Well Houston, we’ve made it to the end of another work week, and it is now day two of August, 2019. The calendar informs me we have 30 more days until we reach September, and at least the potential for a fall cool front. Unfortunately, for at least the next week or 10 days it’s going to feel very much like August outside—especially during the latter half of next week.
Along with August, 100-degree temperatures have come to Texas. (Pivotal Weather)
Friday
If you liked the weather conditions on Thursday, then you’re in luck, because Friday is going to be similar. High temperatures will nudge up into the mid-90s, with partly sunny skies. Light winds will offer no relief from the heat. Humidity will be the usual for Houston in summer.
Beginning around 2pm and running through about 8pm we should see showers pulse up across the Houston area as the sea breeze nudges inland. Perhaps about one-third of the region will see rain from these scattered storms, and amounts will vary from between a few drops and perhaps one-half inch or more. Any storms should wind down this evening, with another warm night for the region on tap.
Welcome to August. You should know the drill by now, Houston. There are basically two weather patterns for this month—high pressure and suffocating heat, or a lack of high pressure and the threat of heavy, tropical rainfall. For the first 10 days of the month, at least, we’re going to lean more toward the former pattern.
Thursday
Houston lies on the periphery of a high pressure system centered mostly over northern Texas and Oklahoma, and this will continue to allow for the development of mostly coastal showers again later today. Rain chances are about 10 percent on the north side of Interstate 10, and perhaps 30 percent closer to the coast. Storms that do develop should not persist for all that long. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny today, with highs in the mid-90s.
West Texas will feel the heat of a high pressure on Friday. (Pivotal Weather)
Friday
Another day like Thursday, although rain chances probably will back off such that almost the entire area will be dry, with highs in the mid-90s and mostly sunny skies. Winds will remain calm to very light, only a few miles per hour out of the east or southeast. The lack of wind will make conditions feel even warmer than they are.
Tomorrow is the first day of August, which means we are now heading into the peak of hurricane season for the Texas coast through the end of September. It’s a marathon, and it’s important for all of us, residents, public officials, and forecasters alike to pace ourselves through the next few weeks. That’s partially why Eric and I are here, to let you know when a system is worth spending time worrying over. And right now, there’s nothing out there we need to be seriously concerned with.
Tropical outlook in a sentence
We are seeing tropical waves begin to move across the Atlantic with a little more aggressiveness now, and while some systems may develop over the next couple weeks, none at this point is a Gulf concern.
Near-term summary
The tropics have come to life in the last week, with several tropical waves that have at least managed to hold together more respectably than anything we’ve seen since hurricane season began.
The satellite image from this morning across the Tropical Atlantic was definitely a bit active. (College of DuPage)
You can see the waves lined up from earlier this morning on the satellite image above. The first one of note is what had been dubbed Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It’s moving into the Bahamas now. It’s not organized in any meaningful capacity, and I believe it has lost the 95L tag, but the NHC gives it about a 10% chance of doing so over the next few days. Because of another trough digging into the Eastern US, this system will likely get pulled north and northeast toward or east of Florida. At this point, I think this one is a non-issue.
Slightly longer-term outlook
The next wave is about two-thirds of the way to the islands from Africa and is not a concern. Behind it, however, is a rather robust wave that I think has a pretty good shot of development.
The NHC is assigning the tropical wave around 30°W longitude a 50% chance of development this weekend as it approaches the Leeward Islands. (NOAA/NHC)
This one will not develop in a day; the hurricane center is giving it a 50 percent chance of development by the weekend just east of the Caribbean islands. Where does it go from there? Read on.
While we expected some storms to develop on Tuesday afternoon, we did not quite anticipate how intense they would be—especially on the southeast side of town where frequent lightning lit the sky, and hail fell from it. Some parts of Friendswood and the Clear Lake area picked up 2 to 3 inches of rain in less than two hours. Meanwhile, parts of northwestern Harris County saw zero rainfall for their troubles. Conditions should be more sedate today, with a drying pattern beginning Thursday through most of the weekend.
Wednesday
Rain showers have developed offshore this morning, and the axis for heavier rainfall appears to be about 50 to 100 miles to the south today. While we expect that some storms will migrate inland later today, they are most likely to be confined to counties immediately along the coast, such as Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers. Areas north of Interstate 10 will probably see 20 percent rain chances, while they increase to 30 to 50 percent along the coast.
This HRRR model snapshot for 2pm CT Wednesday shows the potential for storms to develop near the coast later today. (Weather Bell)
Accumulations should be less than 1 inch for all but a few isolated areas, and storms should pulse downward during the evening hours. Otherwise, expect a warm day, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-90s.
Thursday
This should be a more typical summer day in Houston, with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze, during the afternoon, but nothing too organized. Mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s.
