Eye on the Tropics: The peak of hurricane season is here

Historically, this week marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. This year looks to live up to the hype as well.

The Atlantic looks like a basin that is at the peak of its season. (Weathernerds.org)

We have two tropical storms in the Atlantic today and there are likely to be at least a couple more before next week. We don’t think that any of these systems will seriously threaten the Gulf, however it is important to keep monitoring things, particularly with respect to the third system in line.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene will likely be followed by a third system this week off Africa, and while none looks especially likely to make it to the Gulf, it would be wise not to write them off completely, particularly the third system, given the recent model difficulties we’ve seen.

Tropical Storm Rene

I want to get Rene out of the way first because I think this one has the least future of note, as it relates to the U.S.

Tropical Storm Rene is likely heading out to sea, though it is expected to become a hurricane as it does so. (NOAA)

Tropical Storm Rene has 40 mph maximum sustained winds, and it is impacting the Cabo Verde Islands today. It is expected to track west and then turn northwest and north as it finds a “weakness” in the upper air pattern. The pattern does get a bit convoluted late, so Rene seems to strike me as a storm that could hang around in the open Atlantic for awhile, possibly taking a weird track as it does so. But it will not be a threat to the U.S. or Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Paulette

Tropical Storm Paulette has winds of 50 mph, so it’s a bit stronger than Rene. It’s also farther west. Paulette’s future is a little more difficult to project.

Paulette is expected to track off to the west and eventually turn north. While it should go out to sea, there is a chance it could come a bit farther west. (NOAA)

Paulette is going to be steered back to the west a bit by a building area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere. The storm will then have an opportunity to escape off to the north by the weekend as another area of high pressure off the U.S. East Coast gets eroded by a system moving through New England. I think Paulette’s track is of slightly lower confidence by this time. My doubt rests in Paulette’s intensity. With this pattern, I do wonder if Paulette’s weak intensity this weekend will allow it to escape underneath all that nonsense off the East Coast, which would allow it end up farther south and west of the forecast. In that situation, Paulette’s turn out to sea might wait to commence until it gets between the U.S. and Bermuda, rather than east of Bermuda as currently shown. While it would still likely end up out to sea, it could potentially create a bit more heartburn for folks on the East Coast. We’re about a week away from Paulette getting west of Bermuda if that were to happen, so it’s a lot of speculation. For us in the Gulf, Paulette probably poses no meaningful risk, but I’d at least keep a slight eye on this if I lived on the East Coast.

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Widespread showers possible today, front likely to miss on Thursday

Good morning. We’re now into the second week of September. A few of us had a friendly debate on Twitter this weekend about whether August or September was the worst month of the year in Houston, weather-wise. I’m definitely on Team August, for the simple reason that at least in September there is hope for a front and a hint of fall. Matt and several others said September is the worst for the very reason that some semblance of fall should be here in September, but it often is not. So what do you think? In any case, this week will be difficult as we watch a dying front approach the area, but likely not make a significant impact on our weather.

Tuesday

For some, this will be quite a wet day. We should see on-and-off rain showers across much of the area with a moist air mass and small feature in the atmosphere that will promote rising air. Some areas may see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, while others see little to no precipitation from these hit-and-miss showers. Where it’s not raining, partly sunny skies should help to push high temperatures into the low-90s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the upper 70s to around 80 right along the coast. Winds will be light out of the southeast.

NOAA forecast for cumulative rainfall between now and Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

This is another potentially wet day as the overall air mass remains fairly unsettled upstream, with a fairly strong front pushing into Texas. This may help generate some additional showers and thunderstorms over the Houston area, keeping highs again to around 90 degrees or perhaps a little bit higher.

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Sorry Houston, no strong front is coming this week

Hi everyone—just a quick Labor Day morning update here.

We’ve got some good news and some bad news, and we’ll start with the latter. If you’ll recall last week, we were 50-50 on whether a fairly robust cool front would push through the region. Alas, we’re now pretty confident it won’t make it. Summer, such as it is in Houston, will continue for awhile longer, albeit with highs mostly in the low 90s rather than the mid- or upper 90s.

The good news is that although we’re on the cusp of two more named storms forming in the Atlantic tropics, continuing this hurricane season’s record pace, we see no threats to the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days at least. This week is the historical peak of hurricane season, and for Texas the threat should be ebbing in about three or four weeks.

As for our weather this week, Labor Day will see a fair amount of sunshine and highs warming into the mid-90s. With slightly weaker high pressure over the region, some slow-moving showers and thunderstorms could produce 1 or more inches of rainfall today, but things will again be hit or miss. Tuesday should be similar.

The cold front is going to get hung up in Central Texas on Thursday. (Weather Bell)

The latter half of the week will be influenced by a cold front dropping into Texas and approaching our region. However, with the front likely stalling out around the Interstate 35 corridor, we only expect very slight effects locally. For now we’ll go with highs in the low 90s, and with lows dropping into the mid-70s, and a smattering of rain chances.

We’ll be back tomorrow with a full update!

A smattering of showers, as we await clarity on next week’s possible cold front

We certainly have not been in a true “drought” this summer, but at times, we’ve flirted with some extended dry periods. We seem to be in one of those now. Over the last 60 days, we have seen mixed results in the rainfall department in our area.

Over the last 2 months, some parts of the Houston area have seen near normal rainfall, while others have seen about half of normal. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

Parts of the Houston area, particularly down toward Hobby and Clear Lake have seen near average rainfall over the last two months. But, if you go up into western Montgomery County, some places have seen less the 50-percent of normal rainfall. Most of the Houston area is running drier than normal, and while parts of Texas have seen decent rainfall this week, most of Greater Houston has not. At least many of us will see a little rain in the next couple days, as we try to decipher the potential cold front riddle for next week.

Today

If you’re like me, perhaps you were woken up by thunder at 4:15 or so this morning. There have been a few storms focused mainly on the east and north sides of the city so far today. Places like Baytown, Pasadena, and Galena Park have seen around or above a half-inch of rain from those showers.

The rest of today will be characterized by scattered showers and storms. In trying to pinpoint any sort of rhyme or reason to how they’ll behave today, it would seem that they may try to focus in the Highway 59/I-69 corridor or just south this morning before slowly focusing more north and west as the day wears on.

Some of you won’t see any rain. Others could pick up an inch or two with some heavier downpours possible. Most of us will see slightly cooler weather today. Humidity will remain quite high, however, so don’t expect any sort of comfort in the Houston area. But, hey, at least Galveston finally dropped below 87 degrees this morning. Look for highs in the lower 90s and heat index values again jumping above 100 degrees, albeit somewhat less oppressive than earlier this week.

Weekend

Both weekend days will carry at least a chance of showers or a thunderstorm. As low pressure in the upper atmosphere gradually weakens and slips away, we’ll see a little less support for storms than perhaps we see today. Look for scattered showers both days, but with gradually less coverage. Many areas may not see much rain at all this weekend. Right now, places away from the coast look to have higher odds of rain, with a gradual shift south and west on Sunday.

Rainfall this weekend will total about a quarter to half-inch on average, with some seeing less and others seeing a bit more. (Weather Bell)

Total rainfall when all is said and done will likely average around  a quarter to half-inch of rain for most of the area. Again, some will see less, some a bit more. That’s just the nature of these types of setups. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s this weekend, with our uncomfortably warm overnights continuing.

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