Good morning. Houston experienced its first 90-degree day of the year on Tuesday. But while it was undoubtedly hot outside, dewpoints were reasonably low—in the mid-60s—so for Houston it was a somewhat dry heat. A front moving through the region today will sweep the heat and moisture away for a bit. But not forever, of course, as we’re now mere weeks away from the onset of summer-like conditions. In today’s post I’ll also take an early look at an Easter forecast.

Wednesday

Temperatures are generally in the low 70s this morning, with some patchy fog. This will lift as temperatures rise. There should be no rain with the front, but the wind shift should be noticeable along with a rapid influx of drier air. The front will will likely reach areas such as Katy and The Woodlands by around 11 am, central Houston around noon, and push off the coast by early afternoon. In the wake of the front, this afternoon, expect temperatures to settle at about 80 degrees with winds gusting to 25 or possibly even 30 mph in some locations. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of sunny days, with highs in the upper 70s, and lows of about 50 degrees. The air will also be quite dry, with dewpoints dropping to about 30 degrees. This is probably the driest air we will see until at least October, if I had to guess. Both Thursday and Friday will be breezy, with gusts out of the north up to 25 mph, to support this influx of drier air.

Saturday, Sunday, and early next week

Saturday looks pretty great. Winds will shift to come from the southeast, but they should drop back some to 10 or 15 mph. Highs will reach about 80 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies. As this onshore flow progresses, winds will probably pick up, perhaps gusting to 25 or even higher from the south by Sunday. As a result, Sunday looks to be more humid, with highs around 80 degrees, and the development of some clouds due to increasing moisture levels. Still I don’t anticipate any rainfall.

With more moisture in the atmosphere, we may start to see some scattered showers on Monday or Tuesday of next week. Whether it actually rains, and how much, will depend on the evolution of atmospheric disturbances. We shall see. Highs for most of next week should slot somewhere in the 80s, with the possibility of a weak front arriving on Wednesday to cool things down a little bit.

Easter Sunday

So what does all this mean for April 17, Easter Sunday? Right now there’s no clear signal, but the majority of the model guidance suggests the region will be warming up late next week. My best guess is a high somewhere between 80 and 85 degrees, with partly sunny skies. It’s far too early to say anything definitive about rainfall, but at least there’s no indication right now of particularly heavy rainfall or something crazy like that.

Good morning. Houston is “enjoying” its warmest morning so far of 2022, with lows only falling into the low 70s for much of the region. We’ll have one more warm day before a front arrives on Wednesday to set the stage for a much more seasonal rest of the week, and weekend.

Tuesday

There is some patchy fog across the metro area this morning, but it should lift by mid-morning as temperatures warm. How much sunshine breaks through this afternoon, and how quickly it does, will determine how high our temperatures go. But I feel pretty confident that at least some parts of the metro area will reach 90 degrees for the first time this year, especially areas west of Interstate 45. Winds will generally be light, out of the southwest. Some fog will be possible tonight as temperatures drop to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

If you’re not quite ready for the heat, relief arrives on Wednesday in the form of a front that likely will reach areas north and west of Houston by late morning, the city itself by around noon, and clear the coast during the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will quickly bring drier and cooler air into the region, with afternoon temperatures around 80 degrees, and overnight lows in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week should bring a pair of sunny days, with highs somewhere in the upper 70s, and lows dropping to around 50 degrees in Houston, with 40s likely for areas further inland. Both of these days will be fairly breezy, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph, and gusts up to 25 mph or so. Even so, these winds mean drier air, with dewpoints dropping to around 30 degrees. That won’t happen too many more times this spring, y’all. If at all.

Saturday and Sunday

After a cold start on Saturday morning, the onshore flow returns this weekend. Both days should see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low 80s. The southerly flow will be a bit stronger on Sunday, so we’ll likely see winds become a bit more gusty. Lows by Sunday night will only drop into the upper 60s, probably.

Next week

Most of next week looks to be in the 80s, with warmish nights. Some rain chances return by the early part of next week, but they’re nothing to write home about. Another (weak?) front may arrive by Wednesday or Thursday to bring some drier air back into the region. We’ll see.

Good morning. The big (bad?) news this week is that we’ll probably see our warmest weather of 2022, with highs of 90 degrees possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. But fret not, a nice front arrives on Wednesday to bring drier air and seasonable weather into the region through at least part of the weekend.

Monday

Increasing atmospheric moisture levels will combine with and upper-level disturbance to bring a chance of showers into the region, probably 20 percent today, and 50 percent tonight. While we cannot entirely rule out a thunderstorm or two, by far the better chance for this lies well north of the Houston region, including Montgomery County. (Dallas and Fort Worth may well be affected, so bear that in mind if you’re traveling north). For those who do see a stray shower today or tonight, accumulations will probably be on the order of a tenth or two of an inch. Highs will reach the upper 70s beneath cloudy skies, with lows only dropping to 70. Winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 mph, with slightly higher gusts.

