In brief: In today’s post we review how rains on Tuesday evening helped with a drought that has persisted since late fall in our area. We also look ahead to two cooler nights before an exceptional weekend arrives in Houston.

Simmering drought

One of the quiet but persistent stories of the last several months in our region has been the development of a drought, particularly just to the south of the city. At one point about a month ago some of these areas reached ‘extreme’ levels of soil dryness. However the precipitation during the second half of January, in association with the strongest of the Arctic fronts, helped put a dent in things.

Even so, as of last week, large swathes of our region were in a ‘severe’ drought, and most of the rest of the region remained in a ‘moderate’ drought. That’s why I was pleased to see showers on Tuesday, and a line of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday evening, over-perform expectations a little. During the last day or so most of the region picked up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with the higher totals tending to hit the driest areas. It now will not rain for awhile, so yesterday’s showers were a welcome thing for us.

Wednesday

Temperatures are about 50 degrees across the region this morning, and despite sunny skies we’re only going to warm up to about 60 degrees. With a fairly brisk northerly wind, gusting up to 25 mph at times, it’s going to feel chilly outside. Tonight will bring our coldest temperatures for at least the next week, with lows falling to about 40 in urban parts of the area, and upper 30s for outlying areas. Still, I think everyone will remain a little above freezing.

Thursday

This will be a another sunny day, with temperatures in the low 60s. However with only light winds, it will feel ‘warmer’ outside. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the upper 40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks exceptional, with highs in the low- to mid-70s and plenty of sunshine. Only by Sunday afternoon may we start to see the incursion of a few clouds. Overnight lows will generally fall to around 50 degrees, with low humidity. Winds, generally will be light. Seriously, plan to get outdoors.

Next week

Most of next week looks to be pretty much the same day-to-day, with highs in the mid-70s and lows around 60 degrees. We probably will see some partly cloudy days and slight rain chances. But mostly, conditions will be mild. Some sort of front may arrive on Friday or Friday night, but I don’t expect sharply colder weather at this point.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the end of a very cold period of weather in Houston, which will now turn warmer into mid-February. I’m continuing to get excited about conditions for this weekend, which look to be exceptional.

End of very cold weather

Over the last 10 days Houston has experienced sharply cold weather, with seven freezing nights and four nights with low temperatures in the 20s. This undoubtedly will be the coldest spell of the 2025-2026 winter season, and it is also equally clear that we are headed for much milder conditions into at least mid-February. A number of readers will want to know whether the region has recorded its final freeze of the winter, and it’s a valid question. The answer is maybe—but we simply cannot say anything definitive about this in early February. Let’s get to the end of this month and see where we are.

Tuesday

Temperatures have only fallen to about 60 degrees this morning, and the overall airmass is fairly humid. High temperatures today will reach about 70 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. We are going to see breezy southerly winds, with some gusty conditions this afternoon. We will also see some light, scattered showers throughout the day. A more organized (but likely broken) line of showers and thunderstorms may form north of Houston around sunset, and drop down through the city this evening. This will herald the arrival of a front that will move through tonight. Any lingering rains will end before sunrise, with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s late tonight.

Wednesday

A sunny and cooler day, with highs generally in the low 60s and somewhat gusty northerly winds. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas. I’m pretty confident that even typically colder areas like Conroe will remain a few degrees above freezing, however.

Thursday

This will be another sunny day with high temperatures in the low 60s, although winds will be lighter. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the mid-40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This looks to be a gorgeous weekend, with highs ranging from about 70 degrees on Friday to the mid-70s on Sunday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s, with fairly dry air. Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the period, with the possibility of slightly more sky cover by later on Sunday. Regardless, it looks to be a splendid weekend for outdoor activities.

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer, with highs in the 70s and lows around 60 degrees. We’ll probably see a few more clouds and some scattered shower chances, but nothing crazy. Some sort of a front may try to push through ahead of next weekend, but at this point it doesn’t look particularly cold. If you’re wondering how conditions are looking for the “snow bomb” reported by some social mediarologists on or around February 14, here’s the temperature outlook for that period.

That’s right, we can expect above normal temperatures.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the rumors about a “snow bomb” hitting Houston around Valentine’s Day (you will be shocked to learn the rumors are not true). We also discuss our moderating temperatures this week, and what looks to be a splendid weekend ahead.

Gulf coast “snow bomb”

Matt and I began to receive some messages on Saturday morning about the potential for the greater Houston region to receive another Arctic blast around Valentine’s Day. The questions kept coming on Sunday, along the lines of, “rumors are circulating …” about the threat of a major snowfall in the region. We were scratching our heads because there were no valid indications of such an occurrence.

Nevertheless we did a little digging. It was pretty clear from the outset what precipitated the concerns. A single run of the GFS model, the 06z output on Saturday morning (publicly available about 5 am CT, usually) showed a ridiculous amount of snowfall across the Houston area, like two feet. It would set records. Such an event would be historic. But of course there was no real reason to believe a model output that was forecasting an event two weeks away. That is the “silly season” range of model output, and the US-based GFS model is notoriously bad with these kinds of things. And as one might expect, by the very next run, this snowfall was completely gone. Poof!

