Good morning. After several partly to mostly sunny days, Houston’s weather will turn cloudy today. And beginning Thursday, we’ll see at least low rain chances daily through the weekend.
Wednesday
Today will be warm, mostly cloudy, and quite breezy. In response to a low pressure system over central Texas, onshore winds will blow at about 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. A wind advisory is in effect for areas just west as southwest of Houston, including Brazoria and Fort Bend counties from 11 am to 7 pm. It will be a rather warm day, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s, and the mercury could go a bit higher still for areas that see snippets of sunshine this afternoon. Rain chances are near zero, with a capping inversion in place, but we can’t entirely preclude a few sprinkles. Lows tonight will not drop below 70 degrees.
Look for strong southerly winds on Wednesday, with higher gusts. (Weather Bell)
Thursday
A cold front will be pushing through Central Texas overnight, and this will send a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms toward the Houston area. This line, which likely will be weakening as it moves into a more stable air mass, should reach College Station by around sunrise, and the Houston area itself during the afternoon hours. As for accumulations, its sort of a crap shoot, but I’d estimate most areas will see one to two tenths of an inch of rain.
It now appears that this line of showers, and an attendant weak front, will move off the coast Thursday evening. Daytime highs will be in the low 80s, with cloudy skies. Overnight lows will probably drop into the upper 60s.
Friday
At this point Friday looks mostly dry, but we can’t entirely rule out at least some scattered showers in the wake of the weak front. Skies will be mostly cloudy with highs likely somewhere in the upper 70s for most areas. Lows Friday night should again drop into the upper 60s, but my confidence in temperatures is not great.
Saturday and Sunday
Both weekend days should see mostly cloudy skies, and highs of around 80 degrees. The bigger question concerns rain chances, as a few disturbances pass across the area. I think both days will have about a 40 percent chance of at least light rain showers. For those participating in the Bike MS Texas on Saturday, that’s the bad news. The good news is that winds will have shifted to come from the south and southeast on Saturday, so there are very good odds that riders will have a tailwind going from Houston to College Station. Overnight lows will probably be in the upper 60s to 70 degrees.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Weather Bell)
By Monday, with sunnier weather on the way, highs should start to push into the mid- to upper-80s. Most of next week looks fairly warm, as one would expect for early May.
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It’s a rather sticky morning across the region. Outside my home, the temperature is 75 degrees, with a dewpoint only slightly lower. Skies are overcast, and we’ll only see a few breaks later in the day. The cloud cover should help to limit high temperatures, keeping them in the low 80s. Winds will blow out of the south at 10 to 15 mph. Tonight will be similarly muggy.
Wednesday
This will be a warm day. Southerly winds will continue to blow on Wednesday, turning a bit gusty, but there should be a few more breaks in the clouds. This sunshine will goose temperatures, and I think parts of the region will likely see highs in the mid- to upper-80s. While we can’t entirely rule out a few showers Wednesday night, the better rain chances will come on Thursday.
High temperature forecast for Wednesday. (Weather Bell)
Thursday
The region’s next front will approach Houston on Thursday. This will bring an increased rain chances, but there’s not a whole lot of consensus in the model forecasts. There are some hints that we may see pockets of heavy rainfall, but most of the systems we’ve seen this spring have significantly underperformed in terms of rainfall. So my expectation is for a few tenths of an inch of rain with this front, but it’s something we’ll need to watch. High temperatures will likely get to about 80 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies to go along with our rainfall. As for the front, it will likely slog toward the coast, pushing offshore overnight.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
I’d love to tell you that we’ve got a great handle on the forecast for this weekend, but that would mean I’d be lying to you. The reality is that some of the guidance, including the European model, have backed off on the amount of dry air coming in with Thursday night’s front. For now, my best guess for Friday through Sunday is highs of around 80 degrees, lows in the 60s, with partly sunny skies and a modicum of drier air. By Monday we’ll probably be on a significant warming trend, likely headed back toward the upper 80s.
About nine weeks have now passed since the brutal winter storm that crippled the state of Texas’ electricity generation system. Since that time, however, Houston has enjoyed mostly spectacular weather. It’s difficult to quantify things, but the large majority of weekends have seen mostly sunny skies, dry air, and mild temperatures. This most recent weekend brought more of the same weather and the (very) early outlook for next weekend is not bad. I hope you’ve enjoyed it, because March and April typically offer some of this region’s nicest weather, and this year both months delivered.
Monday
Temperatures this morning are in the mid-60s, and they will climb into the low 80s this afternoon with partly sunny skies. Winds will blow from the southeast at about 10 mph, with higher gusts, and this will signal the return of the onshore flow. With this influx of more moist air humidity levels will rise, and overnight temperatures will likely not fall below 70 degrees for much of the metro area tonight.
Tuesday
Skies will be mostly cloudy, and this likely will help to limit temperatures in the low 80s. Winds will continue to blow from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph, and this will pump up moisture levels for rain chances later this week, but for now Tuesday should remain free from precipitation. Lows Tuesday night will only drop into the low 70s.
Wednesday should be the warmest day for much of the region. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
Another day with a breezy flow off the Gulf of the Mexico. It’s possible there will be some breaks in the clouds on Wednesday, and if so this will allow temperatures to climb into the mid- to upper-80s. This likely will be the warmest day of the week, and for now at least rain chances should remain about 10 percent or less. Lows will again be warm.