Tuesday

Some light rain is possible Tuesday morning before skies clear out. This sunshine should allow temperatures to really pop, likely reaching the upper 80s to potentially 90 degrees. Overnight lows will drop to the upper 60s. Look for warm south or southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph, picking up a little bit more on Tuesday night.

Wednesday

Highs on Wednesday will depend on the timing of the front, which bring cooler and drier air. (It looks like there will be no rain with the front’s passage). For now I’ll peg the front’s push into central Houston around noon, which should help limit highs, especially for areas inland of Highway 59-Interstate 69. However, where the front doesn’t make it by early afternoon, look for highs again in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. The front will shift winds to come from the northwest, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Lows Wednesday night should drop into the 50s.

Thursday and Friday

Both Thursday and Friday look fairly breezy, with highs in the 70s to go along with the influx of drier air from the north. Nighttime temperatures should drop to around 50 degrees both nights, with upper 40s possible for inland areas. These days will be quite sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point, and things could change, but at this point Saturday looks to have exceptional weather. We’re talking highs in the range of upper 70s to low 80s, with lots of sunshine and winds dropping off some. The air will still be dry. As the onshore flow gets going, Sunday will probably see the development of more clouds, with highs around 80 degrees, and increasing humidity levels. Next week probably will see this ongoing trend of warmer, and fairly humid weather.

Good morning! We really hope you enjoyed yesterday’s weather. It was truly sublime, though if you’re a seasonal allergy sufferer like me, it was not quite as nice as it could have been. Yesterday was the highest tree pollen value I’ve seen in Houston this year, and as you’d expect it seems to be following a fairly typical pattern for spring. Below is a chart of total tree pollen in Houston from January 1 through April 30 over the last 5 years, plus 2022 so far. Keep in mind that there is no data for weekends or holidays, and there are currently multiple missing days in March unfortunately.

Where the pattern may be breaking down is on which date the “peak” of tree pollen occurs. I will confirm this once March’s archive is published, but if we go by what data we do have, the peak of tree pollen occurred like this in Houston:

Year	Peak Date of Pollen
2022 (so far)	March 31
2021	March 26
2020	March 6
2019	March 21
2018	March 14
2017	March 14

Assuming yesterday was our peak day for pollen, it came rather late. Data in Houston goes back to 2013, and this year would be the latest peak since at least then. That peak date is contingent on numerous things like rain, temperatures, wind, etc. So each year will be different, obviously, but this year does indeed seem to be peaking late. Based on previous seasons, we likely have about 10 to 14 more days of really high pollen before things begin to fall off steadily. There is hope for us.

Today

On to the weather, and today should be another good one. We will likely see some clouds at times, but for the most part today will be classified as mostly sunny. Look for highs around 80, give or take a few degrees. Winds will be mainly light, but up just a notch over yesterday.

Weekend

Saturday should be a fair day for most folks, with a decent amount of sunshine around. There will likely be some showers with a passing disturbance and approaching weak front, but many or most of you may not see much of anything come from that tomorrow. I’m guessing the clouds and shower chance will be highest in the morning hours, followed by clearing for the afternoon.

Sunday should be just fine with plentiful sunshine with daytime highs in the low-80s and morning lows around 60 or so each day (a few degrees cooler outside the city). Winds will be variable but generally 5 to 15 mph.

Early next week

Monday should begin fine with a mix of clouds and sun. We should be able to make the low-80s after a mild mid-60s start to the day. You will notice a bit more of an onshore breeze Monday, with 15 mph winds, and a bit gustier at times near the coast. Additionally, it looks like we’ll see some showers and thunderstorms develop on Monday afternoon.

The SPC has published their day 4 severe outlook and included the Houston area, primarily north of I-10 as having a chance for severe thunderstorms. We will likely be dealing with some “capping” in the atmosphere, as we normally do down here in spring. This increase in temperatures with altitude normally helps limit our severe weather risk near the Gulf, as opposed to what is normally seen to our north. For now, while severe storms are possible on Monday, we are comfortable saying the highest odds may be north of the Houston metro area. We’ll obviously have an update on this Monday.

Tuesday and beyond

Any storms on Monday will occur well ahead of a cold front. That front won’t actually get here until Wednesday. So we may see lingering showers on Tuesday morning, followed by clearing and warm weather Tuesday, with low to mid-80s. Wednesday could be quite warm with slightly less humidity and sunshine. Wednesday’s high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper-80s right now.

For those that want more pleasant weather, it should arrive for a couple days behind Wednesday’s front. We will see lower humidity and sunshine, along with slightly cooler temperatures. More on that next week!