In brief: Today’s post discusses why the month of October is often one of Houston’s wettest months of the year, but definitely is not in 2024. We look at our continuing warm daytime temperatures through the weekend, and the possibility of finally seeing some rain next week.

State of play

With high pressure more or less in place for the forecast period, we’re going to see warmer than normal days into early next week. However, the overall flow will be somewhat drier, so we’re going to see dewpoints lower than is customary in Houston. The net effect is that daytime temperatures will warm more rapidly, but nights will be a bit cooler than we might otherwise expect. Unfortunately, the overall atmospheric pattern will remain dry through the weekend as well, continuing our very dry October.

To date, the city has recorded 0.0 inches of precipitation this month. That’s surprising, because October is often one of the wettest months of the season. The historical average is 5.46 inches of rain, which ranks as the second wettest month, behind only June. Why is this month often so wet? We sometimes see late-season influxes influxes of tropical moisture earlier in the month, and often the fronts sweeping down in later October bring storms with them. We have seen none of that this year.

Tuesday

High temperatures today will reach the mid-80s for much of the area, although a few inland parts of Houston may push into the upper 80s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with a light easterly wind. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-60s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the week. High temperatures will depend on your location, ranging from the lower 80s near the coast, with the upper 80s in much of Houston, and pushing 90 degrees further inland. Days will be hot, but with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s, the air will feel modestly drier. Overnight low temperatures drop into the 60s for all but the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

You guessed it, more sunshine. Highs will remain mostly in the upper 80s, with lows in the 60s. The chance of inclement weather is basically zero, so if you have outdoor activities planned, you can feel pretty good about them. Provided you bring sunscreen, of course.

Next week

The sunny pattern continues into Monday, after which time we are likely to see the atmosphere become a bit more disturbed. This should lead to the development of some clouds by Tuesday, and some decent rain chances by Wednesday. I don’t want to over-set expectations, and no one should be expecting a few inches of rainfall to put a dent in our emerging drought. But the very dry pattern should finally begin to break during the second half of next week. The models are all over the place in terms of temperatures, so I don’t have much confidence in the weather for Halloween yet. If pushed, I’d guess that high temperatures are somewhere in the lower-80s, but I feel like that could be a trick.

In brief: The forecast for this week is fairly boring. If you like dynamic change you’re out of luck, as our days for at least the next week will be rather warm, sunny, but with modestly drier air. Nights will be somewhat cool, but definitely not chilly. Although rain chances are essentially zero for the next seven days, but there starts to be some hope for precipitation after that.

A cool spell ends

The second half of last week produced the region’s first run of cooler-than-normal temperatures since early September, with a couple of days with high temperatures in the 70s, and a few nights in the 40s and 50s. This provided a nice preview of fall-like weather, but our daytime highs are headed back into the upper 80s later this week.

However our nights will remain a touch cooler, with slightly drier air from the northeast helping to cool us off into the low- to mid-60s most nights. As for rain, we’ve been talking about how dry things have been, and that is not going to change this week. However, I have some hope for some change in a little more than a week from now.

Monday

High temperatures will reach the mid-80s today, with sunny skies. Winds will generally be from the east, at about 5 to 10 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny, but with dewpoints in the 50s, the air will feel fairly dry. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 60s tonight. Clear skies should continue to prevail.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

There won’t be much change in the weather this week after today. Each day will see mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s near the coast, upper-80s for much of the city, and about 90 degrees for inland areas. The air will be modestly dry, and this will help push highs so warm (90-degree days in late October are no unheard of, but they’re quite rare). Lows will drop into the low- to mid-60s for most locations away from the coast, so nights and evenings will be pleasant.

Saturday and Sunday

Not much changes this weekend. A (very) weak front may push highs back down into the mid-80s, and take a degree or two off nighttime temperatures. But we should continue to see sunny days and cool-ish nights. If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, you can make them with confidence.

Next week

The forecast for next week is uncertain. There are hints of a front in the Monday timeframe, or possibly later in the week, but I don’t have great confidence in any of that happening for sure. However, we may finally see a break from a pattern in which high pressure prevails. Most of our modeling guidance does suggest that Houston may start to see some better rain chances by around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Now that’s nine or ten days into the future, so I would not set out your cisterns just yet. But it does provide some hope after a very dry fall.

In brief: Today’s post assesses the emerging drought across the Houston region, and takes a peek at the winter outlook to see whether we are likely to see relief in the coming weeks and months. We also discuss the fine weather in store for this weekend, and the rather hot conditions expected next week.