Thursday and Friday
A front will approach the region on Thursday and should cross the area by Thursday evening. This front will bring a healthy chance of showers to the region. Right now accumulations for most areas will probably be in the one-tenth to one-half inch range, with most rain during the daytime on Thursday. Highs on Thursday should be in the low 80s. Some rain chances will linger on Friday, but any accumulations should be very slight. Friday will see partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s.
NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Friday night. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
For now, we think Houston will see a drier pattern this weekend, with at least partly sunny skies. As we enter May, it’s difficult to beat highs in the low 80s with moderate dewpoints. We can’t entirely rule out some rain chances, at least not yet, but overall the weekend forecast looks promising at this point.
The main story in today’s post will be regarding the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms today. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the Houston area in a “Slight” risk (level 2/5) of severe weather today. Areas around Lake Livingston and Crockett are in an “Enhanced” risk (level 3/5) of severe weather.
The National Weather Service in Houston offers this graphic showing the best risk of severe weather north of the Houston area, with hail and damaging winds being the primary concern. (NOAA/NWS Houston)
Let’s walk through what to expect.
When will it rain? We are already seeing a few showers across the area, with some localized downpours east of I-45 and lighter showers or light rain and drizzle elsewhere. Look for the coverage of showers to increase through the morning and continue off and on through at least mid-afternoon. It will not rain all day, and it may not even rain everywhere. But that chance is going to hang with us all day today, so it’s best to have an umbrella at the ready wherever you go. A second round of showers or storms is possible this evening, but confidence in what that exactly looks like is low. Rain chances will drop off and eventually end overnight after a cold front pushes through toward morning.
When is the best chance for severe weather? There will be two chances at severe weather today. The first will be with a warm front lifting north across the area from late morning into early afternoon. That could produce individual thunderstorms capable of producing large hail or an isolated tornado. The relative highest odds of that occurring would be north of I-10 and east of I-45, particularly as you get closer to that “Enhanced risk” area northeast of Houston. The second opportunity will likely come with the “dryline” sweeping east late this afternoon or evening. Severe weather may occur in Central or North Texas as individual cells develop, eventually probably congealing into more a squall line and general strong, damaging wind threat as it sweeps east.
There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding exactly how things will play out today, but if it looks more serious closer to the Houston area we will keep you posted.
Will there be tornadoes? Hail? As is often the case, the odds of any one location seeing significant severe weather today is quite low. But that said, hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat from today’s storms. But, yes, there is at least a chance for an isolated tornado, particularly with the late morning and early afternoon storms that develop mainly north and east of Houston. The best hail odds today will be with the storms developing in Central Texas, especially initially. As those approach the Houston area this evening, I would expect the hail threat to diminish and transition more to a damaging wind one.
When will it end? There will probably be a lull late this evening or early in the overnight. A brief shower or storm can’t be entirely ruled out late tonight or very early Saturday morning as the cold front approaches. But for the most part, the rain chances and severe weather risks will end after this evening.
How much rain should we expect today? It’s likely that rain totals are wildly variable across the region today. It’s possible some places see merely a few hundredths or a couple tenths of an inch of rain, while others could see 2 to 3 inches or more. The current NWS forecast is below.
The NWS forecast for rainfall shows best odds of 1 inch or more north of Houston. I believe some areas, especially south of I-10 may see lesser amounts than shown here. (Weather Bell)
The more sustained storms north and east of Houston will likely allow for heavier rain, so those areas have the highest odds of seeing 1 inch or more. Areas south of I-10, where storms may struggle to get going this morning stand the best odds of seeing a quarter-inch or less. Some of our higher resolution models show some serious rainfall gaps south of Houston, with some places seeing next to no rain and others seeing almost an inch. So it’s going to be a roll of the dice today.
Weekend
For those able to enjoy weekends, you’re in for another winner. Saturday will see any lingering clouds in the morning quickly give way to sunshine. Saturday will start off quite warm and very humid. The front should sweep through mid-morning, and that will allow the air to dry out a bit. Drier air tends to heat up faster, so we should easily reach the mid-80s Saturday afternoon. I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see some upper-80s out there either. At least the humidity will be dropping through the day.
Drier air tends to cool off faster too, so expect temperatures to drop quickly under clear skies Saturday evening into the 60s and eventually the 50s in spots.
Sunday looks warm as well, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and plentiful sunshine again. Humidity will remain low.
Early next week
Look for onshore flow to kick back in pretty effectively on Sunday night and Monday. You’re probably going to notice the wind kick up as well later Monday into Tuesday. Winds will probably gust to 30 mph at times, especially near the coast. We should see more clouds, more humidity, and maybe some light rain, drizzle, or a few showers. Nothing really substantial is expected through Tuesday night, however.
Later next week
Our next front is coming next week — sometime. Right now, the GFS model is bringing the front through on Wednesday night, about 12 to 24 hours faster than the European model. So we’ll split the difference and pencil in a front for later Wednesday or early Thursday right now. That should set temperatures back to comfortable levels for late April once again for a couple days. Enjoy it while we have it around!
