Quieting down this weekend; heating up a bit next week

More storms impacted the region yesterday, mostly on the south and east sides of Houston. Thursday’s star of the show was a supercell over Galveston Bay that produced nearly 70 mph winds on the Texas City levee and multiple waterspouts in the bay.

We see waterspouts fairly regularly around here, but this was one or two levels above a typical one. Really impressive structure and intensity with that storm. Thankfully, this remained over water, though it did come very close to producing a tornado on Galveston Island.

We also do think that this pattern of nasty, over-productive daily thunderstorms has begun to wind down. Houston starts the transition to something very summer-like heading into the weekend.

Today

With the upper level storm that’s been sitting off to our northeast, we’ve been stuck in a pattern with winds aloft out of the northwest, bringing disturbances our way each day that have helped to invigorate our daily storms. That upper level system rockets off to the north and east today, integrated into a passing disturbance over the Great Lakes. Along with that, the amount of atmospheric moisture available is a little lower today, and the forecast of instability on the models is also substantially lower. I think that should be enough to limit just how widespread and strong showers and storms can get this afternoon.

Precipitable water, or roughly how much atmospheric moisture is available is still high enough for some scattered showers today, but it is substantially lower than it has been the last 2 days. (Weather Bell)

So what does it mean? It does mean another chance for showers or a thunderstorm today, however they should be somewhat kinder and gentler than those of the last few days. The highest chances today will be close to the coast or off to our east. That doesn’t mean a shower or storm can’t happen elsewhere; it’s just more likely closer to the sea breeze. We will see a mix of clouds and sun otherwise. Humidity will be low for this time of year, which should allow high temperatures to get to near 90 degrees this afternoon without much trouble.

Saturday & Sunday

We should settle back into a typical summer type pattern of sun, clouds, hot weather, and perhaps a brief passing shower. High pressure starts to flex, which will really drop the rain risks. The best odds look to be mostly toward Matagorda County, Wharton County, or southern Brazoria County. Unlike the last few days where we’ve seen storms blow up, anything this weekend would probably be slow to develop and max out maybe as a brief downpour and likely nothing worse. Humidity will increase a bit further, and we’ll see highs again around 90 degrees, give or take. Saturday and Sunday morning’s lows will be around 70 degrees, a little warmer at the coast and a little cooler farther inland.

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One more day of storms before Houston’s weather settles down

We anticipated some rain, some hail, and damaging winds on Wednesday afternoon and evening in the Houston region, but we did not quite expect what we got. The primary damage came from strong wind gusts of 65mph or higher, which knocked down fences, and trees into power lines and structures. At one point more than 275,000 CenterPoint customers were without power. We expect one more shot of rain and storms today, although not quite as significant, before our weather calms down heading into the weekend.

Thursday

Unfortunately the setup today is similar to Wednesday, in terms of the overall pattern, but should be less intense. We expect generally sedate—and rather pleasant, for late May—weather this morning. However daytime heating will help generate the threat of strong thunderstorms later today, with the threats of wind and hail. Rainfall accumulations should be less for most people, as should areal coverage. Hard to say where the biggest threat lies, but most of the models are suggesting it will be closer to the coast than far inland today. Highs will be in the upper 80s, with sunshine this morning before clouds develop later today.

Severe weather is possible today, but the overall threat is lower. (NOAA)

Friday

A weak front should arrive sometime on Friday morning, bringing with it an end to rain chances. This will usher in something of a drier air mass heading into the weekend, and we should see clearing skies throughout the day. Highs will likely reach 90 degrees.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch & hail risk through Wednesday evening

Storms have exploded northwest of Houston today with numerous reports of large hail, up to as big as golf ball size or larger. As I write, this large hail is possible near Bryan in the Brazos Valley.

Radar shows strong and severe storms in the Brazos Valley racing southeast toward the Houston area this afternoon. (College of DuPage)

As a result of this, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been hoisted for the entire Houston area through 9 PM this evening. The main threat will be between now and 6 PM I think, however. These storms near Bryan-College Station are hauling south and east around 20 to 30 mph, and new storms are trying to blossom out ahead of them.

The main threat from today’s storms is likely to be large hail. Not everyone will see hail, but those that do (most likely along and north of I-10) could see hail to the size of golf balls or even a little larger. The hail threat today is legitimate. A secondary threat will be strong winds, capable of knocking down trees or power lines in spots. A very small tornado threat is there, but it’s not especially high at this time. We’re focused on hail and wind today I think. Heavy rain is also possible from any of these storms.

While the severe threat should fizzle after sunset, we may see additional rounds of showers or even some thunderstorms into later this evening. We’ll update again if things look more significant. But please stay weather aware through this afternoon and evening.

Storms possible today and Thursday before a fine late-May weekend

Good morning. The Houston area is sailing toward fairer weather—this weekend looks hot and sunny—but before that time we’ll face a couple of days with fairly healthy rain and thunderstorm chances. Also, with the school year ending, Matt and I will be convening our final Wednesday Weather discussion on Facebook at 10am CT today. Please join us. I’ll post a link to a YouTube version tomorrow morning if Facebook is not your thing.

Wednesday

Conditions this morning are quite fine for late May, with clear skies and temperatures lower than normal. Conroe got down to a spectacular 60 degrees with the region’s slightly drier air. However the sunshine is unlikely to last for most of Houston. Even though an upper-level level low pressure system is moving away from us, it should help pull an atmospheric disturbance into the area. What we think probably will happen is the development of storms west or northwest of Houston sometime this afternoon.

NOAA severe storm outlook for Wednesday.

These storms will then sag and then (maybe?) weaken as the slide into the city during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. NOAA’s severe weather outlook shows the higher risk to the west of Houston, with the threat of strong winds and hail. Rain accumulations will be less than half an inch for most, but areas under heavy thunderstorms will get more. Until storms develop today expect mostly sunny skies with highs near 90 degrees.

Thursday

A similar pattern could set up Thursday, with partly sunny skies in the morning giving way to the potential for storm development during the afternoon. This may be aided by the passage of a weak front—hard to call it a cold front as there won’t be much cooler air. Rain chances are around 50 percent for the region, with highs again going up to around 90 degrees.

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