Good morning. After rather boring weather last week, there are two significant weather issues to track this week. First up, as experienced by some parts of the city of Saturday and Sunday, is the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall due to moist air moving in from the Gulf of Mexico. Those rain chances should decline significantly by this weekend as Saharan dust—likely more intense than previous events of this nature—moves into the region.

Monday

The absence of high pressure and influx of moist Gulf of Mexico air will continue today. Like on Sunday, we should see the development of showers near the coast this morning. During the afternoon, these showers and thunderstorms will move inland and should spread out over much of the Houston area.

Most parts of the region that see rain will likely pick up less than one-half inch, but as we saw on Sunday, these storms have the potential to put down 2 to 3 inches of rain pretty quickly over small areas. Storms should weaken, if not go away entirely, as the sun sets. Clouds should help limit temperatures to around 90 degrees. Winds will be about 10 mph from the south, except inside storms when gusts could be substantially stronger.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Our wet and gray weather continues. This time, as moist air continues to stream inland, a storm system will move into Houston from west to east, likely reaching Houston during the afternoon or evening hours. This should enhance storm coverage, and we can expect around a 70 percent chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday as a result. On average, the city of Houston will likely receive 1 to 2 inches of rain, in total, through Wednesday. But again, we’re more concerned about isolated, higher totals due to the moisture available. Highs may struggle to reach 90 degrees given the cloud cover.

See full post

Over the last couple weeks, I’ve turned into a statistics machine, focused on one value: Dewpoints. Not gonna lie, it’s been fun. Anyway, here’s another one for you today: As of yesterday evening, we had amassed 132 hours of dewpoint values at or below 65°F this month. Since 1990, the most hours in the month of June that comfortable was 197 hours in 2006. So, yeah, it’s been kind of great this month, as Junes go. Of course, as Eric alluded to yesterday, we really do need some rain. And we are going to get both the return of humidity and higher end rain chances as we go through the weekend and into next week.

Today

Yesterday was the 5th consecutive day with a high of 94° in Houston. Today could well be the 6th in a row. Expect a day much like yesterday with sunshine and some passing clouds. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re minimal for most of us. Areas south and west of Houston stand the best chance for some slow moving downpours this afternoon.

Saturday & Sunday

Whatever is left of our dry air will work its way off to the east by tomorrow, and we should be hot and humid. Rain chances will inch up with that change, as atmospheric moisture cranks back up closer to what is normal for this time of year.

If Friday carries a 20 percent chance of a shower, Saturday and Sunday would probably carry about a 30 percent chance or even a bit higher. Any showers could be locally heavy this weekend. Look for morning lows in the 70s and afternoon highs in the low- to mid-90s on both days. With higher humidity, expect it to feel more like typical Houston summer, with heat index values back up at or above 100° each afternoon.

Monday through Wednesday

The atmosphere will pick up even more available moisture early next week, which should be enough to allow for numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. For any given location early next week, rain chances probably “only” reach 40 or 50 percent each day, but there will be a pretty good chance that most of us see at least some rain in that timeframe. Any rain could be heavy at times. It will be warm and humid with highs around 90°, give or take a couple degrees and lows in the mid- to upper-70s inland (80° or so at the coast).

See full post

For most of Houston, it’s been two weeks since substantial rain fell across the area. Compounding the problem has been that most days since then have been sunny and hot, allowing for ideal drying of soils. While rains earlier this spring have helped keep Houston out of a drought, the top layer of soils in the region is nonetheless very dry due to recent weather conditions. The map below shows the “percentile” level of moisture in the top 1-inch of soil across Texas. Much of the Houston area is at the 10th percentile or lower, based upon observations by NASA’s GRACE satellite, and a few areas are at 5 percent or lower.

These conditions have not yet sunk deeper into the ground, which would indicate a true drought. But were we to see another week or two of this hot and dry weather, the region would likely enter a drought. Fortunately, it does not appear as though that will happen given the modest pattern change ahead for this weekend.

Thursday

There are no surprises in store with today’s forecast. We can expect hot, humid, and sunny weather, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, light southerly winds, and almost no chance of rain. Lows will be in the mid-70s.

Friday

As high pressure dominates for one more day, we should not expect any substantial changes for Friday’s forecast either. Continued hot and sunny.

See full post

Our hot and sunny weather will continue for a few more days before high pressure moves away, and the pattern begins to—slowly, probably—change this weekend. Any widespread rainfall will likely have to wait until next week, however.

Wednesday

With sinking air, we will see lots of blue skies today. Although a few isolated showers may develop east of the city, rain chances are near zero over Houston, and highs are going to rise into the low to mid-90s. This is the type of pattern that, were we in August, highs would push up near 100 degrees. Winds will be generally light, out of the south at 5 to 10mph. Overnight low temperatures will unlikely fall below the mid-70s.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same.

Saturday

By this weekend, the ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather for more than a week should begin to weaken, and this will allow a more pronounced flow of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. This will eventually lead to development of some clouds and rain showers. But it’s not clear how much of that will happen on Saturday. So for now, expect a partly to mostly sunny day, with highs in low 90s, and perhaps a 20 or 30 percent chance of rain.

See full post