief potentially arrives later this weekend. We are near the point of the longest days of summer, so you should absolutely be protecting your skin from prolonged sun exposure and taking heat relief measures.

Monday

Highs today will be in the low 90s, with mostly sunny skies. Rain chances are near zero, and the biggest difference from Sunday will be that winds out of the south become a little more pronounced, blowing at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to around 25 mph. Lows on Monday night will be in the upper 70s.

Tuesday

See Monday.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The heat starts to peak during the second half of the week as the ridge intensifies. High temperatures will push into the mid- to upper-90s across the region away from the immediate coast. Some areas have a chance of hitting 100 degrees by Friday or Saturday. TL;DR: Hot, hot, hot.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should bring more of the same, in terms of heat and sunshine. But later on Saturday a weak system may move in from the north to bring some cloud cover, a slight reduction in temperatures, and some slight rain chances. I’d pencil this in for now, however, as this dying cool front may well wash out before reaching Houston.

Tropics

After crossing Florida this past weekend, a tropical system got better organized and developed into Tropical Storm Alex on Sunday. It will pass just north of Bermuda as it moves out to sea and eventually dies. Beyond Alex, there is not really anything to see. A tropical disturbance may spin up in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 7 to 10 days, but for now it’s not something I anticipate affecting Texas weather in any way.