Summary: Today will be breezy as more dry air filters into the area, but winds will settle down later this afternoon. We’ll see a couple of cooler days and nights, with low humidity, before the onshore flow returns and our temperatures begin to ramp up into the 80s. Rain chances look low to nil for at least the next week.

Thursday

We’re continuing to see a pronounced breeze from the northwest this morning in the wake of Wednesday’s cool front. With clear skies and appreciably drier air today, highs will reach about 80 degrees. But we’ll cool off nicely tonight as winds subside, with lows dropping into the mid-50s in Houston, and even further for inland areas. This will be a fine, chilly night. I am really going to miss spring when it’s gone.

Friday

Another sunny day with dry air. Highs again will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees. However winds will begin to shift, first from the east, and then the southeast overnight. Initially they’ll be pretty light, but this is the beginnings of the onshore flow. Even so, lows on Friday night should drop into the upper 50s in Houston.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will bring more nice weather, with temperatures of about 80 degrees, and only a few more clouds. We will also start to feel an uptick in humidity, but with dewpoints still in the 50s, it will still feel quite nice. If you’re planning to attend any of the Art Car Parade festivities this weekend, you can be confidence in pleasant weather, albeit with a bit of a southerly breeze. Lows on Saturday night will be warmer, dropping perhaps only into the mid-60s.

Sunday

We’ll still see some sunshine on Sunday, but there will be more clouds mixed in, and humidity will be on the rise. Look for highs in the low- to mid-80s. Sunday night temperatures may not drop below 70 degrees for much of the area.

Next week

Much of next week looks partly to mostly cloudy, with warm days in the mid- to upper-80s and nights in the 70s. It won’t be absolutely sultry, but it will feel more like summer than we’ve felt in awhile. There is a signal for some kind of front by around the end of the week, which should cool us down a bit, and may (or may not) be accompanied by some showers. But that part of the forecast is best written in pencil.

Summary: After early morning thunderstorms, some of which produced severe straight-line winds, calmer weather is moving into Houston. We’ll see mostly sunny weather later this morning, and that will last well into Saturday at least. The next couple of nights will also be chilly—something that will not last much longer this spring.

Overnight storms

Well, did those storms wake anyone else up? The line hit my neighborhood shortly after 4 am CT, and we have significant tree damage as a result. For a few minutes it was pandemonium as a core of very strong winds reached the surface. According to the National Weather Service there were no indications of tornadoes in the Houston metro area. However there were significant winds accompanying the line of storms, with some gusts reaching 60 to 80 mph.

Reports are already rolling in from places as varied as Katy and San Leon of building damage and downed power lines. The good news is that the worst has now passed, and we’ll have several days of much more calm weather to clean up the mess. Additionally, the region picked up some much needed rain with warmer days ahead, and the likelihood of no meaningful precipitation for the next week or so. Most of the area picked up 1 to 3 inches of rain, but a few outliers picked up 4 inches overnight.

Wednesday

As of 6 am CT the strongest line of storms has already reached Beaumont, leaving light rain in its wake in Houston. This rain, too, should end by 7 or 8 am this morning at the latest, and we’ll see northwesterly winds as a front moves into the region. Skies will begin clearing before noon, and afterward we’ll clear out completely. Highs will be in the upper 70s today. The only note of concern is that beginning around noon, and lasting for about 24 hours, we’ll see a fairly stiff north-northwest wind. At times these winds may gust up to 30 or 35 mph. This is the price of drier air in April. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s.

Thursday

Aside from the aforementioned winds, which should start subsiding in the afternoon or early evening, this will be a splendid day. Skies will be sunny, with ample dry air. Highs will reach about 80 degrees. Lows will drop into the low- to mid-50s, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. As I’ve been saying, this is likely to be one of our last truly chilly nights of the spring, so if that’s your jam, I suggest you be jamming.

Friday

Another stellar day. This time, there will be no wind concerns. Skies will be sunny, with highs of around 80 degrees. There will still be plenty of dry air, but with the resumption of an onshore flow that will begin to change. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks fine for outdoor plans. Saturday will be partly to mostly sunny, with a high of around 80 degrees. Humidity will be rising, but it won’t really start to feel humid until Sunday. There will be a few more clouds during the back half of the weekend, but highs will still manage to reach the low- to mid-80s. By Sunday night our lows will only be dropping to around 70 degrees.

