The West Fork of the San Jacinto River near Humble briefly went into flood last night, but it has since fallen back a bit. Other bayous and rivers are receding or safely below flood stage as well. (NWS)
Calmer weather doesn’t mean totally dry, however. Over the next several days we’ll be dealing with a few disturbances to bring us more rain chances, though at this point none look quite as significant as what we just experienced.
Today
We’ll see a return of some sunshine and heat today, as we start the day partly to mostly sunny. A few showers will be possible south and west of Galveston this morning, down through southern Brazoria and Matagorda Counties. As we heat up, I do expect at least a few more showers and storms to develop elsewhere in the region, but these will be more of the hit and miss variety, with many neighborhoods staying dry today. Expect high temperatures in the lower 90s.
Any storms that do occur today will be capable of briefly heavy rainfall and some gusty winds, as well as lightning. So just be aware of that.
The worst of the rain is now over as of early this afternoon in Houston. Heavier rains have migrated west toward the Sealy area, which has seen 1-3″ of rainfall over the last hour or two.
2:05 PM radar update shows the worst of the rain has exited #Houston. Residual street flooding will continue for several hours, so travel is discouraged. Heavy rains near Sealy are likely causing road flooding out that way also. pic.twitter.com/vJdbcpbTAA
A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect there. Houston’s Flash Flood Warnings will expire soon, but with street flooding likely to continue, travel within the city through the late afternoon is discouraged. We’d advise people to just stay put through late day if possible. Road and weather conditions will improve this evening.
Significant flooding on I-69 and Westpark Tollway interchange in Southwest Houston this road has at least 17’ of water in some places. @JeffLindner1#houwxpic.twitter.com/fhaVJUzLoJ
While weather conditions will generally improve area-wide this afternoon and evening, there will still be a few showers and storms scattered about the region. So I can’t promise the evening will be entirely dry. But it should be mostly cleared out. Still, a sub-optimal July 4th overall.
No change in thinking from earlier this morning regarding tomorrow and into the weekend, as additional showers and storms will be possible each day.
Total rainfall from this storm will top 8″ in parts of Houston, centered just west of downtown.
4-8″ of rain has fallen in much of central Houston, with 1-4″ surrounding the city, though with pockets of higher amounts south and east. (Harris County Flood Control)
Quick mid-morning update for you. Heavy rains on the order of 2-4″ per hour have led to widespread, and in some cases, serious street flooding in the city of Houston and areas southeast and just west. A flash flood warning is in effect for much of the city through Noon, and I suspect it will be extended through early afternoon.
Rainfall of 2-5″ over a good chunk of Houston, much of it in a short time, has led to widespread street flooding in the area. (Harris County Flood Control)
Rain isn’t in much of a hurry to exit the city of Houston. Expect heavy rain over the next 2-3 hours through Midday.
As of 10:38 AM, heavy rain continues around the Houston area. Not in much of a hurry to leave. Street flooding will continue. pic.twitter.com/Moa2E4DXQi
We continue to think the rains will exit this afternoon. But there will be some heartburn between now and then. Our best advice is to just stay put and off the roads for awhile in Houston.
I didn’t anticipate a tropical waterfall on the freeway for my morning commute, if I’m being honest @KPRC2pic.twitter.com/6qjDTbZl2H
Good morning, and happy birthday America! It’s a damp one for many of us this morning, though I imagine some others are asking if it will ever rain at their homes. Let’s walk through the forecast.
Now & this morning
As of 8:15 AM, radar shows pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms gradually pivoting toward Houston from the east. Areas west of the city have seen little rain since yesterday. Eventually some of this will indeed get there.
Areas of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms are mainly impacting the eastern half of the Houston metro area this morning. This should gradually advance west through the morning. (College of DuPage)
So through about midday, expect rain to become more frequent in the area. The heaviest will continue to hug the coast south and east of Houston.
Rain totals to this point have been manageable, though there has been almost 1.5″ of rain in the last hour along Vince Bayou in Pasadena. An urban flood advisory is posted for southeast Harris, Galveston, Chambers, and eastern Brazoria Counties until 11:45 AM, meaning street flooding is likely in spots.
Total rainfall since last night has been minor in most places, with the notable exceptions southeast of the city. (Harris County Flood Control)
As rain slowly winds through the area this morning, be prepared for more pockets of localized street flooding in areas of poor drainage, along frontage roads, etc., especially south and east of Houston, where it has rained more and is raining harder. We aren’t expect anything too significant today, but be aware of street flooding potential and never drive through a flooded road. We’ll keep you posted if things escalate.
Timing the end of the rain
So expect periods of showers, heavy rain, and thunderstorms for much of this morning and early afternoon, especially southeast of Houston. When does it end? Model guidance has slowed things down a bit unfortunately. The good news is that the heaviest, most concentrated rains should be west of the area by about 2-4 PM. There will be isolated, hit or miss downpours still around the region however through 6-8 PM. I still think most evening events should go off without a ton of issues, but you may want to include an umbrella (assuming that’s allowed at your event) with your other items if you’ll be out and about.
Rain summary
So just to sum things up:
Heaviest rains south and east of Houston this morning, with rain rates of 1-3″ per hour possible at times.
Rains will expand north and west and everyone should get at least some rain.
Localized street flooding is likely in spots, again mainly south and east of Houston.
The steadiest rain should taper off this afternoon, but scattered showers will remain in spots (not everywhere) through early evening.
