In brief: Today’s post discusses the difference between ‘humidity’ fronts we’ve had so far this fall, and a stronger front that ushers in colder air. We think Houston may get its first stronger front of the season later next week, but cannot yet guarantee this.

Fall, finally (probably)

We have had several fronts this fall, beginning back in late August if you recall. For the most part these have been humidity fronts in the sense that they have knocked out some of the moisture from the atmosphere. But they have not brought large amounts of significantly colder air into the region. (There is no technical definition for this, but let’s go with nights in the 50s in Houston).

We have another ‘humidity’ front in the cards for this weekend. However after that, there is an increasingly strong signal in the global models for a stronger front in the range of 8 to 10 days from now. (Perhaps it is no coincidence that we scheduled Fall Day for October 25, months in advance?) Of course there is no guarantee this will happen as forecasts that far out are far from certain. But the time of year is right, and a pattern change appears likely. So Fall, finally? Probably.

Tuesday and Wednesday

In the meantime Houston will continue to see warmer than normal weather. Highs today will be in the upper 80s (some inland areas probably will hit 90). The upside of this pattern for the next two days will be a drier northeast flow, so humidity levels will be lower. Expect sunny skies and generally light winds. Lows will fall into the upper 60s for central Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Friday and Saturday

Heading into the weekend the onshore flow will become more pronounced, and this should introduce a few more clouds and somewhat higher humidity. This may help to limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-80s. We also will have some low-end (20 percent?) daily chances for light rain. Any showers should be fleeting. Lows will only drop into the 70s for most locations with the more humid air.

Sunday and Monday

On Sunday we should see a front drag into the area. At this point it appears it won’t bring too much cooler air with it, but there is a decent chance of some showers on Saturday night and Sunday. Again, accumulations don’t look overly impressive, perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain, or two for most locations. Not everyone will see rain. Highs on Sunday should be in the upper 80s, with lows dropping into the 60s on Sunday night with drier air. Monday should see highs in the mid-80s or thereabouts, with sunny skies.

The rest of next week

After that point we’ll be in the waiting room for a stronger front. This could arrive as early as Wednesday, or maybe a day or two later. But most our guidance suggests we could see cooler weather (days in the 70s, nights in the 50s, maybe?) toward the end of next week. With some luck we will also get a decent shot of rain with the stronger front. But again, no guarantees at this range I’m afraid.

In brief: In today’s post we provide more information about our forthcoming Fall Day Celebration, to which you’re invited to bring your dogs. We also discuss our not-quite-summer but not-quite-fall weather for this week, and the potential for a front on Sunday to bring showers into the region.

Fall Day Update

We are continuing to work with our partner Reliant to put together a super fun Fall Day event, scheduled for 10 am CT to Noon on October 25th. The venue is Midtown Park, which is also home to the Reliant Dog Park. In the spirit of Halloween (and in recognition of our Excitable Dogs Scale) you are welcome to bring your furry friends in costume. The best costumes may receive a small prize. As a reminder, we have the following planned for the gathering:

• Meet and greet with Space City Weather team
• Free 10th anniversary tote bag giveaway to first 100 visitors
• Chalk wall for guests to share their favorite Houston weather memory
• Free face painting
• Exclusive sale of 10th anniversary t-shirts (see logo below), not available at any other time
• Lawn games
• Art activities for kids
• Coffee and snacks available for purchase
• Reliant tent with giveaways
• Free 360 photo booth

Fall Day is simply a gathering to celebrate the end of summer in Houston—and to enjoy the outdoors and look ahead to cooler days. This year we have reserved the entirety of Midtown Park, 2811 Travis, in Houston. If you can let us know you’re coming by signing up here, it would be great for planning purposes. But it’s not essential. See you there!

Monday

It’s feels pleasantly cool across much of the region this morning, with temperatures generally falling into the 60s. Of course it is cooler in the usual locations, with Conroe dipping into the upper 50s, and areas immediately along the coast reaching the lower 70s. But it definitely feels like early fall out there. We’ll see more of this weather this week as high pressure holds on, leading to sunny skies and moderate humidity levels. Highs on Monday will top out in the upper 80s for most of Houston, with overnight lows in the 60s for most of the region. Rain chances are near zero. Winds from the east may gust up to 15 or 20 mph for a bit this afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Expect more or less the same conditions, with sunny skies, highs near 90 degrees, and drier daytime air. Lows will fall into the mid- to upper-60s for most.

