Another front without much fanfare for Houston

We’ve had several cold fronts pass through Houston this autumn. Very few of them have carried much punch as they passed through. Tomorrow’s front will behave similarly. As a result, precipitation (outside of a few exceptions) has been pretty minimal this fall. We finished September nearly three inches below normal officially at Bush Airport. October finished a bit over two inches below normal. And through the first half of November, we’re running just under two inches below normal.

Over the last 60 days, rainfall has averaged about 50-75% of normal in most of Southeast Texas. (NOAA)

In fact, much of Texas has been dry. And yes, we can start using the “D” word a bit more liberally in Texas. That word is drought. With precipitation over the next two weeks likely to average below normal in most of Texas, and with drought areas expanding, we’re likely to see talk of drought show up a bit more often.

Harvey obviously delivered enough rain to hold drought back in our area for a good while. But with Harvey becoming a distant memory in the water system, and Texas’s historical reputation of going from one extreme to the other, we can start discussing this potential. Areas in interior Texas less impacted by Harvey are already there.

So with that setup, let’s dive into the forecast.

Today

There’s not much in the way of fog to start today, thanks in part to more cloud cover. So expect a pretty benign Friday: Clouds and some sun. We’ll warm up into the low 80s in most spots this afternoon away from the coast.

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Three more warm days until fall returns to Houston

Houston faces three more warm days before a cool front knocks us out of this warm weather pattern and into much more fall-like conditions for most of next week. The forecast for Thanksgiving remains about as clear as gravy.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll see some possibly foggy mornings each day, and then warm days with highs of around 80 degrees. We can’t rule out some scattered, light rain on Thursday afternoon, but chances of this are pretty small. Nights will be muggy, with lows only falling into the upper 60s. On Friday southerly winds could be fairly gusty across the area.

Not much, if any, rainfall is expected between now and Tuesday morning. (NOAA)

Saturday

A cold front is coming on Saturday, but the day will start out warm, and highs will probably reach about 80 degrees for most of the area. I’d peg the front’s arrival at sometime in the afternoon for most of the city, with it perhaps moving off the coast around sunset. Some scattered showers are possible with the front’s passage, but any accumulations should be slight. A northerly wind will bring immediately cooler and drier air into the region and overnight lows should fall to around 50 degrees.

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A front reaches Houston on Saturday, cooler for Thanksgiving week

Perhaps you’re traveling out of town via an airport. Perhaps you’re having 30 family members over to your home. Perhaps you just want to toss the football around in the back yard, as is customary on Thanksgiving. Whatever the circumstance, weather matters during Thanksgiving week. And for now, it looks pretty festive for Houston—rather than an 80-degree sweat fest that we’ve had in some recent years.

Texas is warm this morning, and will remain so until the weekend when a front moves through. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday through Friday

Houston’s weather will gradually warm up to end the work week, with overnight lows rising from about 60 degrees in the city on Wednesday morning to the upper 60s by Saturday morning. Mornings will see at least some patchy fog due to muggy air and near dead calm winds. High temperatures will remain pegged at about 80 degrees, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Can’t entirely rule out a few light showers later this week, but I’d bet heavily against rain for most people.

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Mild this week in Houston, with a healthy front this weekend

Good morning. Houston will experience a bit of a warming trend before a cold front shakes things up this weekend. After that, conditions should feel more fall like for the remainder of November.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Drier, easterly winds will give way to a more southerly flow tonight, and that will allow for humidity levels to rise Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Aside from that, conditions won’t change too much, with highs near 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies, and overnight lows in the low 60s for inland areas, and mid- to upper-60s along the coast.

In this temperature anomaly plot from the GFS, the mercury creeps up well above normal before a front on Saturday. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

These will be the warmest days of the week, as high temperatures climb into the low 80s, and overnight lows reach near 70 degrees along the coast. We’ll see some low rain chances, but any precipitation that falls will be slight, and short-lived.

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