Good morning. Depending on where you live this morning, it’s either quite stormy, raining gently, flash flooding, or doing not much at all. Most areas should see at least some rain this morning before all is said and done. Additional rain chances will continue through Sunday before a cool front ends this active pattern for us.

Today

The eastern portion of Harris County has seen the bulk of the heaviest rain this morning, with areas north of Channelview through Crosby seeing 3 to 6 inches of rain so far, prompting a Flash Flood Warning through 9 AM for that area.

Over 2 inches of that 5.5″ near Crosby has fallen between 5:30 and 6:30 AM. At one point they had about 3 inches in an hour there. That will do it. Heavy rain continues in that Flash Flood warned area, but hopefully the pace slows over the next hour or so.

Zooming out, heavy rain is also lifting out of Spring Branch and impacting the northwest Beltway as of 6:35 this morning. Additional heavy rain was falling in the Katy and Fulshear areas and to the north in Hempstead and across Waller County. All of this is generally lifting north while redeveloping and easing to the east.

Expect periods of rain, heavy at times through the morning. Localized flash flooding like we see in eastern Harris County this morning can’t be entirely ruled out, so just use caution if you will be out and about through the morning. Rain probably should taper to scattered showers this afternoon. Temps will be held down due to the clouds and rain today, probably no better than the low-80s.

Saturday

Another round of showers and storms scattered over a fairly wide area seems likely tomorrow. If you are trying to make plans for outdoor events, it’s a bit tricky. The guidance I want to give you versus the guidance I can reasonably give you with the model data available are two very different things! Right now, it won’t be a washout it seems. So that’s good. As far as timing, my best guess is that we’ll see showers and storms developing closer to the coast in the morning, then spreading inland through the late morning and early afternoon, somewhat like what we experienced on Thursday. Not everyone sees rain, but those that do could see some fairly heavy rain for a short time. That said, this is very much subject to change, so no matter where or when your plans are tomorrow, at least have a backup option in mind if you get chased indoors by rain for an hour or two. Highs will be in the 80s after morning lows in the 70s.

Sunday into Monday

Alright, the end of this active pattern looks to begin on Sunday. There should still be showers and storms around on Sunday, driven in part by the front which will be dropping southeast through the day. Ahead of the front will see the best chance of rain, and this should include the Houston area through the coast. I don’t think the coverage on Sunday will be quite as significant as we see today and will see tomorrow, but as on those days, any rain could be locally heavy. Look for 80s, possibly mid to upper-80s on Sunday.

As far as the front goes, look for it to slog through the area. It should arrive in Houston on Sunday evening, then only slowly advance to the coast, hopefully clearing it by Monday morning. And I’m intentionally calling this a “cool” front because behind it, while we will have noticeably lower humidity, the temperatures won’t be much more than slightly cooler.

Tuesday and beyond

In fact, Tuesday morning should see pleasant lows in the 60s. Daytime highs, however, will be in the mid-80s at least. The humidity will be much lower though.

This relatively nicer weather should continue most of the week, with sun-filled skies, warm days, and pleasant evenings. The overall pattern across the U.S. is one that favors very warm weather in the northern part of the country, while we see temperatures maybe only a couple degrees above average.

This pattern is important for us here in Houston because it should limit the chances of any very strong cold fronts into Texas. In fact, when I look at most model data after next week, I see minimal chance for any sort of meaningful fronts through mid-month. That could change, obviously but sitting here today, I’m not optimistic we are going to see any legitimately cool weather here anytime soon.

Tropics

Hurricane Sam continues to rage in the open Atlantic, back up to a strong category 4 storm this morning, with winds of 150 mph. Sam has been really incredible to watch meteorologically, and thankfully avoiding all land masses, the best kind of hurricane.

Sam is the strongest storm this far east in the Atlantic this late in the season, according to Dr. Philip Klotzbach at Colorado State University. Behind Sam is Victor, also expected to head safely out to sea.

Good morning. Houston faces a couple of more wet days, with the potential for heavy rainfall, before drier and slightly cooler weather arrives early next week.

Thursday

After a quiet night, in terms of rainfall, we’ll see activity increase this morning along the coast and migrate inland during the day. These storms should move along at a decent clip, so we don’t expect major impacts, but some locations could pick up a quick half inch of rainfall. Rain chances are probably greater than 50 percent south of Interstate 10, and less than that for inland areas. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures likely will remain confined to the mid-80s for much of the area. Rain chances should slacken late this afternoon, or during the evening.

