Good morning. We’re continuing to get closer to the end of this Arctic blast, but we’re not there yet. The remaining concerns are icy roads and bridges this morning, and the potential for a hard freeze tonight, and again Friday night for areas well inland. We also have an update on the region’s improving power situation.

Thursday

A band of light winter precipitation is falling north of Houston this morning, bringing sleet and snow flurries north of a line from Brenham to Conroe, and this will continue to move to the northeast. This morning, for the northern half of the region, we’ll continue to see some icy spots on roads and bridges with temperatures at or just above freezing. For Houston, today will be cold and breezy, with highs generally rising to the mid-30s to about 40 degrees, and mostly cloudy skies. Winds out of the north will keep wind chill values below freezing.

As the atmosphere dries out this afternoon and evening, and skies clear, temperatures will again plunge tonight. Lows are likely from 15 to 25 inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69, and even coastal areas will likely see lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. For inland areas, this will raise additional concerns about pipes.

Friday

This day will be warmer, with highs climbing into the low to mid-40s area wide, and plenty of sunshine. A persistent northerly wind will still keep wind chills on the cooler side, however. Lows Friday night will likely drop below freezing for inland areas again on Friday night, but will stay several degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday and beyond

After Saturday morning we are finally done with the freezes. Highs Saturday should reach into the mid-50s, and by Sunday get into the 60s. A mild cool front will bring some slight rain chances into the region on Sunday night, and first half of next week looks quite decent. Highs will mostly be in the 60s, with lows in the 40s and 50s. We should continue to see plenty of sunshine. There are no additional Arctic fronts on the horizon.

Power

Power generating plants are finally coming back online and we’ve seen significant decreases in power outages overnight. As you may recall, about 4.4 million Texas households and businesses were without power on Tuesday morning, and that number was about 3 million on Wednesday. This morning, about 620,000 customers are without power across the state, and there have been significant improvements in the greater Houston area. (For example, about 120,000 of 160,000 customers in Galveston County remained without power on Wednesday. This morning, the number of outages is down to 8,600.) We can probably expect some rolling outages today and tomorrow, but the worst of this situation seems to be passing. Please, please continue to conserve power so that service may be restored to all.

Water

City of Houston officials have said they expect the city’s water system to become fully operational by the end of today. The boil water notice in effect for Houston, and many surrounding areas, is likely to continue for a longer period of time.

This week Houston has survived a freakish snow and ice storm, extreme cold, and bout of freezing rain. So what else does Old Man Winter have to throw our way? Well, my friends, there is just one last sting in the tail, then it looks like this mess will be over.

At least from the standpoint of weather—in terms of electricity and water, that is another issue entirely. As of this evening, about 2.3 million Texas homes and businesses remain without power, and about half of those are in the greater Houston area. For millions of your neighbors, the misery continues.

Wednesday night

In the wake of precipitation earlier today, cold air from yet another front is now moving into the Houston area. Temperatures will drop to freezing levels north of Interstate 10 tonight, and where ice or water remained on roads today, this will refreeze tonight. There is also the possibility of some light snow or sleet late tonight north of Interstate 10. In these areas you’ll need to watch for icy spots on roads through about noon on Thursday. Closer to the coast, a freeze is unlikely overnight.

Thursday and Thursday night

High temperatures on Thursday should get into the mid- to upper-30s. Brisk winds out of the north will knock wind chill temperatures below freezing. But at least we should be dry after lots of wintry precipitation. After a cloudy start, a bit of sunshine may peek out later in the afternoon on Thursday. This will be nice, but clearing skies also means we’ll see strong radiational cooling on Thursday night, with lows again dropping into the 20s on Thursday night.

It. damn. sure. would. be. nice. to. have. power. back. by. then. ERCOT.

Friday and beyond

After a cold start, sunshine should help temperatures warm into the low 40s on Friday, but with a northerly wind it will feel cold out all day. Low temperatures on Friday night will still be very cold, but should be a couple of degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Highs on Saturday should push into the 50s, and the threat of a freeze will finally be over.

