Summer continues, with not a whole lot of change in the forecast through the weekend. As has been the case for much of the week, a moderately strong ridge of high pressure will continue to assert some control over our weather to bring August-like conditions to the area.
Thursday through Sunday
You know the drill by now—partly to mostly sunny days, high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s with humidity, and lows in the upper 70s. A few (very few, most likely) areas will see some showers during the late morning and afternoon hours, but for the most part we should be dry. This is classic August weather for Houston.
Monday and Tuesday
By late Sunday or Monday, an upper-level low pressure system will begin to influence our weather as well, which should bring some changes. Most notably, we’ll see a few more clouds (we discuss eclipse concerns below), some better rain chances, and lower high temperatures, perhaps in the low 90s. By no means are we looking at widespread, heavy rainfall, but 30 to 40 percent of the region should see a couple of tenths of an inch of rainfall on both days. Highs should jump back up into the mid-90s by the second half of next week.
Houston remains in a typical August-like pattern, with high pressure largely in control of our weather, but not dominating. Were a strong high overhead we’d be having temperatures around 100 degrees, with no chance of rain. But since the high isn’t dominant, there’s a chance for some scattered rain showers each day. Mind you, most of Houston isn’t going to see rain through Saturday, but there is at least a chance. Since the forecast is rather dull we’ll also talk about the tropics and eclipse weather today.
Wednesday to Saturday
See above. Hot, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Warm nights. Mostly sunny. A few showers will develop during the afternoon hours.
Sunday to Tuesday
Pressures fall a bit, allowing for slightly better rain chances, perhaps in the 30 to 40 percent range each day, with the higher end chances for the eastern half of the area. These probably won’t be real soakers—likely some areas will see a couple of tenths of an inch of rain, while most of the area won’t see that much, if any rain. Highs may pull back to the mid-90s. That’s still hot, but we’ve certainly had hotter Augusts.
We have reached the real dog days of summer. The middle of August almost always feels like this, with low temperatures hovering around 80 degrees for most of Houston, and highs in the upper 90s. Afternoon temperatures have reached 96 or 97 degrees the last five days in Houston, and unfortunately that pattern seems unlikely to change significantly for most of the rest of the month.
On Monday a reader wrote in and asked, I know you don’t have a crystal ball and are not clairvoyant, but I’m sooooooo over this summer I need a little encouragement. What does our Fall/ Winter have in store for us? I don’t have much confidence in seasonal forecasts, but I do know this. August is already half over. Already, days are an hour shorter than they were in June. Fall is not here yet, but it also isn’t that far around the corner. We can reasonably begin to expect some relief in about four weeks, or so. Until then—heat.
Length of the day in Houston. White line shows where we are today. (Time and Date)
Tuesday and Wednesday
While pressures are high across the region, they’re not entirely stifling. Some parts of Houston, especially east of Interstate 45, have an outside shot at some showers later this afternoon. Most of Houston will not see rain, but at least there’s a chance. Otherwise, highs will remain in the mid- to upper-90s.
Locally, the weather this week will be pretty standard for mid-August. It’s going to be hot. There will be a few opportunities for storms, but the majority of the week will see the majority of Southeast Texas dry. More on this in a second. First, let’s talk solar eclipse.
Eclipse outlook
We’re one week from one of the most talked about astronomical events in the U.S. in a long time. It’s certainly exciting, and understandably, there’s demand for eclipse weather forecasts. So, we’ll be happy to offer up our opinions here. First, locally, I think we look pretty standard in terms of thunderstorm chances. Odds are it will be partly to mostly sunny with just a few developing showers, mainly south and east of downtown Houston.
The initial outlook for eclipse viewing in Houston looks pretty typical for mid to late August: Sun, some passing clouds, and developing showers southeast of town.
The good news is that, assuming standard summer weather here in Houston, you probably won’t have to drive very far to get out of a downpour and into sunshine. All in all, I’m optimistic on our weather for the eclipse right now. We’ll keep you posted.
Some of you may be considering traveling into the path of totality of the eclipse, which stretches from Oregon into Wyoming across Missouri and offshore from South Carolina. We take a crack at things here, using some major cities along the path (Hopkinsville and Carbondale are the approximate locations of the greatest eclipse and longest duration of the eclipse respectively).
It’s a bit early to pin down exactly how things will look, but initially, the greatest chance of disappointment may be on the eastern edge of the eclipse path over the U.S., in South Carolina. This can certainly change, however.
Based on a brief look at the weather models for next Monday around the time of the eclipse, the best chance of rain may be in the Carolinas. Models disagree further west (including Nashville, Hopkinsville, Carbondale, and St. Louis), with a chance of rain showers potentially. For now, I’d spin it optimistically. I don’t see any reason to be overly nervous in any given place. I am watching a band of cloud cover showing up on some models from northern Colorado into Wyoming and perhaps the Plains (think Lincoln, NE & Kansas City). Again, it’s quite early for a precise cloud cover forecast, but we wanted to offer up an early opinion for you. Look for further updates this week.
