Good morning. We’re watching the possibility of storms, which may or may not break through a capping inversion today and Wednesday. What we’re certain of is that it will continue to be warm and muggy, with highs in the 80s, before a splash of dry air arrives on Wednesday night. Easter weekend still looks warm and mostly sunny, for the most part.

Tuesday

Lows this morning have only fallen into the low 70s for much of the region, and we’ll continue to see a warm southerly flow today with highs in the low 80s and cloudy skies. Winds may gust from the south as high as 20 to 25 mph. There will be battle in the atmosphere between a handful of disturbances pushing through, and whether the moist air at the surface can rise high enough to combine with these systems to produce storm activity. The limiting factor is a layer of warmer air, aloft, that may prevent the moist surface air from lifting too high to feed thunderstorm development.

The most likely time period for the capping inversion to break will be this afternoon and early evening, in which case we might see briefly heavy rainfall, damaging winds, or hail. However the most likely scenario for most of us is probably gray skies, with light rain. Accumulations for most will probably range from 0 to 0.25 inch of rain. So storms will probably be the exception, rather than the norm. Lows tonight will only drop into the low 70s again.

Wednesday

The approach and passage of a weak front on Wednesday and Wednesday night will allow for another chance of rain, but again a capping inversion may inhibit most of this activity. As I don’t think the front will reach our area until later Wednesday, I expect highs in the 80s for Houston, with at times gusty southerly winds. Lows on Wednesday night should drop into the low 60s as moderately drier air moves into the region, likely penetrating all the way to the coast.

Thursday

This should be a mostly sunny day, with somewhat drier air leading to highs in the low 80s, and overnight lows probably dropping into the 60s again. So, pretty nice.

Friday

The onshore flow resumes pretty quickly, so we can expect a mix of sunshine and clouds on Friday, with highs in the 80s, and increasing humidity levels.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast calls for a mix of clouds and sunshine. While we can’t rule out some scattered showers, overall chances are low and I’m reasonably confident things will stay dry. Temperatures will depend on the extent of cloud cover over our region, but I think we’ll probably get into the mid- or even upper-80s. So Easter Sunday could end up feeling fairly sultry—we’re thinking this could be a Stage 3 or even Stage 4 type event for melting chocolate.

Next week

A cold front is still in the cards for next Monday or Tuesday, but the strength of it, and how much of the cold air that will funnel into the United States drops all the way down to the Texas Gulf coast, remains in question. Lows in the 50s remain the most likely possibility, but we shall see.

Happy Monday, everyone. There’s a lot to get to today, from a discussion of our recent windy conditions to warm Easter Sunday weather to the happy possibility that spring-like weather—we’re talking cool and dry nights—may not be done with us yet.

An extra windy spring?

Let’s start with the wind. After breezy northerly winds on Thursday and Friday of last week, the onshore flow returned with avengeance this weekend. On Sunday, wind gusts easily reached 40 to 45 mph and above in some locations. No fewer than three people e-mailed this weekend asking if Houston was having an abnormally windy spring. And I’ve wondered the same thing myself, so let’s investigate. If we look at “normal” winds over the last 30 years, we can see the the highest winds come during the months of February through May, with the peak in April. The average wind speed for April, in Houston, is 8.9 mph. In the chart below, the top row shows the average wind speed for each month, from January through December, in Houston.

Now let’s look at the current year. In February, this year, the average wind speed was 8.7 mph, so a little bit above normal; in March it was 9.3 mph, a little bit more above normal; and so far in April, the average wind speed has been 9.7 mph, nearly 10 percent faster than normal. So by the most basic metric, yes, this spring has been windier than normal. And since spring is already typically the windiest season in Houston—when we often see sharp gradients between the warmer Gulf and colder plains—your perception that it’s quite blowy outside is justified.

