Chance of rain on Halloween as Houston warms significantly this week

Did you enjoy our brief romp with winter? Houston smashed some records with a low temperature of 35 degrees on Sunday at Bush Intercontinental Airport (breaking a mark of 39 degrees), and a low of 39 degrees at Hobby Airport (breaking a mark of 42 degrees). Perhaps hell is freezing over because the Houston Astros are about to win the World Series? Anyway, this cold spell offered a taste of winter, but after another pleasant day Monday we’re going to settle back into a warmer pattern for awhile.

Today

Southerly winds have already returned, and while this morning saw clear and cool conditions in the low 50s, we’ll warm quickly  into the upper 70s under mostly sunny skies.

Halloween

Tuesday will offer mostly treats in terms of weather—but potentially a few tricks as well. We’re going to see a weak cool front move into the Houston area and then essentially stall at or near the coast. Effectively, this means we are going to see some increasing rain chances later on Tuesday, especially to the west and southwest of the Houston metro area.

Temperatures during trick-or-treating will be pleasant. But what of the our rain chances? (Weather Bell)

While some light rain is possible in Houston during the afternoon and evening hours, I’m hopeful that some or most of the region will remain dry. However, rain chances will improve significantly during the overnight hours. Temperatures during trick-or-treating will likely be in the upper 60s to lower 70 degrees.

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Houston beyond Hurricane Harvey

On Tuesday evening, just as the Astros took the field for game one in Los Angeles, I had the pleasure of attending a Baker Institute event at Rice University featuring Dr. Jim Blackburn. “Beyond Hurricane Harvey” was a discussion and Q&A with Blackburn, who is the co-director of the Severe Storms Prevention, Education, and Evacuation from Disaster (SSPEED) Center at Rice. During Tuesday’s event, Blackburn basically laid out his vision for how we need to discuss and tackle Houston’s flooding problem from this point forward. Many of these ideas were incorporated by Harris County Judge Ed Emmett in the plan that he unveiled on Wednesday. Nevertheless, here is a summary  and some of my takeaways from Tuesday’s event.

Tuesday night’s event was held at the Rice University Baker Institute by their young professionals group. (Matt Lanza)

As a quick note, Blackburn has published two papers in the wake of Harvey. Much of what he covered Tuesday night is covered in these papers too. The first addresses initial policy ideas after Harvey. The second describes the public/private non-profit entity described below. Both are very informative and useful reads, and I would encourage our readers to get involved in this. As I said in my own Harvey post-mortem: It is now time for a new generation of Houstonians to work out new solutions to this complex problem.

Turning point: Blackburn opened by calling Harvey a turning point in Houston’s history. This is basically our moment to get this right. We all know we live in a city that is prone to flooding. We can never stop that from happening, but we can manage it in ways that will reduce the financial and human toll that has accompanied recent flooding events. Houston has an opportunity now to become the world leaders at weather and climate resiliency. While showing a chart of hurricane tracks impacting the Texas coast, Blackburn related the story of Indianola and Galveston. Indianola was wiped out by a hurricane in 1886, and we know the story of Galveston after 1900. Blackburn believes that Houston’s future as a leading American and global city may hinge on what we are able to accomplish over the next several months. If we bungle the response to this disaster, we could be looking at a steady economic decline in our region.

Blackburn referred to this situation as a new “Jesse Jones moment” for Houston. Speed couldn’t be emphasized enough. We need to get these solutions moving now, while the wounds from Harvey (and previous events) are still fresh and raw. The longer we wait, the less likely we’ll accomplish meaningful action. Amusingly, Blackburn shared the “Off the Charts” report published by Harris County Flood Control after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.

We were in the same boat 16 years ago, but we still have a long way to go. (HCFCD)

Here we are again. We need a vision, a plan (we seem to have those moving forward), and now we need to mobilize the public and persuade our elected leaders to take action immediately. Blackburn was asked whether Houston’s infamous lack of zoning contributed to the problems from Harvey. He made the point that it was not a major cause, but what is a problem is the typical, almost “closed door” nature of Harris County government. Lots of items get addressed really quickly without much discussion at various county meetings. The population of this area is also somewhat agnostic toward government participation. We’re not engaged enough. For problems as big as this, everyone needs to be firing on all cylinders, taking politicians to task, asking questions, demanding transparency. It’s easy to be cynical, but in this situation, it’s important not to be.