Friday

This should be a similar day, as our atmosphere remains moist and open to upper-level disturbances moving through. Rain chances are probably 60 to 70 percent during the daytime, with briefly heavy rain and thunderstorms possible. While there is the potential for heavy rainfall on Friday, conditions are more favorable for this to happen closer to Austin than Houston. Storms should weaken during the late afternoon hours, and likely wind down after sunset. Highs will again be in the mid-80s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend is far enough out that I don’t feel too confident in the specifics, but with elevated moisture levels it does seem possible that we could continue to see the potential for widespread showers, and some heavy rainfall on Saturday—maybe during the morning hours? The bottom line, I think, is that any outdoor plans on Saturday should come with an asterisk. Highs will probably reach the mid-80s with more cloudy skies.

Sunday

The pattern begins to change on Sunday, with atmospheric moisture levels dropping in advance of a frontal passage. As a result, skies should turn partly sunny on Sunday, with rain chances falling during the day. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-80s. The front itself, which is fairly weak, should push into Houston during the late evening hours or so, and move off the coast over night or early on Monday.

Next week

Next week should be sunny, in the wake of the front, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. The cooldown won’t be too dramatic, but rain will go away for several days, and the air will be noticeably drier. I’ll take it.

A fairly robust line of thunderstorms rumbled through Houston during the wee hours this morning. Several locations recorded wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, but power outages were fairly scattered with only about 20,000 customers affected in the metro area as of sunrise.

The storms generally brought 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, and this was manageable by the area’s flood system. Transtar is reporting no major flood-related issues on area roadways. We’ll see continued rain chances into the weekend, but this morning’s action was probably the most significant we’re going to see for awhile.

Wednesday

The squall line with the strongest storms has moved well east of the Houston region, but light showers will likely continue into mid-morning for much of the area. By or before noon, even this light rain should end and we should start to see some partly sunny skies. As a result, high temperatures should push into the upper 80s away from the coast. A few scattered showers will be possible later this evening or during the overnight hours, but for the most part things should be a lot quieter than Tuesday night. Lows will be sticky, likely only falling into the mid-70s.

Thursday

This should be another day with a mix of clouds and sunshine, and temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Rain chances are probably about 50 percent, but we shouldn’t see any kind of organized storms like we saw Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Friday and Saturday

Healthy rain chances will continue on Friday and Saturday, with both days likely seeing partly to mostly cloudy skies. It’s certainly not going to be wall-to-wall rain, but there should be enough activity that you’ll want to have a contingency plan for any outdoor activities. Highs both days will probably be in the mid-80s. I would guess that most areas see an additional 1 inch of rainfall, or less, from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday.

Sunday and beyond

Will it or won’t it? That’s the question with a cold front approaching our region by Sunday, and possibly pushing through Houston and off the coast. I think there will be enough dry air moving into our region that Sunday should be partly sunny, with diminished rain chances. Temperatures should therefore be a bit cooler to start next week, with models now indicating that a second push of colder air could arrive by mid-week. By Wednesday or Thursday, then, it probably will start to feel more fall-like.

Beginning this morning, Houston has entered a distinctly wetter pattern that should bring 2 to 4 inches of rainfall to much of the region, with higher isolated totals. While area soils are plenty dry and able to handle such rain, the potential for briefly heavy rainfall could lead to a few flooded streets in low-lying areas at some point this week. The wet period may continue into Saturday morning.

Tuesday

So what has changed? After high pressure moved away from the region, much richer moisture has pushed into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, the atmosphere is becoming more unstable as small disturbances begin to move overhead, promoting rising air. As a result of all this we’re going to see fairly widespread showers today across much of the region. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures should reach the mid- to upper-80s to go along with light, southeasterly winds. Rain chances become lower by around sunset, but may begin to increase again during the wee hours of Wednesday.

Wednesday

This will be another day with fairly widespread rain showers—about a 60 percent chance—and mostly cloudy skies. Look for highs in the mid-80s. The evening should again provide a bit of a reprieve from shower activity.

Thursday and Friday

At this point it looks like rain chances will peak on Thursday and Friday, with 70 or 80 percent of the area seeing rainfall each day. Highs, accordingly, will be in the mid-80s without much of a cooldown over night.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Beginning on Saturday skies may turn a little more sunny, but we’ll still have a chance for at least some scattered showers. Sunday should be at least partly sunny as well, with highs nudging back into the upper 80s. After that time we’ll be watching to see if a cold front moving down through Texas makes it all the way through Houston and off the coast early next week . Either way, right now, the front looks to be a fairly weak one, with only moderate effects on temperatures and dewpoints. Your sweaters are safe in their closets, for now.