Most of the region has dropped into the 40s this morning—so far Bush Intercontinental Airport has fallen to 46. We’re still well off record lows (38 degrees, officially, for Houston) but these temperatures are still a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal. I feel reasonably confident in predicting that Houston will not see temperatures this cold again for six months. However, we will have one more nearly as cold night tonight, so with summer in mind, please do enjoy it.
Wednesday
If you liked Tuesday, Wednesday should be similar after a reinforcing front moved through. Highs likely will reach about 70 degrees with winds subsiding to 5 to 10 mph this afternoon out of the north. Low temperatures tonight will probably drop down to within a couple of degrees of Tuesday night’s lows, with clear skies and light winds.
Thursday morning’s low temperatures will be cool again for Houston. (Pivotal Weather)
Thursday
Another very pleasant spring day for the region. However, as high pressure shifts to the east, winds will swing around to return from the Gulf, and there will be a slight uptick in humidity during the afternoon hours. Highs Thursday will probably reach the mid- to upper 70s under sunny skies, with overnight lows in the 60s.
Low temperatures this morning are running a good 10 degrees below normal for mid-April, with the mid-40s far to the north of Houston, around 50 in the city, and mid-50s along the coast. This cooler weather will last for a few more days before a warmer pattern begins to emerge by Thursday.
Tuesday
Houston remains under the influence of high pressure over much of the United States, allowing for a cool, northerly flow to dominate our weather. As a result we can expect mostly sunny skies, with a March-like high of 70 degrees. Winds will be fairly light, out of the north at about 10 mph. With a secondary front pushing through during the overnight hours, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning likely will be the coldest of the week—perhaps the coldest night for the rest of spring. Lows probably will reach the upper 40s for most of the area.
Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning. (Pivotal Weather)
Wednesday
Another stellar stay, with mostly sunny skies and light winds out of the north. With highs of around 70 degrees, this, too, may be the last “cool” day for quite a while in Houston. We should have one more really chilly night, with low temperatures dropping down to nearly 50 on Thursday morning.
Thursday
Winds turn southeasterly on Thursday, beginning the process of a warmer, more humid onshore flow. This should still be a pretty nice spring-like day, however, with highs in the upper 70s under sunny skies. Lows Thursday night will be warmer, dropping only into the 60s.
Easter Sunday was a rather interesting weather day in Houston that illustrated a couple of different phenomena. The first part of the day was rather humid, with a strong line of storms that passed well to the north of Houston, eventually dragging a front into Houston. Temperatures just before the front passed were in the upper 70s, with dewpoints right behind in the low 70s, making for muggy weather indeed. Then the front pushed through, causing three things to happen.
Dewpoints fell and temperatures spiked on Sunday. (NOAA)
Winds surged out of the west, gusting well into the 30s for most of the area, and the 40s along the coast. This brought in a rapid influx of much drier air. Dewpoints plunged into the 40s. This drier air, in concert with the sun, helped temperatures spike into the low 90s for much of Houston—both Bush Intercontinental (92 degrees) and Hobby Airport (93 degrees) broke records. And then that same dry air allowed temperatures to fall into the 50s this morning. Now we’ll enjoy several days of splendid spring weather.
Monday
Although winds died down overnight, they will pick up again some today, although gusts are unlikely to rise much above 20 mph. We can otherwise expect sunny conditions on Monday with highs of around 70 degrees. It’s going to be quite nice! Lows Monday night will drop into the upper 40s for areas well inland, while remaining in the upper 50s along the coast.
A second front will push through later on Tuesday, and this should keep our dry air, mostly sunny skies, and cool air in place. Expect highs in the low 70s, and lows in the 50s—cooler inland and warmer near the coast. At this point, Wednesday morning may be the coolest of the week.
We just wanted to give a quick update today on the concerns regarding severe weather. We noted yesterday that there was still some uncertainty in details for today. The majority of the area experienced a really, really nice morning. As we march through the afternoon hours, showers or sprinkles are likely to begin developing. Per the National Weather Service and after looking at some near-term model data myself, it’s clear that the Houston area is in a “capped” environment this afternoon. We talk about the cap often, and basically that’s what helps Houston frequently avoid some of the more ballistic severe weather events that occur off to our north and west. So, assuming that the cap is likely to hold through the afternoon, we shouldn’t see much more than a few showers.
The exception to this could be north of I-10, farther from the Gulf and more likely to see the cap erode enough to allow for some heavier showers or storms late this afternoon or evening.
The risk for severe weather today and this evening is highest off to the north and west of most of the Houston metro area. (NOAA)
So, with all that in mind, you can see the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook here. The risk for severe weather generally will go up as you go north and west of the Houston metro area. The highest risk through this evening is probably along or northwest of a line between Crockett, College Station, and La Grange. That’s not to say we couldn’t see severe storms pop before midnight farther south and east; it just doesn’t seem super likely right now. So, keep tuned into the weather, but we aren’t real worried right now.
Overnight
Things do change a bit overnight. We enter into a slightly better and more supportive environment for thunderstorms to develop. But even then, I am still seeing some evidence of “capping” in the models over Houston. I think the general rule of thumb will be that we’ll see scattered showers and storms overnight. Most should be under control and many of us won’t see much of anything. As you go north and west of Houston, the chance that one or two of those storms could become severe increases. I would really watch the area west of San Antonio toward Del Rio closely tonight for potential of some pretty significant storms capable of producing large hail or tornadoes during the late evening and early overnight hours.
Those storms west of San Antonio are likely to congeal into a line of storms and move east along and north of I-10 overnight, arriving in the Houston area sometime around or after sunrise tomorrow morning. The main concern as those pass would be strong, gusty winds, but the chance of an embedded tornado is not zero. Again, the rule will be that the farther north you go, the more likely you see stronger storms. Some areas south of Houston may not even see much of anything overnight and Sunday morning. But the time we should be paying closest attention is probably from 5 or 6 AM through 9 AM or so.
Easter Sunday
Once the showers pass off to our east on Sunday morning, we should see rapid clearing of skies by midday. Winds are going to begin to crank out of the west at 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, especially over the bays and near the coast. Temperatures will surge into the middle or upper-80s as humidity plummets. I wouldn’t rule out 90° tomorrow either for some folks. A windy, hot Easter afternoon.
Sunday afternoon will be windy and hot with plummeting humidity. A few locations could even be a little hotter than this Sunday afternoon. (Pivotal Weather)
The cold air arrives Sunday night, and by Monday morning we’ll be back in the 50s, struggling to get to 70 degrees Monday afternoon. More on that Monday.
Southeast severe weather
A quick PSA from us: While we aren’t expecting a lot of significant severe weather in our area tomorrow morning, there is a decent chance that this will be a very serious severe weather outbreak to our east. From northern Louisiana through much of Mississippi and Alabama into Georgia, and possibly Tennessee and the Carolinas, the potential exists for a significant tornado or severe weather outbreak tomorrow and tomorrow night into Monday morning.
A moderate risk for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes is in place from northern Louisiana across the Southeast for Easter Sunday. (NOAA)
A moderate risk (4 out of 5) is in place for tomorrow’s activity across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This could be upgraded to a high risk tomorrow if confidence increases in a potential tornado outbreak. If you have friends or relatives living east of here in any highlighted yellow, orange, or red area on the map above, please make sure they’re following the weather situation in their local area.
