In brief: Houston will see spring-like weather for as far as the eye can see, with generally moderate temperatures and plenty of sunshine. The only blemish will be the potential for foggy mornings through Thursday before a weak front ushers some drier air into the region.

Tuesday

We are seeing widespread fog again this morning, and this pattern will repeat itself again on Wednesday morning, so be prepared. However as temperatures rise this morning, the fog will dissipate and we’ll be left with sunny, brilliant skies. High temperatures today will generally reach the lower 70s, with reasonably dry air. Winds will be light, from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. It’s hard to beat this kind of weather, so if you can snatch a few moments outside this afternoon, you should. Lows tonight will drop into the low- to mid-50s, with fog developing again after midnight.

Wednesday

After the fog lifts on Wednesday we’ll see another mostly sunny day, with temperatures a bit warmer, in the upper 70s. Humidity will be a bit higher on Wednesday, but it won’t be unpleasant. Lows will be warmer, generally in the upper 50s. Fog development is likely again on Wednesday night before a cold front slides into the area on Thursday.

Thursday

The front’s arrival is likely to be a non-event aside from the development of some clouds on Thursday morning, possibly into the afternoon hours. While we cannot entirely exclude the possibility of a few light showers, I think the front’s arrival will be dry. Highs will be a bit cooler on Thursday, perhaps around 70 degrees. Lows on Friday night will likely fall to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas. With lower dewpoints, we should finally be rid of the fog for a bit.

Friday

We can expect another sunny, pleasant day with high temperatures in the vicinity of 70 degrees. Lows on Friday night will, again, fall to around 50 degrees, or a tick warmer.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend looks gorgeous. We can expect mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures generally in the low- to mid-70s. Some clouds will start to build during the afternoon and evening hours, and this will herald a slightly warmer night, in the mid- to upper-50s.

Sunday

This will likely be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with highs in the 70s. As the overall flow turns more southerly and the atmosphere more disturbed, we could see the possibility of a few light showers at some point on Sunday or Sunday night or Monday. But this is far from a slam dunk. Sunday night will be warmer, with lows possibly falling only to the lower 60s.

Next week

Our weather turns more humid on Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures likely pushing up toward 80 degrees. Rain chances look to be modest, but non-zero. At some point, possibly on Wednesday, a front will push through to bring temperatures down. Even so, we are probably looking at nighttime lows around 50 degrees after the front, so it will likely be mildly chilly, rather than cold.

In brief: After a very cold period over the last 12 days, much milder weather is on the way for Houston. And with March just around the corner, I’m confident enough in the forecast to predict that the Houston metro area is done with freezes for the remainder of this winter and early spring.

February, a tale of two halves

The first 12 days of this month were incredibly warm in Houston, with several days of record high temperatures. Since then we have been mostly below normal for the region. So far this month, because of the blistering start to February, the average temperature is running about 2.5 degrees above normal.

It may have felt like spring had arrived at the beginning of the month, but if you’ll recall we warned you three weeks ago that winter was not yet over. And so it wasn’t. Well now, my friends, we can pretty confidently say that we’re not going to experience another cold spell like that again this season. From a climatological perspective winter does not end until March 1, but from a practical point of view, winter in Houston appears to be over.

Will it freeze again?

Probably not. In the Houston metro area, historically, there is about a 30 percent chance of a freeze after this point in the year. (It drops to 10 percent by March 18). However, because we can safely say there is not going to be a freeze at least over the next 10 days, I would say we are most likely done with freezes this season. So unless you live north of Conroe or in College Station, I’d feel pretty confident planting your gardens and setting tropical vegetation outside.

Monday

The moderate to dense fog we’re seeing this morning is one sign of warmer temperatures coming. Air temperatures and dewpoints this morning are virtually the same, in the upper-40s across the metro area. The fog will dissipate as temperatures rise, and we’re going toward highs in the upper 60s today. After the fog lifts we’ll see sunny skies, with light winds. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 40s again for most of Houston, with partly cloudy skies. We’ll likely see the development of some additional fog early on Tuesday morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny, pleasant days with high temperatures in the low 70s on Tuesday, and mid- to upper-70s on Wednesday. Both nights will see partly to mostly clear skies, with lows in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday

A weak front arrives to cool us down slightly for the end of the week. Although I think the frontal passage will be dry, I cannot guarantee it. Anyway, we should see partly sunny skies on Thursday in association with the front before sunny skies arrive on Friday. Highs will be around 70 degrees both days, and I expect slightly cooler nights in the upper 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks mild. There should be plenty of sunshine on Saturday, with highs in the low- to mid-70s, and a mild night in the 50s. (It should be nigh on perfect weather for Mardi Gras, so come see us in Galveston). By Sunday we’ll see an increasing chance of rain, but overall chances are probably less than 50 percent. We’ll see.

Next week

The first half of next week could be warmer as we slide into March, possibly with some highs reaching 80 degrees. A modest front likely cools us off by Wednesday or so, but again it may be the kind of thing where lows just drop back to around 50 degrees. We’ll see.

