It’s a cool morning across the Houston region, with temperatures ranging from the mid-40s up north to the upper-50s on Galveston Island and right along the coast. Wednesday night should be even chillier across the region before a warm-up heading into the weekend. We’ll also take a look at the Spring Break forecast for Houston.
Wednesday
Clear, cool, and sunny with a high in the upper 60s. As additional dry and cool air works its way into Houston today, we’ll have a colder night, and I expect low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s for inland areas, and mid-40s in most of the city. Definitely a fireplace night!
Low temperature forecast for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)
Thursday
Another nice, mostly sunny day with highs in the upper 60s. We can’t rule out a few clouds as the onshore flow likely resumes sometime later in the day. Nighttime temperatures will probably be about 10 degrees warmer than on Wednesday—so cool, but not cold.
The cold front has moved off the coast this morning, and rain showers are following suit, with the bulk of the rain likely fully offshore by mid-morning. If they’re not already, skies will be clearing out today bringing some lovely, spring-like weather to the region for the next several days.
Tuesday
Cooler air will move into Houston later today, but highs should reach the lower 70s before it does so. Winds will be modest out of the northwest, and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures tonight to fall to around 40 degrees for far inland areas, and mid-50s along the coast.
Wednesday and Thursday
Very nice weather continues, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s for the most part. Wednesday night/Thursday morning looks to be the coldest of the week, with far inland areas possibly seeing the upper 30s, and most of Houston solidly in the low- to mid-40s. By Thursday night conditions should be about 10 degrees warmer as some clouds are likely to move in during the overnight hours.
Friday
As the onshore flow resumes, we’ll begin to warm up, and humidity levels rise. Skies should still be partly sunny, with highs in the 70s.
Saturday and Sunday
We can’t rule out some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, as a weak disturbance moves in, but I think only 20 or 30 percent of the region will see rain. Expect cloudy skies and highs near 80. Another front should push into the area on Sunday, and right now I’m expecting partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-70s. All in all, the second half of the weekend looks nicer than the start at this point.
Houston made an abrupt transition from “winter” to “spring” in the middle of February, and the second half of the month was abnormally warm. (Note: On the morning of Feb. 15, we published a blog entry titled, “And just like that, winter is pretty much over in Houston.” Just sayin’). Overall, the month of February ended up being 6 degrees (in Houston) to 8 degrees (Galveston) above normal.
Winter ended on Valentine’s Day. (NWS)
As we get deeper into the spring, we’re going to see fewer cold nights. This week a strong front will push overnight low temperatures back into the 40s for the first time since Feb. 13. If you like the colder weather, enjoy this, because we may only get one or two fronts this strong for the rest of the spring season—before we get into summer proper.
Thursday ended up being a beautiful day. It’s almost like we turned a page after February. With all the data from last month in, we can crunch some numbers now and tell you just how cloudy February ended up. Iowa State University’s Iowa Environmental Mesonet has a useful tool that takes every hourly observation and tells you what percentage had overcast conditions reported. Keep in mind that how hourly observations are taken has changed a bit over time, so there are likely inconsistencies from 1970s data to 2018 data. But since at least 1973, no February has been cloudier in Houston. Of all hourly observations last month, 81% had cloud cover reported.
Why, yes, February was a terribly cloudy month, which some of you loved and some of you hated.
The next closest February was 1989, when 65% of the month had cloud cover. What’s more interesting? February 2016 was the least cloudy February since at least 1973. So, of the last three Februaries, we’ve had both extremes recorded. Impressive.
Of the last three Februaries, we’ve experienced both the cloudiest since at least 1973 as well as the sunniest.
You can enlarge either image above by clicking on it. So, that was February. The responses I’ve seen from people have been impressively divided and partisan. Some of you absolutely loved that kind of February. Others were really struggling without sunshine. I fall about 80% of the way into the latter camp, but take what we can get before summer sets in, right?
Either way, we’ve turned the corner. Let’s run down the forecast.
Today & Saturday
We have the antithesis of February’s weather today. Expect ample sunshine and low humidity. We’ll generally top off in the lower or middle 70s this afternoon after a refreshing morning. “Perfect weather” is a very subjective definition, but I have to think today will come close to checking most of the boxes. Overnight lows tonight into Saturday morning could even be a couple degrees cooler than today. Expect some scattered 40s north and lower or middle 50s elsewhere (though milder at the beach).
Saturday looks fine for now. We’ll begin to notice clouds creeping in through the day as onshore flow kicks back in. If you live from about Sugar Land south and west, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few showers or sprinkles pop up in the afternoon tomorrow. But I don’t think it would be anything too problematic. High temperatures Saturday will reach for the lower 70s once again. Most Saturday outdoor plans should be fine.
