First off, travel is becoming very treacherous in parts of western Harris, northern Fort Bend, Austin, and Waller Counties. According to the Drive Texas map at 8:30 PM, there are icy patches in many spots west of Houston. A 10-vehicle crash was just reported on the Westpark Tollway in Clodine.

If you can avoid travel tonight, it’s best to do so, especially west of Houston. If you cannot, please use extreme caution, especially on bridges and overpasses. Based on reports to our west, once temperatures hit 29 to 30 degrees, that’s generally when ice issues seem to begin. Most of the close-in Houston area is 30 to 32 right now, but it drops to 29 and 30 north and west of there. I would expect to see some major freeway flyovers on the west side of the city close soon, if they have not already. South and east of Houston, temperatures are still 33 to 34 degrees, so icing isn’t a concern for now.

As far as the good news goes, it would appear that a lot of the precipitation is exiting the area or weakening. Radar as of 8:35 PM shows the heaviest, steadiest precipitation either along the coast or exiting to our east. This should continue to wane over the next few hours.

That said, we will likely see pockets of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle continue a little longer this evening before shutting down overnight. And with temperatures not warming up until late morning or early afternoon tomorrow, what’s frozen out there will likely stay in place until at least that time. Coastal areas may see a little light freezing rain or drizzle overnight, but it would likely only amount to a few isolated slick spots. Still, exercise caution there as well tomorrow morning and be aware of isolated patches of black ice over the entire area.

Nighttime temperatures won’t stray a ton from where they are right now, so look for lows in the mid to upper 20s north and west and near freezing south and east.

By no means will this be a memorable freeze for the Houston area, but you should still make sure any sensitive plants are protected the next few nights and have any exterior pipes wrapped and irrigation systems off.

The most important news of all? ERCOT’s situation is healthy right now, and there are no conservation notices posted. All available evidence and data implies that we should be able to manage fine through tomorrow morning.

We may see some sunshine tomorrow afternoon, but temperatures will likely struggle into the upper 30s. A slow warmup is expected this weekend. I’ll have more on that for you in the morning. For now, stay safe and stay warm!

It’s cold, wet, and windy outside today, and conditions aren’t going to improve as skies darken tonight. So let’s jump into the forecast for our region.

As of 3 pm CT, temperatures in the metro area have remained above freezing in Harris and surrounding counties. But they are falling, and for places like Katy and The Woodlands the mercury could reach freezing by around sunset. As roads will remain above freezing for a little while, even if these areas start to see some freezing rain, I think conditions should be generally fine for the evening commute as long as you’re not driving further north than Conroe, northwest of Hockley, or west of Katy. Beyond those locations there may start to be some ice accumulations. You can keep up with highway conditions at DriveTexas.

As for tonight, a light band of precipitation should move through the region from northwest of Houston to the coast between sunset and midnight. This may turn over to freezing rain at some locations where temperatures reach freezing. My sense right now is that the precipitation will be light enough, and the roads warm enough, that the primary concern will be patchy ice on bridges, ramps, and elevated roadways. We should have a much better sense of this threat later this evening, and Matt will have an update by or before 9 pm. The good news is that, after this point, the precipitation is probably over for areas inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. So by late this evening we should have a sense of whether ice is going to pose problems for that portion of the Houston metro area tonight and into Friday morning.

Coastal areas

That leaves us with coastal areas. Temperatures should be warmer during the initial rain band, moving through before midnight. So we don’t think there’s much potential for icing then. However forecast models are showing the potential for the redevelopment of some light precipitation by around sunrise on Friday morning in the coastal tier of counties—Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers. Frankly I don’t have great confidence in whether these showers will develop onshore or offshore; nor if they are over land whether the atmosphere will be cold enough to produce freezing rain. For now, I would say the chance of roadway impacts is considerably less than 50 percent on Friday morning, and probably less than 10 percent, but as of now it is not zero. Hopefully we’ll get a little better handle on this by the time Matt posts later this evening.

As for temperatures, they still look cold but manageable tonight, with lows likely dropping to around 25 degrees west and north of metro Houston, into the upper 20s to 30 degrees in the city, and to around freezing right along the coast. The state’s electricity grid seems to be holding up fairly well, too, but the acid test will come overnight and into Friday morning.

More later this evening.

Good morning. The cold front has pushed off the coast, and temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to low 40s for most of the region. Our primary concern remains the potential for rainfall to turn into wintry precipitation this evening, and during the overnight hours. Secondarily, we are worried about cold temperatures on Thursday night falling below freezing, with wind chills in the low teens. Please protect your pets, and check on neighbors.

Thursday

Today will be cold, wet, and windy, with light to moderate precipitation winding down through the morning hours. Expect high temperatures to remain at about 40 degrees or slightly higher this afternoon, with northerly winds gusting to 25 or 30 mph. Rain remains possible this afternoon, although showers should be very light. There are two main forecast questions that we’re struggling with, and they’re both important to determine impacts from later today into Friday morning. First of all, how quickly will a freezing line advance from northwest of the Houston metro area down toward the coast? And secondarily, when will the precipitation end altogether?