Friday and Saturday

As the ridge of high pressure retreats east, we’ll see the return of slightly more humid weather this weekend. We can expect daytime highs generally in the upper 80s with mostly sunny skies. As atmospheric moisture levels increase we may see a few more clouds, and some daily rain chances in the vicinity of 20 percent.

Sunday

Our crystal ball starts to become more cloudy later on Sunday when a front will be approaching our region. It is quite possible, but not certain, that the front will make it all the way down through the area, and push off the coast. If this happens there is a decent chance of showers with the front, bringing some much needed rain into the area. The timing of all this is uncertain, but if you have outdoor plans for Sunday it is worth keeping one eye on the forecast. As soon we we know anything more definitive I’ll let you know.

Next week

Our weather next week will depend on the extent of the front’s influence. For now I’ll predict highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s, but it comes with a huge dollop of uncertainty. What does seem fairly clear is that the pattern for next week will be more supportive of fall-like fronts.

In brief: Dry weather will continue in the Houston area for the foreseeable future with warm to hot afternoons and somewhat pleasant mornings. Drought is expanding in Houston now, and with that comes some elevated wildfire risk, particularly today north and east of Houston. Thankfully, winds look generally light on land.

Good morning, and if you’ve stepped outside this morning, it really does feel kind of good! Much of the area is seeing temperatures in the 60s this morning.

Tonight should be even a bit cooler. Low humidity will allow for cooler nights and continued warm to hot days heading into next week.

Drought update

A couple notes on that drier air: First off, drought has finally begun to creep into the Houston area.

We’ve seen some drought on the fringes, but that has now begun creeping into the immediate metro. With no rain expected over the next week, this should continue to slowly expand. Thankfully, we were able to bank some rain this summer due to the frequent cadence of daily storms. But that only gets you so far once you get to autumn.

Wildfire risk

Because of this dry, less humid weather and expanding drought, human-caused wildfire risk is somewhat elevated, particularly today and possibly tomorrow. Please continue to use extreme caution outdoors when it comes to anything that could lead to a fire. Thankfully the winds are well below Red Flag Warning criteria, but even still, this is a reminder that wildfires can and have happened here before.

Humidity levels increase enough to suppress wildfire risk after tomorrow. We may get a brief reinforcing “cool” front next week, but aside from that, today should be the most elevated day for fire risk for a bit.

Forecast notes

The forecast is pretty straightforward other than what we’ve discussed above! We expect little to no rain over the next 7 to 10 days. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Morning lows will be in the lower 60s tomorrow, then mid to upper 60s heading into next week. Not a whole lot of risk or wrinkles to this forecast right now. So, expect sunshine, occasional ozone alerts, and continued bad allergy weather. Both the good and the bad in early October in Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the fire risk for Houston posed by the influx of drier air today and Friday in Houston. A weak front will lead to modestly drier air and cooler nights this weekend, and a continued pattern of late-summer weather next week.

A backdoor front arrives

A modest pattern change will set the tone for Houston’s weather for at least the next week. A modest front bringing drier air from the northeast, along with expanding high pressure, will drive dewpoints lower and lead to slightly cooler days and nights. This weekend will see the driest air, but even into next week we are going to see less humidity than Houston has experienced the past several days. Rain chances are basically zero for at least the next seven days. The drier air will come with the increased potential for wildfires, especially on Thursday and Friday as winds from the northeast pick up.

Thursday

Winds have already started to increase from the northeast this morning, and will gust up to 20 mph today. Accordingly, we should see a slow influx of drier air over the next 24 hours or so. Houston will see sunny skies today, and highs generally in the lower 90s. For much of the area, appreciably drier air is unlikely before later tonight, when lows should drop into the upper 60s for most locations.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

These three days will be similar, with highs around 90 degrees, and most of the region experiencing lows in the 60s (urban Houston and coastal areas in the upper 60s, with cooler conditions further inland), and sunny skies. Humidity looks to be lowest on Friday, but moderately drier air will hang around through the weekend.

Next week

With high pressure in place, most of next week will continue to bring sunny skies, with highs around 90 degrees, and nighttime lows in the vicinity of 70 degrees. Humidity will be present, but not at summertime levels. We continue to see some evidence for some kind of front by next weekend, but how strong, and whether it brings meaningful rain, is impossible to say.