Houston enters drought

For the first time since last December, the majority of the Houston area has returned to drought conditions as measured by the US Drought Monitor. For now, most of the region has been classified as a “moderate” drought, but even with shortening days and cooler temperatures, the trend lines are not good.

It’s been a weird year. Houston has fallen into a drought even though the region remains about 10 inches above normal rainfall totals for this year. That’s because we had an exceptionally wet spring and first half of summer, punctuated by Hurricane Beryl in July. But since the beginning of August, and especially since early September, Houston has been almost bone dry. This has coincided with almost uniformly sunny days and warm-to-hot temperatures. As a result, we’ve gone from very wet soils to increasingly dry ones.

So what happens next? The next week looks to remain dry, with only very low rain chances. Maybe the pattern changes after that, but at this point there is no strong signal in the models, and persistence is the most likely outcome. Maybe we’ll see a decent shot of rain around the end of the month, but again this is really at the limit of what our best modeling can predict.

Looking deeper into fall and winter, we see a slowly developing La Niña in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Historically, this favors a drier winter across Texas. The only good thing I can say about a drought during the winter months is that it does not take all that much rain to break it—with shorter days and a lower Sun angle, a little rain goes a long ways. Unfortunately, I don’t even see a little rain in the foreseeable forecast at this time. We’ll continue to look for signs that is changing.

Friday

For my tastes at least, Thursday was one of the very nicest days of the year weather-wise. We’re now going to start warming up, but with dewpoints generally in the upper 50s the air will continue to feel comfortable. At least by Houston standards. High temperatures today will be about 80 degrees, with mostly sunny skies, and easterly winds at perhaps 10 mph with higher gusts. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s for most locations away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see high temperatures in the lower 80s, for the most part, with sunny skies. Low temperatures should continue to drop into the lower 60s, which generally means comfortable if not cool weather. Really, we have no concerns for you if you’re planning any outdoor activities. Just be mindful of the increasing number of burn bans across the region, due to the emerging drought discussed above.

Next week

Pretty much all of next week looks warm, with highs starting out in the mid-80s and ending up in the upper 80s. Some locations probably will hit 90 degrees toward the end of next week. We’ll see a few more clouds in the sky, and rising humidity levels. Unfortunately, the last full week of October is unlikely to feel fall-like at all. The heat may extend into next weekend.

In brief: Temperatures bottomed out at 47 degrees in Houston at Bush Intercontinental Airport this morning. This will be our only cold night with this front, but our conditions should remain pleasant through the weekend before we warm up a fair amount next week. Fall, alas, is not here to stay for the present time.

Thursday morning temperatures

It felt brisk in Houston this morning for the first time in six months. Officially, at Bush Intercontinental Airport, the low reached 47 degrees. Some inland areas reached the lower 40s, and even coastal areas dropped into the upper 50s. It was our region’s coldest night since March 28. If you liked it, well, I’m sorry to say the chilly air will be fleeting. We’re headed back to somewhat warmer conditions starting tomorrow. (This helps explains the lateness of this morning’s post—I took advantage of the cooler weather to enjoy a nice, long run this morning. OK, maybe enjoy is too strong of a word. But at least I survived it).

Thursday

Today will be a fine, fall day with highs generally in the low 70s and sunny skies. Winds will pick up a bit this afternoon, perhaps gusting to 20 mph from the east. Tonight will be warmer than Wednesday night, but the lows in much of Houston should still dip into the upper 50s. The coast will, of course, be warmer.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks quite nice, with high temperatures of around 80 degrees, lows in the 60s, and mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints will be rising with the return of the onshore flow, but our weather won’t exactly be sticky. Daily rain chances are not zero, but they’re probably less than 10 percent, so plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

We’ll start the week in the mid-80s, but will probably see highs reach the upper-80s toward the end of the week. We’re going to be fairly warm, with partly cloudy skies, for much of next week, with borderline high levels of humidity. In contrast to today, next week will definitely not feel particularly fall-like. There are hints of another front by around some time next weekend, with potentially some rain showers, but nothing I’d bet on with any confidence. I know we need rain, and we’ll have more to say about that tomorrow.

Space Happy Hour

This has nothing to do with weather, but the Space Happy Hour people are hosting their inaugural event in Houston later this month at Space Center Houston. This is a gathering of space industry professionals and they typically put on a first-class party. For their first Houston event the Space Happy Hour is featuring me, and a night of VIP networking, drinks, and access to iconic space artifacts. You can find out more information and purchase tickets here, if interested.