Good morning! As we get closer to the weekend our overall pattern remains more or less the same, with three more partly to mostly cloudy warm days, a transition day on Sunday, and somewhat cooler weather next week. Overall the forecast is pretty boring, and after last year’s hurricane season and the recent winter storm, there’s nothing wrong with that.

On an unrelated note, I’ll be speaking during a couple of free, online events today you may find of interest. I’ll be speaking virtually about LIFTOFF at a Houston Writer’s event at 1pm CT, and interviewed about the book for the San Francisco-based Commonwealth Club at 5pm CT. The YouTube link for the Commonwealth event will go live at that time.

Thursday

Southerly winds will continue to blow, bringing more warm and humid air into the region. As a result, we expect continued, mostly cloudy skies today with high temperatures reaching around 80 degrees. Winds will again be noticeable out of the south, blowing as high as about 20 mph. Like Wednesday night, lows will only drop into the upper 60s for most.

Friday and Saturday

We’ll see more of the same on Friday and Saturday, although winds may slacken just a bit, and there may be a few more breaks in the clouds as sunshine peeks through. Look for highs to again hit about 80 degrees, with warm nights and plenty of humidity to spare. Rain chances will be about 10 percent both days.

Sunday

The pattern changes as a cold front pushes toward the region, and this will lead to better rain chances from the period of Saturday night into Sunday night. Most of these showers will be light, with accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5 inches for most, and skies should otherwise be cloudy. Highs will reach the mid-70s or so, and right now the front looks to move into the city during the afternoon or evening hours. This will set the stage for a cooler night, likely in the 50s.

Next week

The front will cool things off for the region on Monday, but by Tuesday the pattern will again warm again. The forecast models now seem increasingly confident in a second front pushing through on Wednesday, which should drive highs into the 60s for the second half of next week, with lows in the 40s and 50s. Wednesday’s front should bring another splash of rain into the forecast, but nothing that looks too serious at this time.

After several days of partly to mostly sunny skies, clouds are back on the menu for Houston, along with increasing levels of humidity. Temperatures across the region are unlikely to fall below the 60s for most areas until Sunday night, by which time a front should drop us back into more seasonable conditions.

Wednesday

A much warmer, southerly flow is in place over the region, and as a result temperatures this morning have only fallen into the low- to mid-60s across the region. In response to fairly tight pressure gradients, we’ll see onshore winds kick up again this afternoon, with gusts reaching about 25 mph out of the southeast. This humid air will allow temperatures to reach into the upper 70s, to 80 degrees, despite cloudy skies. Overnight temperatures won’t fall below the mid- 60s.

Thursday

Our sensible weather won’t change much on Thursday, although slightly increased moisture levels may allow for some very scattered, very light rain showers to develop. Highs will again be near 80 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.

Friday and Saturday

The continued flow of warmer air will lead to more days with highs of around 80 degrees on Friday and Saturday, although we may see a little bit more sunshine during the afternoon hours. Nights will remain warm and sticky, with the possibility of fog developing along and near the coast as warmer air moves over cooler shelf waters.

Sunday

At some point on Sunday our next cold front should arrive in Houston. For most of the day, however, we may see gray skies and fairly decent rain chances, with accumulations perhaps on the order of 0.25 to 0.5 inches. There may be a few thunderstorms. Highs likely will be the 70s, with a cooler night as lows drop to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Next week

The first several days of next week look cooler, but the global models seem undecided about whether a second, reinforcing front will make it through by around Wednesday. As a result, we don’t really know whether highs will be in the 60s or 80s for the second half of next week.

Data are in for the country as a whole in February, and it shows the contiguous United States experienced the 19th coldest February on record, which goes back 127 years. Temperatures were 3.2 degrees below the 20th century average, according to NOAA. This was the country’s coldest February since 1989.

Texas experienced its 11th coldest February on record. Notably, Austin set a record with temperatures remaining below freezing for six consecutive days, Waco had a similar record stretch of nine days, and wind chill values below zero were recorded as far south as the Rio Grande River.

Tuesday

Temperatures this morning are generally in the 50s, and will be on the rise today with partly sunny skies and warm southerly winds. Expect gusts up to about 20 mph later this afternoon as highs push into the mid- to upper 70s. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions possible further inland. This warming trend will continue through Saturday, or so.

Wednesday

A continued flow of warmer, southerly air will be the story for Wednesday as well. This will eventually lead to mostly cloudy skies, even as highs push into the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees. Winds will be gusty, perhaps to 25 mph or so, again peaking during the afternoon hours. Rain chances will be low, around 10 percent, but non-zero. Overnight lows won’t fall below the 60s anywhere close to Houston.

Thursday and Friday

The story remains the same toward the end of the work week, with continued breezy weather and warming temperatures. Highs both days will likely reach around 80 degrees with a mix of sunshine and clouds.

Saturday and Sunday

Our confidence in the weekend forecast is increasing. We can now reasonably expect a continuation of this week’s weather through Saturday—so plan for a warm day with a high around 80 degrees, partly sunny skies, and a reasonable amount of humidity.

Timing of the region’s next front now looks likely to occur some time on Sunday, or Sunday night. This means we will probably see mostly cloudy skies for the second half of the weekend, with increasing rain chances during the day. How much rain? At a guess I’d say perhaps one-half inch with the potential for a few thunderstorms, but we’ll have to iron out that part of the forecast in the coming days. Highs Sunday will depend on when the front pushes through, be it daytime or the overnight hours.

The story of next week seems to be that of somewhat cooler weather to start the week, followed by a stronger front around Wednesday or so. Bottom line: We’ll feel should feel more like March, with highs in the 60s and 70s, and lows in the 40s and 50s. Details very much to come.

Good morning! Houston just experienced—in my opinion at least—the nicest weekend of 2021 so far. After all of that sunshine and cool, dry air we’ll see a warming trend and likely reach the low 80s this week before our next front works through the area next weekend. Rain chances will be low until then as well. Looking a bit further ahead, next week does look somewhat cooler.

Monday

Today will be another pleasant spring day, with highs in the low 70s and mostly sunny skies. Winds will begin to be noticeable out of the southeast, at 10 mph or so, and that will start to set the stage for warmer and more humid conditions later in the week. Low temperatures Monday night should be about 10 degrees warmer than Sunday night, but this should still be the coldest night until at least next Sunday.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The story for these two days will be that of building clouds and increasingly brisk southerly winds. We’ll still see some sunshine, as highs get into the mid-70s on Tuesday, but by Wednesday skies should be full-on cloudy. Winds will gust in the 20s on Tuesday, and perhaps in the mid-20s on Wednesday as the southerly flow amps up. Lows will not drop below the mid-60s.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week will bring warmer temperatures still, with highs in the low to possibly mid-80s and mostly cloudy skies. This will probably be the warmest and most humid weather we’ve seen so far in 2021. We can’t entirely rule out some light precipitation, but chances are quite low both days.

Saturday, Sunday, and next week

Our weather for this weekend remains something of a question mark as we’re just not sure about the timing of the region’s next cold front. Some models bring the front through on Saturday, and some on Sunday, so for now I’d split the difference and bet on a Saturday night passage. But being honest, our temperatures, rain chances, and humidity for the coming weekend are all going to depend on the front so overall confidence is fairly low. For now, let’s say cloudy, decent rain chances, and highs around 80 degrees on Saturday; and a bit cooler and sunny on Sunday

The models generally show cooler weather for next week, with highs perhaps dropping back to the 60s, and lows in the 40s and 50s. We’re not looking at anything like a freeze, I’m pretty sure, but that’s not unheard of in Houston, in March.