This, alone, would not have been enough to spark questions. But then my wife stumbled across this post on Facebook later on Saturday morning. Note that it contains a double dose of dumb because the “author” uses the “Houston, we have a problem” cliche.

This nonsense, therefore, came from a deadly duo in today’s day and age when it comes to weather information. First you need a single model run showing a long-range forecast more than 10 days out. Then you need a social mediarologist to spread the hype. It’s a pretty unstoppable combination. But as a consumer there are a couple of things you can do to combat this. First of all, check to see how far out the forecast is. If it’s 10 days or greater, be super wary. If it’s forecasting an extreme event, be super super wary. And if the post uses the #fblifestyle hashtag, you can have a good laugh because this is not a serious person.

Really, all you need to do is check Space City Weather. If there is a credible chance of a major winter storm in Houston, we’ll be talking about the possibility. We promise.

Monday

Temperatures this morning have bottomed out at about 40 degrees, and we are already seeing a southerly flow that will warm us up nicely this afternoon. Expect highs of about 70 degrees. We also will see increasing cloud cover as atmospheric moisture levels ramp up. As a result low temperatures tonight will only briefly drop below 60 degrees.

Tuesday

This will be a mostly cloudy and warm day, with high temperatures generally in the low 70s along with southerly winds. We also will see a chance of light showers during the daytime. By late afternoon, and during the evening hours, a front will approach the area and we may see a line of broken showers and a few thunderstorms. These will persist until around midnight or perhaps a bit later down by the coast. Rains will probably be hit or miss, with some locations picking up a trace of rain and other areas one-half inch or more. Temperatures will start falling after midnight.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be fine, sunny days with highs in the low- to mid-60s and overnight lows in the low- to mid-40s. Wednesday may be a bit breezy.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

If you have outdoor plans scheduled for this weekend, you’re in lucky. We should see mostly sunny skies on Friday and Saturday, with a few clouds returning by Sunday. Highs will be in the low- to mid-70s through the weekend, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. It looks positively gorgeous for any outdoor activities.

Next week

The first half of next week looks to be on the warm-ish side, with highs in the mid-70s perhaps and lows in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. Some kind of front may push through by around Thursday or so, to cool things off a bit, and bring a chance of rain. The front may drop overnight lows into the 40s, or it may not have that much oomph.

So what about the snow chances for Valentine’s Day? Well, perhaps if you’re traveling to Boston for the weekend.

In brief: Another possible hard freeze awaits Houston on Sunday morning with colder air starting once more today. Remember your plants, pets, pipes, and neighbors. However, it does look like we swing back warmer next week for a time before our next chance of rain around midweek.

If you enjoyed the cold temperatures earlier this week, we have good news for you. If you hate the cold, we also have good news for you. Let’s just call it a good news Friday!

Basic cold weather preps again this weekend

We tend to treat the cold with some cheekiness, but it’s obviously always serious business here in Texas when it gets this cold. Saturday night and Sunday morning is the timeframe you want to really take some precautions on the extra sensitive plants, keep the pipes wrapped, and absolutely bring the pets inside.

Today

This morning may see some mixed sun and clouds before we likely go mainly cloudy for the afternoon. There is a chance that we’ll see the back edge of the clouds begin to push through the region by late afternoon and evening, followed by a clear and colder overnight. Highs will be in the 50s today as long as we get some breaks in the clouds or maybe they aren’t super thick. Otherwise, we’ll say upper-40s to low-50s.

Saturday

With clear skies will come colder temperatures tonight. Lows will be in the 30s with a light freeze possible outside the 610 Loop. Temps may dip into the 20s in some far-flung rural areas in Liberty, Walker, northern Waller, Austin, or Colorado Counties. A cold weather advisory has been posted for the entire area for Saturday morning.

Saturday itself should be a blustery but nice winter day with sunshine and highs in the 40s. The wind will make it feel more like the 30s however, even with the sunshine.

Sunday

We would advise cold weather preparations, which most of you already implemented this week anyway to continue on Sunday morning. Lows should drop into the 20s area wide.

A few locations may even dip into the teens in rural or sheltered spots. There is even some chance that a few places in the area check in as cold on Sunday morning than they did at the peak of the cold earlier this week. Coastal areas will drop to near freezing. A freeze watch is in effect.

The rest of Sunday looks glorious with sunshine, lighter winds, and highs in the 50s. Just an absolutely picture-perfect winter day.

Next week

We should continue the warming trend Monday with sunshine and highs in the 60s. A few freezing temps are possible in outlying areas one last time Monday morning, with 30s or low 40s elsewhere. Tuesday should be even warmer with highs near 70 degrees and lows in the 40s and 50s. The forecast looks a smidge trickier later next week with a chance of showers or storms and a cold front either later Tuesday or Wednesday, followed by more seasonably cold air than the unseasonable cold we saw this week to close out the first week of February.