It’s kind of crazy to think that our last full tropical update was two weeks ago, and we noted how things were about to ramp up. For many folks in Louisiana, the world is a much different place today than it was then. For Houston, I think we had a moment there. You exhale, but then you realize that nothing has really changed, and all it takes is one more storm to bring us right back to where we were sitting in the days before Laura. So will that happen? Probably not, but let’s walk through things.
Tropical outlook in a sentence
We expect several systems to develop over the next week or two across the basin, but right now only one of them is worth seriously watching and even it will be racing against the potential cold front next week.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16
The system that we referred to as Invest 99L yesterday has been classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 (PTC 16) in the Caribbean this morning, meaning it is expected to become a depression or named entity soon. It looks fairly healthy on satellite, and it will likely develop over the next couple days.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 is not a threat to the Gulf of Mexico, but it will deliver heavy rain to parts of Central America. (NOAA)
Fortunately, thanks to our oppressive heat in Texas, with sprawling high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, this will keep PTC 16 well to our south. No need to worry about this coming to the Gulf. So what is coming after this system?
Well, we made it. August has ended. You may recall at the outset of this month I wrote that August was a month to survive in Houston: “If you’re in Houston in August and the high temperature is not in the upper 90s or higher, the streets aren’t flooding, and you’re not concerned about an impending hurricane—it’s a win.” Alas we didn’t do much winning in August. The daily high temperature was 98 degrees or higher on 15 days last month, and we spent about 10 days worrying about an impending hurricane. So August was August, and now, at least, it’s over.
It’s going to be very hot again on Tuesday in Houston. (Pivotal Weather)
Tuesday
September won’t bring immediate change to Houston in terms of temperatures, but we do still expect a pattern shift in about nine or 10 days time. Alas, Houston will remain under a heat advisory on Tuesday, with high temperatures in the upper-90s across much of the region and sultry humidity pushing the heat index to 110 degrees or higher for much of the region. Skies will be mostly sunny. Let’s be honest, this is pretty oppressive weather—the only very slight relief will come from a southerly breeze, which may at times gust above 20 mph. Rain chances are near zero.
Wednesday and Thursday
For now we’ll go with continued hot and mostly sunny weather for these days, and additional heat advisories will probably be warranted for the Houston metro area. The one wrinkle is that an upper-level low pressure system and a cold front over North Texas may help spur a few showers in Houston, but for now I think we’ll remain dry. The best bet is on continued heat and sunshine. We do have some concerns for the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area and this system, as it could bring 6 inches of rain or more through Thursday, which may lead to some localized flooding in central and northern Texas between now and Thursday.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
The forecast for the weekend remains a bit uncertain as some tropical moisture may move in from the Gulf of Mexico. This may elevate rain chances to on the order of about 30 percent each day, but for the most part I expect Houston to remain hot, in the mid-90s, and partly to mostly sunny. We’ll try to pin this forecast down in the next day or so.
Yes, the front is still there in both the GFS (shown) and European models. (Weather Bell)
Next week
We’re still looking at the possibility of a pretty decent cold front by Wednesday or so of next week. We are making no promises—early season fronts often fail to materialize—but this feature remains fairly consistent within the models. If it happens, we can probably expect a nice shot of rainfall, before drier and cooler air moves in. Should the front happen, it probably would bring a couple of days of highs in the 80s, with lows in the 60s. So, fingers crossed, Houston. All of them.
Lost amid the concern about Hurricane Laura over the last week is that summer pretty much has chugged along and late August in Houston is doing late August things. Saturday’s high temperature reached 101 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and the dew points of around 80 degrees on some recent mornings have just been gross. The question in everyone’s mind, therefore, is when will it end? The flippant answer for long-time Houston residents is November. But the real answer is that, just maybe, we’re about 10 days away from the region’s first real cool front.
August, as usual, has been quite hot and humid. (National Weather Service)
As we’ll discuss in the post below, our weather for the next week remains hot. But about 10 days from now there are hints in the global models of a decently strong cold front arriving in the Houston area. There are a couple of reasons for skepticism: We get a lot of “mirage” fronts popping up in the models at this time of year that falsely advertise the arrival of cool fronts, and this one would be about two weeks earlier than normal for Houston. On the other hand, this front has been fairly consistent in the model forecasts. At this point, therefore, I would say there is about a 50 percent chance of a nice front pushing into Houston about 10 days from now. That is not a guarantee.
European ensemble model for forecast lows through Monday, September 15. (Weather Bell)
Monday
Welcome to a new week, with plenty of more heat. Today will see partly to mostly sunny skies across the region. Some moisture has surged into the region, and this probably will be enough to generate some short-lived showers and thunderstorms for about 30 percent of the area. Southerly winds will be noticeable, gusting to about 20 mph. Unless showers cool you off this afternoon, expect high temperatures to get into the mid- to upper-90s. Overnight temperatures will remain very sticky.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
For now we don’t anticipate a whole lot of variance across these three days with partly to mostly sunny skies and daily highs in the mid-90s. We can’t entirely rule out some showers on the northwest or northern periphery of the Houston metro area, but for the most part we’re going to see no rain. Nights will be sticky and warm.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
By this weekend some clouds enter the forecast and a front over north Texas may help to generate some showers over Houston. But for now the weekend forecast remains fairly uncertain—except for the fact that we can probably count on plenty of heat.
Five-day tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center at 7am CT Monday.
Tropics
I wrote a quick post about the tropics on Sunday, and our general thinking remains the same. While there are lots of areas of interest across the Atlantic Basin today, we still don’t see too much to be concerned about when it comes to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Matt will have more in his weekly tropics post on Tuesday.
Just a quick update on Sunday morning to note the Christmas-tree like appearance of the National Hurricane Center’s Five-day tropical outlook. In the wake of Hurricane Laura this map may cause some anxiety, but the message we want to leave with you is that none of these systems—for the time being at least—really appear to be a big threat to the Texas coast.
The National Hurricane Center tropical outlook for Sunday, 7am CT.
Let’s quickly run through them.
System One: On the face of it, this tropical wave moving through the Caribbean Sea would appear to be the biggest threat as it is closest, and we often see these systems turn pole-ward as they approach Central America. However for this tropical system we’re not convinced it will develop at all, and even if it does it most likely will continue plowing westward into Belize or Honduras. Here is the European ensemble forecast for the track of this system:
European model ensemble forecast for now through Wednesday night. (Weathernerds.org)
System Two: It is difficult to say whether this wave will develop, although its certainly possible. None of the forecast models are overly excited about this one, however.
System Three: This low-pressure system originated in the northwest Gulf of Mexico late last week, and is now crossing Florida. It probably will become a named storm (Nana is the next name) in the Atlantic, moving away from the United States. It will not threaten any major landmasses.
System Four: The forecast models are more bullish on this becoming a pretty well defined tropical system in about a week or so over the open Atlantic. It’s difficult to say where it would go after that, but most of the available evidence suggests it probably will not move toward the Gulf of Mexico. But as always, confidence in forecasts drops off after about 7 days.
Other threats: The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season comes in about 10 days from now, and we are seeing indications that several more potent tropical waves will move off of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean over the next couple of weeks. All of these will have to be watched. There is also the potential for something to develop in the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico) around 8 to 10 days from now that is worth watching. However any mischief there moving north is far from guaranteed—in fact a greater likelihood at this time is that our first fall front may be moving toward the region at that time. Cross your fingers!
So please: Be watchful of the tropics, and be wary. But at this time you should not be overly worried.
