Goodbye sunshine (and winter), and hello clouds

Houston enjoyed a block of four solidly sunny, splendid days from Saturday through Tuesday in the wake of last week’s Arctic freeze. But now the sunshine party is over, with clouds and humidity taking its place. This is likely to remain the case for the next week or so. In the image below, an ensemble forecast for cloud cover, white denotes clouds and darker colors sunshine.

This ensemble forecast for Houston shows a near total lack of sunshine until next Tuesday, or later. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

Lows this morning are starting out at about 60 degrees—a remarkable contrast to just eight days ago when the low was 13 degrees. Welcome to Houston weather.

Winds are now blowing from the south or southwest, and this will bring in additional moisture and humidity throughout the day. However, any rain showers will be very light, and very scattered. For the most part it will just be mostly cloudy skies, with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Lows tonight will again only drop to around 60 for much of the area, and the development of sea fog is very likely along the coast.

Thursday

A weak (and dying) cold front will sag into Houston after midnight, likely pushing to around the Interstate 10 corridor. This will bring better rain chances, but I still expect anything that falls to be light in nature, with accumulations of a tenth of an inch, or two.  This will lead to highs on Thursday in the 60s, with somewhat drier air for inland areas, and lower 70s closer to the coast, with more humidity. Lows Thursday night will depend on where you lie in regard to the front, and our best guess is shown on the map below.

Lows will range from the 40s to 60s across the region on Friday morning. (Weather Bell)

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

After the potential for some partly sunny skies on Friday afternoon, the weekend period looks to see continued warm and gray for the Houston region, with highs in the 70s, lows in the 60s, and a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain each day. So this will be the very definition of mild weather for Houston. One negative is the (very) likely development of sea fog as this warmer air moves over still much cooler shelf waters.

Next week

Most of the forecast model guidance is on board with a stronger cool front arriving later on Monday, or Monday night, which should usher Houston back into weather conditions more closely resembling late winter or early spring. Confidence in the front passage is not absolute, but I think next week will probably see daily highs around 70 degrees, lows in the 50s, and more sunshine.

Last cold morning for awhile—plenty of humidity and clouds ahead

It’s a rather chilly morning across the region, with temperatures falling from the mid-30s far north of Houston to the upper 40s right along the coast. However, these will be the last chilly temperatures that Houston experiences for awhile, and today will also probably be our last mostly sunny day until next week.

Houston won’t see temperatures in the 30s and 40s again, like this morning, for at least a week. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

Some light sea fog will burn off fairly soon after sunrise, and temperatures will rise fairly quickly through the morning. High temperatures should reach the mid- to upper-70s across Houston with mostly sunny skies. Light winds will become more pronounced out of the south tonight, and temperatures will only drop into the upper 50s for most. These winds may help to work against the development of fog on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Increasing moisture levels will lead to a day of at least partly, if not mostly cloudy skies. Light, very scattered showers will be possible, but for the most part I think we’ll just see gray skies. High temperatures will likely reach the mid-70s. Overnight, a weak cold front will approach Texas, but most of the high-resolution modeling suggests it will stall out along Interstate 10, or just north of there. As a result, fog may be a problem for coastal areas for the rest of the week.

Thursday and Friday

Conditions toward the end of the week will depend upon which side of the front you find yourself. Highs along the coast will likely be in the 70s, and in the 60s for areas further inland. There will be decent rain chances on both days, but accumulations overall should be slight, measured in tenths of an inch.

This dewpoint forecast for Thursday morning shows the NAM model forecast for the extent of the weak cold front. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

As the front washes out, expect a warmer weekend for pretty much all of Houston—highs in the 70s, lows in the 60s, mostly cloudy skies and plenty of humidity. Perhaps a third of the area will see rain, again most likely in the form of light showers.

Next week

Our next chance of a front that makes it all the way to the coast comes about a week from today, and we should return to more normal conditions for this time of year by then.

Another arctic front?

There appear to be rumors spreading of another Arctic Outbreak moving into the greater Houston area during the first week of March. I’ve been asked about this multiple times on Twitter and in emails, so it must be circulating somewhere. I haven’t bothered to look. This rumor is not grounded in fact, however. While Houston may see some low temperatures in the 40s during the first week of March, I’d bet against anything lower. And I can definitively say we’re not going to see a repeat of what we saw earlier this month, with record lows and widespread snow and ice.

Thankfully, Houston’s weather turns pretty boring for awhile

It was nice to have a weekend where we didn’t have to think (or, frankly, write) much about the weather, and rather to just enjoy it. Sunshine, warmth, and mild weather all were tremendously welcome after Houston’s winter week from hell. Fortunately, there is more generally mild weather ahead and we really have no major concerns to highlight for you at this time.

Monday

A cold front pushed through Houston during the overnight hours, bringing down dewpoints and temperatures in its wake. Since this is not a particularly strong front, we still expect high temperatures today to rise to around 70 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be moderate, out of the north at about 5 to 10 mph.