Monday

Today will bring mostly cloudy skies and a continued southerly flow. The winds will not be as extreme as on Sunday, but I expect that much of the area will still see gusts in the range of 20 to 30 mph today, especially as we get toward late morning into early afternoon. Despite the clouds, highs will likely get into the mid, or possibly upper 80s today. Most likely, a capping inversion will prevent the development of showers and thunderstorms today (Edit: as of 7:30 am it looks like the cap has broken for central Houston. This is somewhat of a surprise, but I still don’t think storms will be too widespread later today). Lows tonight will probably drop to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Tuesday

We’ll be on cap watch Tuesday, which means that we’ll be watching to see if the capping inversion breaks. An inversion simply means that there is warmer air aloft, which effectively prevents moisture at the surface from rising, and helping to fuel thunderstorms in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This cap is likely to hold during the morning hours, but it could break later in the day. (Or, it could not). Should the cap break, we could see anything from heavy rainfall, to hail and damaging winds, to possibly even a few tornadoes. For now, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has placed nearly our entire region under a “slight risk” for severe weather on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Highs will otherwise be in the low 80s, with southerly winds at times gusting to about 25 mph.

Wednesday

A weak front will approach our region on Wednesday and may produce some additional shower and thunderstorm chances, although overall I’d put the percentage of precipitation at about 30 percent. This will be a partly sunny day, and pretty hot with highs likely reaching the upper 80s. The front should arrive later in the day or evening, cooling things down overnight, perhaps to around 60 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

Thursday should be partly sunny and pleasant, with a touch of drier and highs in the low 80s. Lows Thursday night will drop into the 60s, but humidity levels will already be rebounding by Friday, with another day in the 80s.

Saturday and Sunday

It looks like we’ll see a warm and partly to mostly sunny weekend. For now I’d peg highs in the mid- to possibly upper-80s on both Saturday and Sunday, with rain chances near zero, and noticeable humidity. My only concern is the potential for some decent southerly wind gusts, particularly on Easter Sunday. For now I’m thinking they won’t be too bad, but it’s something to watch for.

Next week

We’re still seven or eight days away, but right now the global forecast models indicate that a fairly strong, late-season cold front may push into the region next Monday or Tuesday, on April 18 or 19. It’s far enough out that we can’t be fully confident in this, but if it happens the region could see lows in the 50s, or possibly even 40s, for a couple of nights. This would be a rather nice cooldown for late April, so we’ll keep an eye on it for you. Have a great week, everyone.

So, last Friday I noted how Houston’s pollen season had probably been in the process of peaking, slightly later than usual. The last two days laughed in the face of that comment and produced the highest tree pollen values I can find in the City of Houston’s pollen count archives (2013-2022), with values over 10,000 Wednesday and over 12,000 yesterday. Going back to 2013, there is not a remotely comparable day in Houston in terms of tree pollen, specifically oak pollen. The next closest value I can find is 6,440 on March 21, 2019. Keep in mind that pollen counts are not conducted on weekends and holidays, so there is missing data, but the odds of all the maximum days not showing up over 9 years of data is quite low.

So then, what is it? Why is this year so much worse than any recent year? There are two theories I have, neither of which I can definitively back up. The first is the drought over Texas. Since February 1st, we’ve had 3 days of rainfall over a quarter inch at Hobby Airport. Since 2000, we’ve averaged six of them. More on drought in a second, but in general rain does help wash some of this pollen away. The dryness, combined with the breezy conditions we’ve had, is just a brutal recipe right now. I’m also guessing that a lot of pollen from central Texas has found its way to Houston with those gusty winds too, as drought is much worse there.

My second theory is that the latest freeze in Houston since 1999 may also be playing a role here. We had a mid-March pair of freezing nights, and I’m wondering if that may have delayed the onset of the excessive pollen, meaning the oak pollen season is delayed. Normally we would be declining by now, but we may be at peak instead.

So my theory is that the dry and windy spring are making the season more extreme, and the later than usual freeze has made it peak later. I may be wrong here, and I would love to be corrected by a tree or pollen expert if so. Hopefully by this time next week, we’re discussing more manageable pollen levels.

