About nine weeks have now passed since the brutal winter storm that crippled the state of Texas’ electricity generation system. Since that time, however, Houston has enjoyed mostly spectacular weather. It’s difficult to quantify things, but the large majority of weekends have seen mostly sunny skies, dry air, and mild temperatures. This most recent weekend brought more of the same weather and the (very) early outlook for next weekend is not bad. I hope you’ve enjoyed it, because March and April typically offer some of this region’s nicest weather, and this year both months delivered.

Monday

Temperatures this morning are in the mid-60s, and they will climb into the low 80s this afternoon with partly sunny skies. Winds will blow from the southeast at about 10 mph, with higher gusts, and this will signal the return of the onshore flow. With this influx of more moist air humidity levels will rise, and overnight temperatures will likely not fall below 70 degrees for much of the metro area tonight.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly cloudy, and this likely will help to limit temperatures in the low 80s. Winds will continue to blow from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph, and this will pump up moisture levels for rain chances later this week, but for now Tuesday should remain free from precipitation. Lows Tuesday night will only drop into the low 70s.

Wednesday

Another day with a breezy flow off the Gulf of the Mexico. It’s possible there will be some breaks in the clouds on Wednesday, and if so this will allow temperatures to climb into the mid- to upper-80s. This likely will be the warmest day of the week, and for now at least rain chances should remain about 10 percent or less. Lows will again be warm.

Thursday and Friday

A front will approach the region on Thursday and should cross the area by Thursday evening. This front will bring a healthy chance of showers to the region. Right now accumulations for most areas will probably be in the one-tenth to one-half inch range, with most rain during the daytime on Thursday. Highs on Thursday should be in the low 80s. Some rain chances will linger on Friday, but any accumulations should be very slight. Friday will see partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

For now, we think Houston will see a drier pattern this weekend, with at least partly sunny skies. As we enter May, it’s difficult to beat highs in the low 80s with moderate dewpoints. We can’t entirely rule out some rain chances, at least not yet, but overall the weekend forecast looks promising at this point.

The main story in today’s post will be regarding the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms today. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the Houston area in a “Slight” risk (level 2/5) of severe weather today. Areas around Lake Livingston and Crockett are in an “Enhanced” risk (level 3/5) of severe weather.

Let’s walk through what to expect.

When will it rain?
We are already seeing a few showers across the area, with some localized downpours east of I-45 and lighter showers or light rain and drizzle elsewhere. Look for the coverage of showers to increase through the morning and continue off and on through at least mid-afternoon. It will not rain all day, and it may not even rain everywhere. But that chance is going to hang with us all day today, so it’s best to have an umbrella at the ready wherever you go. A second round of showers or storms is possible this evening, but confidence in what that exactly looks like is low. Rain chances will drop off and eventually end overnight after a cold front pushes through toward morning.

When is the best chance for severe weather?
There will be two chances at severe weather today. The first will be with a warm front lifting north across the area from late morning into early afternoon. That could produce individual thunderstorms capable of producing large hail or an isolated tornado. The relative highest odds of that occurring would be north of I-10 and east of I-45, particularly as you get closer to that “Enhanced risk” area northeast of Houston. The second opportunity will likely come with the “dryline” sweeping east late this afternoon or evening. Severe weather may occur in Central or North Texas as individual cells develop, eventually probably congealing into more a squall line and general strong, damaging wind threat as it sweeps east.

There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding exactly how things will play out today, but if it looks more serious closer to the Houston area we will keep you posted.

Will there be tornadoes? Hail?
As is often the case, the odds of any one location seeing significant severe weather today is quite low. But that said, hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat from today’s storms. But, yes, there is at least a chance for an isolated tornado, particularly with the late morning and early afternoon storms that develop mainly north and east of Houston. The best hail odds today will be with the storms developing in Central Texas, especially initially. As those approach the Houston area this evening, I would expect the hail threat to diminish and transition more to a damaging wind one.

When will it end?
There will probably be a lull late this evening or early in the overnight. A brief shower or storm can’t be entirely ruled out late tonight or very early Saturday morning as the cold front approaches. But for the most part, the rain chances and severe weather risks will end after this evening.

How much rain should we expect today?
It’s likely that rain totals are wildly variable across the region today. It’s possible some places see merely a few hundredths or a couple tenths of an inch of rain, while others could see 2 to 3 inches or more. The current NWS forecast is below.

The more sustained storms north and east of Houston will likely allow for heavier rain, so those areas have the highest odds of seeing 1 inch or more. Areas south of I-10, where storms may struggle to get going this morning stand the best odds of seeing a quarter-inch or less. Some of our higher resolution models show some serious rainfall gaps south of Houston, with some places seeing next to no rain and others seeing almost an inch. So it’s going to be a roll of the dice today.

Weekend

For those able to enjoy weekends, you’re in for another winner. Saturday will see any lingering clouds in the morning quickly give way to sunshine. Saturday will start off quite warm and very humid. The front should sweep through mid-morning, and that will allow the air to dry out a bit. Drier air tends to heat up faster, so we should easily reach the mid-80s Saturday afternoon. I wouldn’t be entirely shocked to see some upper-80s out there either. At least the humidity will be dropping through the day.

