For the second time in four days Mother Nature has delivered a surprise. In today’s case, a capping inversion that was expected to hold sway over the Houston region during the daytime Tuesday is breaking. Thus, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is now moving into the region from the southwest along with an upper-level disturbance.

With the cap breaking and plenty of moisture, it seems likely that this threat of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms may be with much of the metro area throughout the daylight hours today. Because of the high rainfall rates in some of these storms, we may see localized flooding throughout the afternoon hours. Storms should ebb this evening.

It still appears as though a bow-line feature will move through Houston after midnight, and push through the region from north to south, with the worst of it offshore by around sunrise or shortly thereafter. We still expect this system to deliver the kinds of severe weather we discussed in this morning’s weather post.

Good morning—it’s a sticky one with low temperatures only in the 70s with nearly matching dewpoints. Persistent southerly winds are blowing, and will continue to do so today, amping up moisture levels in advance of a storm system that will move into the region this evening and during the overnight hours.

Tuesday

Highs will climb into the mid-80s today for most of us, under mostly cloudy skies. As moisture levels rise today, some scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably develop, but the real action should wait for the overnight hours and the passage of a cold front. Most model guidance agrees that some sort of squall line will dip into, and through Houston between midnight and sunrise on Wednesday morning.

The entire Houston region lies under a “slight” risk of severe weather, with the primary threat damaging winds, and a secondary possibility hail. Although these storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, they should move pretty steadily from north to south, precluding widespread flooding.

Rainfall amounts will undoubtedly vary, but most of the region should see about 1 inch, give or take. This will include areas near the coast that have been quite dry of late.

Wednesday

As quickly as Tuesday night’s storms spin up and push through, they should clear the coast by mid-morning Wednesday, with clearing skies by late morning or early afternoon. This will help temperatures climb into the low 80s despite a persistent northerly wind.

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Good morning. If you were surprised by the widespread nature of showers and storms on Saturday and Saturday evening, you’re not alone. The forecast for Saturday—we expected sunshine and dry air to prevail—was a total bust. Matt did an analysis of the event on Twitter, and summarized the situation as follows, “Yesterday in Houston was one of the most impressive forecasting busts I’ve witnessed & been part of in a long while.” Needless to say, we’ll learn from this.

Monday

Houston is enjoying a pleasant morning, with lows down near 60 degrees in the city. Today should be another sunny affair, with highs pushing into the mid-80s. Humidity will be much more noticeable, as winds really pick up from the south, possibly gusting to 20mph. As a result of this more southerly flow, clouds should build tonight, and this should help prevent low temperatures from falling much below 70 for the area.

Tuesday

Clouds will remain on Tuesday, but highs will still get into the mid- to upper-80s as a warmer pattern prevails. Winds will still be active, blowing out of the south at about 15mph. A few scattered showers are possible Tuesday, but the better rain chances will probably hold off until the overnight hours.

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Well, some days Mother Nature can still surprise you.

As late as last night it appeared the atmosphere would dry out at all levels in the wake of Friday night’s cool front. However, that has not happened sufficiently. As a result, a fast-moving kink in the atmosphere will cross Houston from west-to east from around 1pm to 4pm today, and have enough moisture to work with to produce storms. The threat is briefly heavy rainfall and hail.

The storms should clear the area quickly, and we expect mostly sunny weather before and after, with a pleasantly cool evening. Low temperatures on Sunday should drop into the upper 50s for areas north of Houston, and we do expect a fully sunny day for the second half of the weekend.