Houston saw more scattered rather than widespread showers on Monday, and that pattern should more or less hold for most of this week as Houston lies beyond the edge of a high pressure system. This will allow for some areas to see downpours today, and others just sunshine, nearby clouds, and humidity.

Tuesday

Houston will see partly sunny skies today, with highs in the lower 90s. We can expect showers to develop offshore and move inland throughout the day, although again, coverage should be more scattered rather than widespread. Where storms set up, people may see up to about one-half inch of rain fairly quickly, but the storms should move off pretty quickly.

Wednesday and Thursday

Conditions for rainfall become slightly less favorable during the middle of the week, as we may see some capping of the atmosphere. I’d peg rain chances at 20 to 30 percent both of these days, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s.

We continue to get a lot of questions about African dust. Some of the latest computer models suggest the dust will remain mostly at bay from the central and upper Texas coasts this week—although the dust will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico—so that shouldn’t be something we have to worry about too much in terms of allergies.

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Typically in Houston, early August sees high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s with full sunshine as high pressure dominates our weather. However, this week Houston will lie on the periphery of high pressure, and this will allow us to see a healthy chance of rain showers this week along the moderately cooler weather. As ever with forecasting rainfall along the Gulf coast, there is a good deal of uncertainty in timing and amounts. But the bottom line is that for August, this week shouldn’t see suffocating heat.

Monday

High temperatures today should range from about 90 degrees to the low 90s, depending upon cloud cover and the extent of rainfall. I think most of the area will see one or two tenths of an inch of rain today, with some areas seeing higher amounts in heavier storms. Rain chances will be highest during the afternoon and early evening hours, but I don’t expect any significant disruptions during this evening’s commute.

Tuesday

Probably more of the same as Monday, albeit with slightly less coverage and temperatures perhaps a tick or two warmer.

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The forecast looks more or less the same for this weekend. We’ll have a dry (very dry for early August, to be honest) start to the day Friday before rain chances pick up through the weekend. If you live up north this is a really pleasant morning for this time of year, with lows as far down as 62 degrees in Crockett, and 65 in much of Montgomery County. Alas, closer to the coast temperatures are still in the mid- to upper-70s due to the influence of the Gulf of Mexico. I’m not sure what more we can expect as this is the dead of summer for us.

Friday

A mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the mid-90s. We can’t entirely rule out an isolated shower along the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze kicks in, but probably not. As moisture returns, we’re also going to say goodbye to these drier mornings.

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We’ve now reached August, and for Texas the next eight weeks represent the peak of hurricane season. The good news is that several key indicators, including sea surface temperatures and wind shear, both favor below normal activity for the next two months. Specifically, seas are cooler than normal in the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms and hurricanes most commonly form and then move westward toward the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. Additionally, wind shear is forecast to be higher in these regions over the next two months.

The only caveat is that seas in the Gulf of Mexico are expected to remain near or above normal. This suggests the greatest threat this year to the Gulf coast will come from a storm that forms relatively near to the shore, and then move inland. We will, of course, be on the lookout for such systems as they don’t provide much warning. For the next week or so, at least, the tropics appear very likely to remain quiet.

Thursday and Friday

After a relatively cool start on Thursday morning, with lows down to around 70 degrees for the northern half of the metro area, there’s not much to say about the weather for the next two days. Highs are likely in the mid-90s, with mostly sunny skies, and lows in the mid- to upper-70s.

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