Apologies for the late post this morning, but both Matt and I are balancing work, travel, and family schedules for the next few days so posts may be a bit off schedule through next Wednesday. Fortunately, the weather does not look too crazy as we continue with this wetter-and-cooler-than-normal pattern for July.

Friday

If you’ve appreciated Houston’s weather over the last several days you’re in luck, as Friday is likely to see similar conditions. The combination of daytime heating and the sea breeze should again spark the development of showers and thunderstorms later this morning, and these will be capable of producing briefly heavy rains and strong wind gusts. Perhaps 50 to 60 percent of the Houston region will see rain today to go along with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. Rain chances will slacken this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Saturday

I’m cautiously optimistic about the forecast for the weekend. It looks like atmospheric moisture levels will fall back a little, and this should help to limit both the coverage of showers on Saturday and their intensity. I’d say you probably have about a one-in-three chance of seeing at least some light showers on Saturday, and with partly sunny skies highs will likely get into the low 90s.

Sunday

Sunday should bring more of the same weather, with highs not over-bearing for mid-July and a decent chance of a passing shower. At this time we don’t see much evidence for organized, significant rainfall this weekend. Winds will be light all weekend, out of the east or southeast. Humidity will, of course, be sky high.

Next week

Monday will likely see persistence weather, meaning more scattered rain chances before the upper-level pattern becomes more favorable for rainfall later next week. Tuesday and Wednesday look fairly wet, and at this point I’d say much of the area could pick up an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain during the middle of next week. But that’s just a guess at this point.

By Thursday it really does look like high pressure will start to build over the area, and we could begin an extended period of hotter days in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies. Some of you will welcome that, and others will dread it. As for Space City Weather’s opinion, I have to say, we’re just here for the fall cold fronts.

Have a great weekend, everyone.

Good morning. If you’ve come to read this in hopes of learning when Houston’s wet pattern will break, I’m afraid we’re going to disappoint you. The short answer is: Not any time soon. Houston is going to see daily rain chances through at least the middle of next week as our region remains open to Gulf moisture and rising air.

Thursday and Friday

Our best-guess forecast for the next two days is that conditions will be a lot like we experienced on Tuesday and Wednesday. Effectively, this means we’re likely to see showers and thunderstorms develop closer to the coast during the late morning hours and then slowly migrate inland during the afternoon hours. These storms are driven as the sea breeze moves inland from the coast, and combines with warmer surface temperatures to lift moisture higher into the atmosphere where it can condense. You can learn more about the sea breeze, and how it affects our weather during the summer, here.

Anyway, these showers will be hit or miss, but some areas may pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain while nearby you just see gray skies and hear thunder. Highs will generally be limited to about 90 degrees with a mix of partly sunny skies. Winds should come out of the south at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday and Sunday

The overall setup will not change this weekend, although it does look as though the moisture available for storms to develop will decrease slightly. This means there will probably be fewer showers and thunderstorms for you to dodge this weekend, but the threat is unfortunately not going to go away during the afternoon hours. Again, this activity should driven by the sea breeze. Highs will otherwise be in the low 90s for much of the area, with mostly sunny skies.

Next week

This pattern should persist into Monday, after which time we may see conditions actually become more favorable for rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the details are fuzzy, we can expect a low-pressure system to push rain chances higher into mid-week, and this should help to keep temperatures on the low side for our region, perhaps around 90 degrees.

Finally, by about Thursday or so, the models generally agree that our region should begin to see fewer showers and thunderstorms. But that is far enough into the forecast such that I don’t have too much confidence in such a prediction yet.

Good morning. Not going to lie—the intensity of some of Tuesday afternoon’s storms across north and west Houston surprised me. There were a few downbursts that briefly brought winds as high as 60 mph to areas such as Jersey Village, Cypress, Copperfield, and elsewhere. Rainfall was quite intense, as well. The overall pattern is similar for today, so we could see more of these localized, intense storms in parts of the region.

Wednesday

Given the atmospheric setup, we should again see scattered showers near the coast this morning, with coverage filling by the middle of the day and during the afternoon hours. High resolution models suggest that strong storms could again form along the Interstate 10 corridor during this time period, and slowly lift north. So while I’m not saying you will see a repeat of Tuesday’s intense storms, it is possible. Highs will otherwise reach the low 90s, with partly sunny skies. Shower activity will wane with the loss of daytime heating.

Thursday and Friday

The overall pattern remains similar. Because Houston will be far enough removed from the influence of high pressure, the combination of warm summertime temperatures and ample Gulf of Mexico moisture will do their thing, and each of these days will bring rain to about 50 percent of the Houston area. Highs should, for the most part, be in the low 90s with partly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

So will this wet and potentially stormy pattern extend into the weekend? The short answer is yes, although for now I still think both days will have lower rain chances, in the 30 percent range, to go along with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 90s. But how high is my confidence in this forecast? It’s not sky high, that’s for sure.

Next week

Some models are suggesting an upper-level low pressure system will move toward Texas early next week, and this would act to increase rain chances beginning Monday or Tuesday. I don’t think we’re looking at any kind of a flood situation, to be sure, but it does seem like our overall wet and cooler pattern will extend at least into the middle of next week.

It’s been an interesting summer so far, as we’ve seen what happens when high pressure doesn’t build directly over our region. There’s still time for this, of course, as we could see a “ridge of doom” in August or even September. And I’m not complaining. The cooler summer has been nice, and I can count the number of times I’ve watered my lawn in 2021 on my Unicorn horns. Which is zero. Because I don’t have a unicorn horn growing out of my forehead.