Good morning. Skies are clearing across the metro area, and the region will now see a few days of sunshine before the arrival of yet another front brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. But mostly, we’re just going to see cool, December-like weather in the days ahead.

Wednesday

Winds are blowing out of the northwest this morning at 10 to 15 mph across the area, and this influx of colder and drier air will make for a cool day. High temperatures are unlikely to rise further than the mid-50s, despite the ample sunshine. Mostly clear skies and light winds will make for a cold night, with a light freeze possible north and west of Houston, with the urban center likely remaining several degrees above freezing.

Thursday

We can expect another splendidly sunny day, with temperatures a few degrees warmer as highs climb to around 60 degrees for much of the area. Winds will shift to come from the south later in the day on Thursday, and this will make for a warmer night, with lows likely only falling into the 40s for most areas.

Friday

We’ll start to see some clouds on Friday, and high temperatures should push into the mid- to upper 60s in response to the onshore flow. At this point I think skies will remain mostly sunny throughout the day, with any rain holding off until the evening or more likely overnight hours. Lows on Friday night may not drop below 60 degrees for some areas.

Saturday

The best chances for rain will come between midnight on Friday and Saturday before noon. Most areas will probably see only a few tenths of an inch of rain before a front arrives during the afternoon hours to dry the atmosphere out. We may end up seeing at least partly sunny skies on Saturday, in addition to the rain. Highs will probably reach 70 degrees ahead of the front before a chilly night.

Sunday

Expect mostly sunny skies, with highs perhaps in the low 60s. Sunday night may see temperatures drop into the low 40s for much of the area except for the coast.

Next week, and Christmas Day

The region should warm up back to near 70 degrees by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, and then it becomes a waiting game to determine the timing and strength of the next front that will determine our weather for Christmas Day. Right now, I think this front may arrive any time between next Wednesday, Wednesday night, or Christmas Eve. At this point, the bulk of the model guidance shows the coldest morning coming on Christmas morning, with the potential for lows in the low 40s, or even upper 30s, but it’s difficult to have much confidence at this point in precise temperatures. Some rainfall may well accompany this front, but it likely will end before temperatures get cold enough to produce any chance of wintry precipitation—sorry kids.

Good morning. Houston’s weather will generally remain on the chilly side for the next 7 to 10 days as mid-December feels a lot like mid-December in Houston. This has been a difficult year for many, for many reasons, but at least Mother Nature seems to be doing its part to help us feel like we’re entering the holiday season.

Tuesday

The onshore flow has resumed, with winds blowing out of the southeast at 5 to 10, and as a result we’re going to see mostly cloudy skies today. There should be enough moisture and lift this afternoon to produce widespread, but light showers. I’m expecting most areas to not see more than one- to two-tenths of an inch of rain, primarily during the afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the western parts of the metro area this evening, and likely push off the coast before sunrise on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

This will be a cold day, with winds from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Although skies should clear out during the morning hours to bring us some sunshine, much of the area may not get above 50 degrees. Clear skies and cold air will set the stage for a night that will likely bring a freeze for much of the area outside of the city’s urban core, and away from the coast. Lows in Houston itself will probably drop into the mid-30s.

Thursday

Another sunny, slightly warmer day as winds become calm. Highs may get into the upper 50s, and lows Thursday night will probably be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday and Saturday

Some clouds begin to return by Friday along with the onshore flow. Because this more moist, southerly flow will have a better chance to get established it will lead to warmer days and, eventually, a better chance of rain. Highs both Friday and Saturday will likely get into the mid- to upper-60s. Rain chances will increase Friday night and into Saturday as a front approaches Houston. I’m still not overly confident in accumulations this weekend, but I’d guess for now that much of the area will see around one-half inch. The next front should push through Saturday afternoon or evening, with clearing afterward.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks like a winner for outdoor activity, with light northerly winds, sunny skies, and highs likely in the 60s.

Next week

We’re still watching the forecast for Christmas Day closely—it’s now just 10 days away! The European model pretty clearly shows a warming trend on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, and then brings a fairly stout front through on Christmas Eve. This would set the stage for what would probably be a cold and clear Christmas Day. The GFS model seems to be coming around to this scenario as well, but it’s not as set upon it. Bottom line: We are probably looking at seasonal, cold weather for Christmas, but the forecast is far enough out that overall confidence remains low.

In the wake of an at-times stormy Sunday, and a gusty Sunday night following the passage of a cold front, Houston will experience a winter-like week with days mostly in the 50s and cold nights. Some areas will likely even see a freeze on Wednesday night. Also, we’re now only 11 days away from Christmas Day, so we can also take our first real look at the holiday forecast.

Monday

Some blustery winds remain this morning, but they should generally subside as high pressure moves off to the east. High temperatures today will depend upon the extent to which clouds break down this afternoon. Some areas may reach the low 50s but other parts of the metro area will remain in the 40s. Winds shift to come from the east later today, and nighttime temperatures should drop to around 40 in Houston—cooler inland, and warmer along the coast.

Tuesday

We’ll see more clouds on Tuesday as yet another cold front crosses the area. There will be limited moisture for the front to work with, but it may generate some light showers across the area—I would not expect more than one or two-tenths of an inch of rainfall. Any lingering showers should end by or before sunset on Tuesday, with another chilly night dropping down to around 40 degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday

The middle of the week will be cool and sunny in the wake of the front. We can expect highs in the 50s to go along with moderate north or northwest winds. Wednesday night will be the coldest of the week, most likely, with a light freeze possible for outlying areas.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Heading into the weekend we should see some clouds mixing into the sky, as temperatures warm a little bit—perhaps into the low 60s? We may see some showers on Friday or Saturday ahead of the region’s next front. At this point they neither look all that strong or severe, but out confidence in this is far from absolute. The next front then pushes through either on Saturday or Saturday night, which likely would yield a cool and clear day on Sunday.

Christmas week

It’s hard to believe, but December 25th falls on the Friday of next week. So what kind of weather can we anticipate for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day? The models generally agree that next week will probably be at least a little warmer than this week with its highs in the 50s. The long range models suggest another fairly strong front will push through during the Christmas Eve time frame, just in time for the holiday. I would at this point label this as a strong “maybe,” and if the front does arrive it would make for a fairly cold Christmas. I’d even go so far as to say there’s maybe a 5 percent—that’s a 1-in-20 chance, friends—of some kind of wintry precipitation around that timeframe. But most likely it will just be rain of some sort, with the time and amount to be determined.