In brief: After a very cold end to this week, Houston begins to warm up this weekend. It’s possible some of this weekend’s rain begins as mixed rain and sleet tonight and Saturday morning, but no accumulation will occur. A decent rain for parts of the area this weekend will lead to quieter, warmer weather and patchy fog next week.

Yesterday ended up being the fourth coldest day of winter on an average temperature basis, with the high and low combining to average about 35 degrees. Our coldest day this winter was back during our January snowstorm, with a daily average of 32.5 degrees. One of the challenges with “daily average” is that if you have a high temperature at midnight, as we did on Wednesday, it doesn’t necessarily capture how the true day was. Whatever the case, it has been a cold finish to the week.

Today

This morning? Not quite as cold.

We were probably helped by some clouds that started to roll in after sunset. That said, it’s still chilly this morning, and with the cloud cover, temperatures will struggle again today. The forecast high is around 40 degrees, and there’s at least some chance we never get there and stay mired in the 30s all day. Bundle up.

Tonight: “Conversational” sleet?

Temperatures won’t go very far tonight; they’ll probably stay in the mid to upper-30s, rising a bit toward sunrise possibly. There is a chance of some light rain or drizzle both tonight and Saturday morning. With the cold, dry air mass still in place, I would not be at all surprised to see some of the precipitation fall as sleet in spots. It won’t accumulate, but this is the kind of setup that would periodically lead to you leaping out of your chair because you “thought you heard pinging outside.” And indeed, you’d look and see some ice pellets falling or a small gathering of them in your gutters. Whatever the case, conversational wintry precip is possible tonight and early on tomorrow, but again no real accumulation will occur.

Rest of Saturday and Sunday

As Saturday progresses, onshore flow continues, and temperatures warm we will see more and more scattered showers develop (no more sleet). A few heavier showers or even some non-severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon, especially south and east of Houston. That continues into tomorrow night and Sunday before the whole thing shifts east of the area by midday Sunday, leading to some gradual clearing.

All told, this should be a good soaking for coastal areas in particular. As you go north and west of the city, rain totals will sharply drop off to under an inch and probably around or under than a half-inch from Conroe through Columbus. Sunday’s high temperatures will bounce back into the 50s.

Monday through Wednesday

We are going to head back to spring next week, with a big warm up Monday (upper-60s to near 7), Tuesday (low to mid-70s), and Wednesday (mid to upper-70s). We should see sunshine return as well in this time. There will probably be some locally dense fog Monday morning, so just be aware of that. And with warm weather after a decent cool spell, you can almost guarantee that sea fog will return to coastal areas for at least a time next week.

Our next cold front looks to arrive sometime Thursday with just a slight cooldown for us. No sign of additional freezing temperatures is showing up in the forecast. But, as it goes, things can always change. We’ll continue to watch.

In brief: Houston is seeing some of its coldest weather of the season this morning, but the good news is that we are going to get no colder than this. Also, some places across the state are much colder this morning. We’ll experience a slow warming trend into the weekend, with a rainy Saturday, before spring arrives next week.

Cold status

As anticipated, much of the Houston region has seen temperatures fall to between 25 and 30 degrees this morning, with only the coast remaining at or just above freezing. Daytime temperatures on Wednesday were colder than expected, hovering around the freezing mark all day, but persistent clouds overnight helped prevent lows from dropping too severely this morning. We have one more freezing night in Houston before nights become a little bit warmer.

Thursday

High pressure continues to reign over the region. And while that means sultry temperatures in the summer here in Houston, during the winter it typically means we’re seeing cold air advection from the north. With mostly cloudy skies this morning we will be slow to warm, although most of the region should reach above freezing by around noon today. Highs will generally be in the mid- to upper-30s for most, although some far inland areas may only briefly reach above-freezing this afternoon. At least winds will be lessening, as gusts finally die down later today. Expect another cold night, with temperatures 1 to 3 degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

This will be a mostly cloudy and cold day, with highs in the upper 30s to 40 degrees. Temperatures won’t fall much on Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s.

Saturday

I’m afraid the first half of the weekend looks rather dreary. Temperatures on Saturday should, at least, push into the mid- to upper-40s. But we’re going to see continued cloudy skies, and a coastal low is going to bring a healthy chance of rain into the area. The most likely time for rain will be Saturday after noon, Saturday night, and Sunday morning. In terms of accumulations, most areas are looking at 0.5 to 1.5 inch. So I don’t anticipate severe storms, just some cold and unpleasant rain. Lows on Saturday night should fall into the low- to mid-40s for most locations.

Sunday

After a potentially wet start, Sunday may see a few breaks in the clouds during the later afternoon hours. Expect high temperatures in the mid- to upper-50s, with lows on Sunday night in the 40s.

Next week

Sunshine arrives on Monday, and we should see a pleasant week with highs in the 70s, generally, and lows in the 50s. Just as we’re pushing up toward 80 degrees mid-week, a weak front may arrive by Wednesday or so to cool us down slightly. But it’s all going to feel fairly spring-like, and the sunshine should be grand. Early next week we’ll take a look at whether we’re done with freezes in Houston for this year, but I think the answer is that we likely are after this week.