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Record low watch for Houston continues

The record low watch continues this weekend for Houston. We’ll go into more detail on that below, but what a change the last couple weeks have been. The weather this time of year can get a little chaotic in the temperature department, and we’ll certainly see more of that present itself going forward. Let’s jump in.

Today & Weekend

As of 6:30, the front is just pushing (or about to push) through La Grange, College Station, and Madisonville north and west of Houston.

Using a map of dewpoints, here’s a rough outline of where the front is located as of 6:30 AM. Dewpoints in the 30s and 40s indicate much cooler and drier air on the way. (NWS)

The front should work from northwest to southeast across the Houston area between about 8 AM and Noon. A brief shower or two is possible, but I wouldn’t really expect it, as it just appears that this front lacks much punch in that department. The best chance for showers will be east of I-45 and closer to Louisiana, where the front can tap into a little more instability and moisture. Temperatures today will stay generally steady in the 60s before finally giving in and dropping into the 50s late.

We might see some lingering clouds or a shower at the coast this evening, but then things should clear out. Behind the front today, it’ll be brisk. Expect north winds of 15-20 mph at times this afternoon and tonight (a bit stronger at the coast). Temps will tumble tonight into the lower 40s on average. It will be warmer at the coast and cooler (30s perhaps) in pockets north and west of Houston.

Saturday will be crisp. Expect highs generally in the lower 60s, but it will be sunny and beautiful with a gradually diminishing wind. Saturday night into Sunday morning is our shot at a record low. Sunday morning’s record low is the last “low hanging fruit” of the year. The current record low of 39° (set in 1910) is the “warmest” record low in Houston until April. Our record lows seem to hit an inflection point right around October 30th and take a step down.

Houston’s list of record lows takes a steady step colder after Sunday. (NOAA/NWS)

So we’re going to see our first strong autumn/early winter air mass basically right on cue. Expect upper 30s north, low 40s south on Sunday morning. There will be pockets of mid 30s north and west of Houston, and there may even be low 30s for the typical cold spots like Conroe or Huntsville back into the Brazos Valley.

NWS forecast lows for Sunday morning are quite chilly! (NWS/Weather Bell)

After a cold start, Sunday looks delightful, with sunshine, calmer winds, and temperatures topping off in the upper 60s.

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Harris County Judge releases 15-point plan to address Houston flooding

Nearly two months have passed since Hurricane Harvey drowned the upper Texas coast. There have been numerous public hearings, state meetings, and some squabbling about who should pay for cleanup, reconstruction, and mitigation.

But for the first time, this week, Harris County Judge Ed Emmett stepped forward with some concrete ideas about how the make future flooding events like Harvey less worse. “Now is not the time for a piecemeal approach,” he said Wednesday, during a news conference, in which he released a 15-point plan. “The sense of urgency created by Harvey will fade, so we must quickly commit ourselves to a comprehensive plan to redefine Harris County and the surrounding region as a global model for living and working in a flood-prone area.”

Texas Army National Guard soldiers move through flooded Houston on Monday, August 28. (US Army photo)

We have included each of Emmett’s 15 proposals below to spur the community discussion. There are a lot of good ideas here. One of the things that makes the most sense, from our perspective, is the creation of a regional floodwater management organization that would consist of representatives from area cities, counties, and other government organizations. Such a body could take a holistic approach to flooding, which is truly a regional problem, identify problems, find solutions, and then present them with a unified voice from the greater Houston community.

The biggest problem is that enacting a lot of these ideas will require cooperation between city, county, state, and federal officials. The political environment for such cooperation seems poor at this time, but Emmett is correct that if the region does not act now, Harvey will fade into memory and Houston will remain as vulnerable as ever to flooding. Ultimately, making a lot of these changes will require pressure from citizens, civic organizations, non-profits, and those who take the long view that Houston should be a great, livable city for decades and centuries to come.

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