Next week

Most of next week looks warm, with highs in the mid-80s perhaps, and a mix of sunshine and clouds. We’ll see a fairly continuous, robust southerly breeze. It will feel humid outside, but certainly not the kind of humidity we’re used to feeling later in the summer months. The next front looks like it may be about 10 days away.

Summary: Much of the area is likely to see a line of intense thunderstorms move through early on Wednesday morning. We’re most concerned about the potential for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

We’ve seen more data today that supports the development of severe storms early on Wednesday morning, including an unstable atmosphere and the kind of shear that promotes strong thunderstorms. There’s more one might say in meteorological terms, but the bottom line is that there is a lot of potential energy in the atmosphere waiting to be released.

That will happen overnight, as a surface front advances across Texas. This will produce a line of storms moving from west to east across the Houston metro area. In terms of timing, I expect the line to move across Houston approximately between 3am and 7am CT. These will be progressive storms, so although the rainfall is likely to be intense, it should pass fairly quickly. Most areas are likely to pick up 1 to 2 inches, but there could be higher isolated totals.

The biggest risk is not from flooding, but rather is likely to come from the threat of damaging straight-line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Not all areas will see these effects, of course. But the majority of the area will see a period of strong winds and intense lighting and thunder. The greatest risk of severe thunderstorms is north of Interstate 10, but the models have been trending toward effects south of that boundary as well, perhaps almost all the way to the coast. In short, be prepared to be awoken tonight.

The majority of our guidance suggests that the storms pass to the east of the metro area by 7am or 8am on Wednesday, hopefully clearing out before the peak of the morning rush hour. But please be aware that some effects, such as low-lying street flooding, may persist. Skies should clear out pretty quickly as the front arrives, with drier air. Thus the rest of Wednesday looks breezy, but with no weather concerns.

Summary: The atmospheric setup looks favorable for severe weather after midnight tonight, especially for the northern half of the Houston metro area. It’s the kind of night when you may well be awoken by thunder and lightning, and heavy rain. After this, a front sweeps through on Wednesday to bring us some of last truly chilly air of the season.

Tuesday

It’s a warm morning, and the Houston-area radar is fairly quiet. We are likely to see some showers today, with the possibility of a few thunderstorms mainly north of Interstate 10. However, it now appears as though the threat of stronger thunderstorms will wait until late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We may see a bit of sunshine later this morning, but skies will turn mostly cloudy this afternoon, and this should help to limit high temperatures to the low 80s. Winds will be gusty from the south-southeast, at times exceeding 30 mph.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning

A surface front associated with an upper-level system will spur the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms overnight. Although the details are not yet entirely clear, it appears as though a mass of storms will congeal to the west of Houston sometime after midnight, and move through the metro area between 2 am and 8 am on Wednesday morning.

The overall environment is favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms, with plenty of atmospheric lift and convective energy. Generally, the potential for severe weather will be higher north of Interstate 10, but the entire metro area is at some risk for storms. What does that mean? It’s the usual mix of threats in Houston: Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. These storms will also produce heavy rainfall, so some locations could quickly pick up 1 to 4 inches of rain, briefly flooding streets.

On our scale of excitable dogs, I expect tonight to be an 8 out of 10, as these storms wake our furry friends.

Wednesday

The worst of the weather should clear the area, from west to east, by around sunrise or shortly afterward. Winds will turn westerly, and I expect clearing skies by late morning. Highs will be in the upper 70s, and later in the day it will turn increasingly breezy. Northwesterly winds will likely gust up to 30 mph or higher through the overnight hours. Lows will drop into the 50s in Houston with the influx of drier air.

Thursday

This will be a lovely spring day. Expect dry air, with highs in the upper 70s. Winds will die down a bit, with some gusts still reaching 20 mph. Thursday night will likely be the coldest of the week, with lows dropping into the low- to mid-50s. This may be the coldest night until late September or October, in fact.

Friday

A sunny, calm day with light winds. Expect highs in the upper 70s, and lows a few degrees warmer than Thursday night. This will be the last day with really dry air.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see a warming trend, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Expect highs in the low 80s on both days, with increasing levels of humidity—although nothing too crazy. Southerly winds will be breezy, with gusts perhaps on the order of 20 or 25 mph. But overall, it will be a mild spring-like weekend in Houston. Plan outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

While the details remain fuzzy, most of next week should be fairly warm and humid. Expect highs in the mid- to possibly upper-80s, with warm nights in the 70s. We’re still going to see some more fronts this season, but they’re no longer going to arrive with any regularity. So it goes in April.