Dry, dry, dry

Speaking of drought, the new drought monitor map came out yesterday, which shows that drought coverage in the Houston area inched up just a bit, primarily in Galveston, Chambers, and Brazoria Counties. Texas as a whole did just a bit better week over week.

Rainfall over the next two weeks looks to be near average in the Houston area and below average in the rest of Texas. Drought should hold or worsen statewide.

Red flag warnings are posted for today across all of southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. A red flag warning means that there is very high fire danger due to wind and low humidity levels. Dry brush and grass certainly is not helping.

Basically, use common sense today. Outdoor burning is discouraged. Don’t park on dry grass. Don’t discard cigarette butts out the car window. And if you see any sort of grass fire, report it right away before it can cause bigger problems. As of Thursday evening there were 48 active wildfires across Texas, according to the Texas Wildfire Incident Response System.

Weekend forecast

So that was a lengthy intro to today’s post! Why? There’s not much happening outside of that. Look for a sunny Friday, Saturday, and probably Sunday too. Winds will be gusty today with highs well into the 70s. Tomorrow should see lighter winds with morning lows in the 50s and daytime highs in the lower 80s. Sunday will see a shift to onshore, southerly winds and they could be strong at times, gusting up over 25 mph. Highs will be in the low 80s after morning lows in the low 60s. Humidity will start to become noticeable by later Sunday.

Next week

That onshore flow and building humidity will lead to more clouds than sun and perhaps a shower on Monday. We should still manage the low-80s, but morning lows will struggle to get below 70 degrees. Winds will be gusty again Monday also. Tuesday and Wednesday should see a chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with continued breezy conditions and warm, humid temperatures. We may or may not get a cold front through here later Wednesday or early Thursday, as modeling has been bouncing all over the place on that. If that happens, look for cooler, drier air for the end of next week. We’ll update you with the latest on Monday.

Houston is in the midst of what will probably be its last sustained stretch of “chilly” weather this spring, with two more nights dropping into the upper 40s or lower 50s, before a warmup on Saturday. Also, pollen remains a distinct issue. Likely in response to fairly strong winds, Wednesday’s count was the highest of the season so far, particularly for oak trees. We’re nearing the end of tree pollen season, but it certainly is going out with a bang, and there will be more in the air today with gusty winds continuing.

Thursday

Temperatures are generally in the 50s this morning, and with sunny skies we’ll see highs climb into the mid-70s this afternoon. Winds will be noticeable again this afternoon, gusting to 25 mph, and leading to “red flag” conditions across the area, which occur when there is dry air and high winds. Please avoid fire-related activities today, until about 7 pm tonight. Winds will slacken after sunset, and overnight lows should be a few degrees cooler than Wednesday night. This probably will be our coldest night until at least October.

Friday

This will be a day a lot like Thursday, with ample sunshine, highs in the 70s, and a persistent northerly wind. Clear skies and dying winds should help Friday night’s lows once again fall to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday

Winds will turn easterly on Saturday, at 10 to 15 mph, and this will help highs nudge into the lower 80s. Skies should still be sunny, however, and the air will remain fairly dry. Lows Saturday night will only drop into the low 60s for most areas.

Sunday

As moisture levels continue to rise, we should see the development of some clouds on Sunday, with highs probably slotting into the low 80s. Overnight temperatures may not drop below 70 degrees in the city on Sunday night.

Next week

The forecast for next week remains somewhat muddled. What I think we can count on is fair amount of clouds, and highs in the 80s, with a decent amount of humidity. There will be some rain chances by Monday and Tuesday, but right now there’s no definitive spark for storms or widespread showers, although that could change. Some kind of front is likely to move through later in the week, but there’s no certainty on how much oomph it will bring in terms of dry air and cooling. So if you like your nights chilly, enjoy the next two.