Most likely, the freezing line will reach western parts of the metro area, including Katy; and northern parts, including The Woodlands; sometime this afternoon or shortly after sunset. This means that travel through Houston should be fine today and likely through the evening commute unless you’re going north of Conroe or to places northwest, beyond Hempstead. For more inland parts of the state, including Austin and Dallas, there are fairly serious icing problems today. You can check highway ice conditions at the Texas Department of Transportation’s Drive Texas website.

As the freezing line moves in, it looks as though very light precipitation may still be falling this afternoon, evening, and overnight. Our primary concern is that this will leave a thin glaze of ice on elevated roads and bridges into Friday morning. Within the Houston metro area, my sense right now is that essential travel will still be possible if you go slow and use caution. However, it does not take too much freezing rain to make a mess of things. The latest models have trended a bit drier in terms of overnight precipitation, which gives me some hope that ice accumulation is not going to be a significant problem in Harris County and most of the immediate area surrounding Houston. But again we’re walking a pretty fine line here. Matt and I will update the site a couple of more times today to bring you the latest data we have on this.

It looks like overnight temperatures will drop into the mid- to upper-20s for much of the Houston area, with the coast remaining near or just above freezing. Combined with winds, this will make for extremely cold conditions out of doors, but we don’t think it will cause widespread issues with pipes. So far the state’s power grid is holding up well, with electricity capacity far exceeding demand. We think that will continue to be the case tonight and into Friday, but can offer no guarantees.

Friday

So what can we expect roadways to look like Friday morning? This will depend on precipitation overnight, and right now our expectation is that there may be a light glaze on elevated roads and bridges. There is a chance for more significant ice accumulations, but as I look at the data right now that seems unlikely. Temperatures should rise above freezing during the mid- to late-morning hours, after which the threat of any ice on the roads will quickly abate. A winter weather advisory from the National Weather Service is in effect through noon Friday. High temperatures on Friday won’t go far—perhaps only to 40 or 42 degrees—but they’ll go far enough. With partly cloudy skies we can expect another cold night, with a light freeze possible in Houston.

Saturday

The first day of the weekend will be sunny and cold, with highs in the upper 40s. Winds should finally die down some, but this in turn will yield ideal conditions for cooling overnight, so a light freeze will again be possible for much of the metro area.

Sunday

Sunny with highs in the mid-50s. Lows Sunday night should finally remain above freezing for all but some areas in Montgomery County and points north.

Next week

For the most part we should see sunny weather next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. Rain chances are low for the most part. So cold, but not extremely cold.

Good afternoon. As we get closer to the arrival of a robust cold front tonight, we’re getting better data about its impacts. It now seems possible that light precipitation on Thursday or Thursday evening could transition to freezing rain in parts of the metro area as temperatures fall to freezing. We still believe this will most likely have relatively minor impacts on the region, but cannot say that with full confidence right now.

The front will arrive in western and northwestern parts of the metro area this evening, including locations such as Katy and Tomball, between 9 and 11 pm. The front will reach downtown around midnight, and the coast around 2 to 4 am. The most noticeable changes with the front will be a wind shift and rapidly dropping temperatures. While intermittent, moderate rain showers will be possible after the front, the heaviest rains should end by Thursday morning-ish.

What we’ll be watching for on Thursday is the progression of a freezing line from northwest to southeast; from College Station through Houston, and potentially all the way to the coast. The latest modeling suggests this freezing line will reach College Station by mid- to late-morning on Thursday, and areas such as Katy and The Woodlands during the afternoon or early evening hours. At this point, while the heaviest rain showers will have ended, a light band of precipitation is expected to sag through our region Thursday evening and overnight. As this rain moves through it may transition to freezing rain on Thursday night all the way down to the Highway 59/Interstate 69 corridor, if not a little further.

What does all this mean? Travel in the College Station and Huntsville region could become hazardous later on Thursday morning, with some minor ice accumulations on roadways. In the metro area of Houston, travel during the daytime and early evening should be fine. But some slight ice accumulations are possible later Thursday evening and during the overnight hours. Because roads will still carry some latent heat, the biggest threat for any ice accumulations in Houston will be on elevated bridges and overpasses. Even this ice threat should dissipate as local temperatures rise above freezing by around 9 am on Friday morning.

It still looks like air temperatures will not fall all that far below freezing in the Houston area on Thursday night. Please understand that this is not going to come close to the deep freeze Houston experienced in February 2021, so please do not be overly concerned about that. There is also some reason to believe that the state’s power grid will be able to withstand this freeze, but obviously time will tell.

As this is a fairly dynamic event, things may change, and when they do we’ll report what we know, when we know it.

A message from Reliant

With the winter weather expected this week, Reliant wants to help make sure Texans are prepared. We’re glad to be a longtime supporter of Space City Weather and its mission to keep us informed in advance of weather events headed our way.

Below are tips that can make a big impact when temperatures dip below freezing:

• Charge your devices. Make sure your cell phone, medical equipment, tablets and laptop are fully charged ahead of time.
• Have a backup. Additional power sources can keep your home powered in case of an outage.  Keep in mind winter weather can result in local outages caused by things like ice on wires or fallen tree limbs. These local outages are not related to the amount of available electricity generated and put on the grid. Texans should contact their transmission and distribution utility in the event they experience a localized outage.
• Download the Reliant Winter Prep checklist. Learn more ways to get your home and vehicle ready for dropping temperatures.

Reliant provides 24/7 support to customers via phone and online chat.