Good morning. The Houston area is now on day three of a miserable stretch of weather that has been magnified by widespread and ongoing power outages that seemingly have no end. Of the weather, we can at least say this, Houston is closer to the end of this Arctic blast than the beginning.

Wednesday

Generally light precipitation is falling across the metro area, and as anticipated this is simply rainfall south of the freezing line, and freezing rain to the north. Right now this line stretches roughly from Columbus to Katy to Cypress to Kingwood. This freezing line should lift slowly north to the northern edge of Harris County by around mid-morning, and to Highway 105 by around noon. (Here’s a list of current icy road conditions). Most of the region should be passable by noon as temperatures warm, but motorists along and north of Interstate 10 should take care on roads, especially bridges and elevated highways, until ice has melted.

Precipitation will begin to exit the area to the east by noon or shortly thereafter, leaving a cold and gray day in its wake. High temperatures today will generally reach about 40 degrees south of Interstate 10, and mid- to upper-30s north of the freeway. However, for inland areas—again, north of Interstate 10—temperatures will begin to approach freezing levels by around sunset or within a few hours after this. Depending on the extent to which roadways dried, any lingering water may freeze, and travel may remain treacherous in some locations. Lows will drop into the upper 20s for inland areas, and remain at or just above freezing closer to the coast.

Thursday

As additional cold air surges into the area on Wednesday night—and this is the final push of very cold air—we’ll see one more slight chance of precipitation in the form of snow or sleet during the morning hours. However, this is generally expected to be slight, and not pose additional problems on roadways. Highs should reach into the mid- to upper-30s on Thursday, with one more very cold night. Lows will drop into the 20s for much of the region.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend will see stair-stepping high temperatures of 40s on Friday, 50s on Saturday and 60s on Sunday. There will be plenty of sunshine. Houston is unlikely to see a freeze again this winter after Saturday morning, but after what we’ve been through this week I am making no guarantees.

Power outages

The catastrophic power outage continues across much of Texas, with 2.8 million customers still without power statewide as of 7:30 am Wednesday morning. This is down from 4.4 million on Tuesday morning, but about half of those losses are within the Houston metro area. State officials who manage the electric grid at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas have not been able to provide any reliable information about when power may be restored to all. This really is unacceptable in weather conditions such as these.

Much of the Houston area has warmed to at or above-freezing levels today, but just as the region can start to take a breath, Mother Nature is readying a second punch. It will come tonight in the form of another round of precipitation, which will fall as freezing rain for inland areas.

Tuesday night

Road conditions have been improving today, and should remain so until later evening, or possibly even midnight. After this point precipitation from a coastal low pressure system will begin overspreading the area. The key question is where the freezing line falls, north of which will produce freezing rainfall. Initially, this line will likely fall roughly along Interstate 10, and then may migrate northward as temperatures warm Wednesday morning. The big concern this presents is accumulating freezing rain on roads and power lines, especially north of Highway 105.

The bottom line: Travel in the northern half of Harris County, and points north, could become problematic to rather dangerous late this evening, and should be avoided after about 10pm.

Wednesday

The precipitation will come to an end by around noon on Wednesday, and then it becomes a game of when air temperatures will warm enough to melt off any ice on roadways. For now I think that will occur before noon in Harris County, and probably after noon in Montgomery County. There likely will be some point around Highway 105, or north, where it does not get warm enough to burn through the ice. Where that will be? Can’t say for sure right now.

In Houston itself, expect highs to reach the upper 30s, with lows dropping just below freezing Wednesday night. Some additional light precipitation is possible Wednesday night, but at this point is not expected to cause major additional problems.

Thursday and beyond

Thursday looks cloudy and cool, with highs in the upper 30s to 40 degrees. But the rain will be over. Thursday night will provide one more sting, with lows dropping into the 20s. After this we’ll be off to the races in terms of sunshine and warming. We should see mostly sunny skies into early next week.

We’ll have a comprehensive update for you in the morning. Please stay safe, and as warm as these trying conditions permit.