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Tonight will be the coldest of the week, and perhaps for quite awhile across the region as we experience a warming trend going forward. Lows will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, and perhaps a degree or two colder in outlying areas. No one should see a freeze.

Tuesday

This should be another absolutely splendid day, with highs of around 70, or a bit warmer, and a lot more sunshine. Later in the day winds will turn more southerly, and that will begin the process of bringing more humid air into the region. Lows Tuesday night will be a 10 degrees warmer than Monday night.

Wednesday

By Wednesday morning I suspect we’ll start to see widespread sea fog developing as warmer air moves over colder bays and waterways. This could be a problem for several mornings through the weekend. Highs on Wednesday should reach the middle-70s despite increasing cloud cover, and lows in Houston may not drop below 60 degrees overnight.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week is somewhat uncertain given that the next cold front it scheduled to push toward Houston on Thursday, but stall somewhere. It might get all the way to Interstate 10, but I think the front will stall north of there. Accordingly, rain chances will be better along and north of I-10 on Thursday and Friday. Even then, accumulations should be only on the order of a quarter inch of rain. Depending on which side of the front you fall, highs will either be in the 60s (well inland) or upper 70s (most of Houston, probably). Nights in Houston will probably stay in the 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

Right now I don’t see much of a pattern change for the weekend. I think most of the region will be pretty warm, in the 70s at least, without much of a cooldown overnight. Rain chances will be on the order of 20 to 30 percent, and for the most part I think we’ll just see a lot of clouds.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Sunday. (Weather Bell)

Is winter over?

I really don’t want to tempt fate here, but the next 10 days or so do look pretty warm. If you’re looking around the killing fields—I mean, your garden and landscaping—you may be wondering if its safe to plant. If you live south of Interstate 10, I would bet heavily against seeing another freeze this season. But for inland areas, it’s just too early to offer such a guarantee.

And besides, it may be too early to determine whether some of your plants are truly dead. I like this advice from Texas A&M Agriculture Extension agent Larry Stein, who told the Houston Chronicle, “Obviously, we’re going to have some kind of damage, but the extent of it won’t be known for a while. We tell people to learn to like ugly. Basically, leave it ugly for a while … to give the plants time to recuperate and actually see the full extent of the damage.”

The worst is behind Houston with one cold night left and 60s on the horizon

Good morning. We hope this finds you well today. If you are available to help out in the community, Crowdsource Rescue is looking for volunteers in the Houston area to deliver relief today to those that need some:

Here’s a quick roundup on some key issues:

Power: Nothing new that I have seen from ERCOT this morning, and CenterPoint is reporting all but 3,900 customers with power (as of 6:30 A.M.). We don’t expect a repeat of this week’s mess, but we’d encourage you to continue conserving power where you are able for another day.

Water: For the city of Houston, it sounds like a boil water notice will remain in effect through much of the weekend. There will be water distribution today for folks who are unable to boil. Many other communities are in similar situations right now, so please monitor your community’s social media feeds or websites for information on status and bottled water availability.

Roads: Only a handful of issues remain out there, but they do exist so please drive cautiously, especially the next few hours. Check Houston Transtar’s website for the latest road conditions.

On to the weather.

Today

We are beginning the day with a hard freeze across much of the region. Temperatures have bottomed out at 27° at both Bush and Hobby Airports, colder elsewhere.

A hard freeze is occurring this morning across the region, with temperatures in the 20s everywhere except the coast. (Weather Bell)

With the sun out in force today, look for temps to bounce back above freezing by 10 to 11 A.M., and our high temperature will likely push well into the 40s in much of the area.

Saturday

Tonight will be the last really cold night. Expect a light freeze in Houston and points south and east (though coastal and bayfront communities may just barely get below 40 for a brief time). Another hard freeze is possible north and west of Houston, though the hours spent that will be a little less tomorrow morning than they were today. Saturday should see ample sunshine again with a few more clouds by late day and highs well into the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Sunday & Monday

It will be downright balmy on Sunday morning, with low temperatures only in the upper 30s and low 40s, approaching 50 at the coast. We will have a good deal of cloud cover on Sunday, but that won’t stop temperatures from hitting the 60s!

Soak up every bit of Sunday’s high temperature forecast. (WeatherBell)

Now, a cold front will sweep through the region on Sunday night, but this will be of the kinder, gentler variety like we’ve seen most of winter here. No organized rain is expected, and we’ll see lows mainly in the upper-30s to low-40s and highs in the low-60s behind the front for Sunday night and Monday into Monday night.

Rest of next week

One thing we can say with some confidence is that it looks fairly warm next week. There’s a good chance we’ll see a day or two in the 70s, as well as milder nighttimes. There should be another modest cold front flirting with us on Thursday and Friday, but the details around that are a bit uncertain. But we would expect some rain with that system. More on Monday!