It has been a partly to mostly sunny day for much of the Houston with a few rain showers developing across the city. But the second half of the weekend and into Monday looks notably wetter.
Saturday night
For tonight heavy rain will remain to the west of Houston, most concentrated over the Hill Country. A stalling cold front along with ample moisture will set the table for potentially flooding rains in the San Antonio and Austin areas. Forecast models support the idea of some areas receiving in excess of 10 inches of rain between Saturday morning and Sunday night.
Excessive rainfall outlook through 7am CT on Sunday. (NOAA)
We are firmly in what I like to call a rinse and repeat cycle here in Houston. Showers and storms have been resilient much of this week, and with that in mind, I’d expect we see another round of storms today.
While not unprecedented, our current “cool” streak continues to lengthen. Yesterday marked five straight days below 90°, which hasn’t happened within August since 2001. If we manage to avoid 90° again today, it will be the first time in 20 years that we’ve accomplished six in a row in August.
Today
Radar is quiet this morning, with just a couple showers at the coast, perhaps even fewer than yesterday. Similar to Thursday though, with the sea breeze spreading inland from late morning into early afternoon, showers and storms should fire up over a good chunk of the area. We may see locally heavy rain as this happens. Also like yesterday, we could see locally high water on some area streets, especially those typically prone to flooding. It shouldn’t take a lot of rain to accomplish this. Storms will keep moving though and it shouldn’t rain in any one place for too terribly long. All in all, similar to Thursday, but perhaps a bit less coverage/intensity than we saw yesterday.
Forecast radar from the HRRR today shows scattered afternoon showers & storms, though perhaps a bit less coverage than we saw Thursday. (Weather Bell)
Temperatures today will be contingent on how quickly the rain arrives. We still managed 88° yesterday despite a good deal of cloud cover in the morning, but with rain arriving just after Noon, temperatures were cut down. So upper 80s to around 90° is reasonable for today. If rain arrives a little later, we could break our 90-free streak today.
With rain and storms daily, Houston has held up pretty well, particularly considering the terrible situation in Louisiana. Yes, there have been minor bouts of flooding in parts of the area, but the rain has moved quickly enough and sporadically enough for us to escape major problems to this point. And for the first morning this week, we don’t have any Flash Flood Watches in the area to tell you about.
7 day rainfall totals show a widespread 3-5″, areas of 5-8″, and maxes near Crosby of over 10″ and near Cypress of over 1 foot! (Harris County Flood Control)
We’re beginning to see this pattern finally erode a bit.
Today & Friday
The transition from this widespread daily thunderstorm pattern to something we’re more familiar with in summer in summer is underway: Morning coastal showers spreading inland with the sea breeze off the Gulf in the afternoon. You can see a radar forecast for today below:
HRRR model forecast radar for today shows storms spreading inland during the afternoon. (Weather Bell)
Basically, I would expect gradually fewer showers today and tomorrow compared to how the earlier part of this week has gone. That said, we’re still probably looking at a slightly stormier than usual pattern for August, just not as busy as it has been for much of the week.
Through the first 12 days of this month Houston had an average high temperature of 99 degrees, including five consecutive days with highs of 100 degrees or above. Overnight lows were sticky, too. We all felt the sizzle. But as high pressure moved out, and clouds and rain moved in, daytime temperatures have plummeted. During the last three days Houston has enjoyed high temperatures averaging 85.5 degrees, and morning lows of 75 degrees.
Of course the counterpart to these delightfully “cool” temperatures for August has been the potential for flooding, and it’s not going away quite yet I’m afraid. Houston remains under a flash flood watch through at least 7pm Wednesday evening.
As rains moved in, temperatures went down. (National Weather Service)