Drier air tends to cool off faster too, so expect temperatures to drop quickly under clear skies Saturday evening into the 60s and eventually the 50s in spots.

Sunday looks warm as well, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and plentiful sunshine again. Humidity will remain low.

Early next week

Look for onshore flow to kick back in pretty effectively on Sunday night and Monday. You’re probably going to notice the wind kick up as well later Monday into Tuesday. Winds will probably gust to 30 mph at times, especially near the coast. We should see more clouds, more humidity, and maybe some light rain, drizzle, or a few showers. Nothing really substantial is expected through Tuesday night, however.

Later next week

Our next front is coming next week — sometime. Right now, the GFS model is bringing the front through on Wednesday night, about 12 to 24 hours faster than the European model. So we’ll split the difference and pencil in a front for later Wednesday or early Thursday right now. That should set temperatures back to comfortable levels for late April once again for a couple days. Enjoy it while we have it around!

After another resplendent springtime day on Wednesday, clouds and humidity will return on Thursday. This will set the stage for widespread rainfall on Friday but we’re fortunate to have another great weekend on tap after the storms pass.

Thursday

Lows this morning have dropped into the upper 40s for areas well inland, but most of the metro region is seeing temperatures in the low to mid-50s. However, as easterly winds turn more southeasterly, we’ll see a more rapid return of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This is already leading to the development of some clouds, and by this afternoon skies should turn mostly cloudy. Highs today will reach the low 70s for most areas, with overnight lows only dropping a few degrees. Rains should hold off until late tonight.

Friday

The return of moisture and approach of a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere should bring widespread rainfall into the Houston region on Friday and Friday night. Showers should be scattered during the morning hours, but pick up in coverage and intensity later during the day, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Some uncertainty definitely remains, but I think areas south of Interstate 10 should generally receive about 0.5 inch of rain, whereas areas north of I-10 could see 1.0 inch or more. There are some risks for severe weather, particularly strong thunderstorms with damaging winds, and hail. Please note, much of the area will probably not experience severe weather, but it is something to watch out for. Despite mostly cloudy skies, highs will reach into the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend still looks quite nice, with a front on Friday night dragging drier air into the region. This will lead to clearing skies on Saturday, with at-times brisk northerly winds. Highs will climb into the low 80s, with lows dropping on Saturday night to around 60 degrees in Houston. Sunday will be sunny, again in the low 80s, with a cool but not cold night.

Next week

Houston will begin a warming trend on Monday, and likely reach the mid- to upper-80s by midweek before another front approaches the area. We still have questions about the details, but this front will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area after a period of sunny days.

The low temperature this morning at Houston’s official weather station, Bush Intercontinental Airport, has dropped to 46 degrees. This is within 4 degrees of the record low for this date, and is the coldest morning after April 20 since May 3, 2003. It won’t last!

Wednesday

With apparent temperatures in the 30s across inland parts of the region, this is definitely a morning to bundle up. Those northeast winds will continue to blow at 10 to 15 mph today, with higher gusts. Thanks to mostly sunny skies, high temperatures should rise to around 70 degrees across the area. Winds will slacken some this evening, shifting to come from the east. Lows tonight will drop to around 50 degrees north of Interstate 10, with warmer conditions closer to the coast.

Thursday

As high pressure associated with Tuesday night’s front moves east of the area, winds will bend to come from offshore, and this will drive atmospheric moisture levels upward. Gusts may reach about 20 mph. This will result in the return of some clouds Thursday, and then very healthy rain chances on Friday. Highs on Thursday will climb into the low 70s, and overnight lows will likely not fall below the upper 60s. Some very light, scattered showers will be possible Thursday night.

Friday

This will be a humid and wet day. Highs will likely reach the upper 70s, but the bigger story will be the increase of showers and thunderstorms from late morning through the evening hours. This weather will be spurred by an upper-level low pressure system that will bring a slight potential for severe weather, including hail, to much of the state.

The region could use more rainfall, so it’s hard to complain too much about a wet Friday. Although we expect accumulations of 0.5 to 2.0 inches across much of the area, we do have a few concerns about locally heavy rainfall that briefly flood low-lying streets, at worst. This may affect Friday evening’s commute home. It does look as though rain chances for Houston will end early on Saturday morning, before sunrise, as a cool front clears the area.

Saturday and Sunday

With drier air in place, the weekend looks quite nice. We should see mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s, and lows in the low 60s, for both Saturday and Sunday. My only slight concern is some potentially gusty winds on Saturday, perhaps above 20 mph, as the front moves in.

Next week

It looks like the region will see a warming trend before another (weak, probably?) front pushes through sometime around Wednesday. This will bring another decent chance of rain to the region, although we can’t say much more than that. Will it bring 0.1 inch or 1 inch of rain? Stay tuned.