Matt: My Harvey story, our call to action for Houston

Harvey was an incredibly emotional forecast that challenged many of us in ways we’ve never been challenged before. In writing this personal retrospective I sought a way to process this experience and convey the emotion of the last couple weeks in words. So this is my story, my call to action, my open letter to the city I’ve come to love.

I grew up in New Jersey and became fascinated by weather, most likely at the age of three. The memories are broken up and fuzzy now, but they’re firmly in my mind. In 1985, Hurricane Gloria came barreling up the Eastern Seaboard, forcing my family to evacuate my grandmother from her home in Atlantic City. My dad taped up windows around our house about four miles inland from the shore. I remember going to the coast after dark as the storm pulled away to (perhaps my parents would now admit, unwisely) “assess damage” to the beach. Gloria’s impacts on the Jersey Shore were modest. My grandmother’s house was unscathed, and life got back to normal in short order. Somewhere along the line Gloria ignited a passion for meteorology. It started with a hurricane in New Jersey, and as I sit here 32 years later, I openly wonder if a rain-laden hurricane in Texas is what extinguishes it.

Boardwalk damage in Ocean City, New Jersey from Hurricane Gloria. (Wikipedia)

I’ve dealt with a few stressful forecasts in my career. There have been blizzards when I worked in Upstate New York. Hurricane Irene in 2011 had me considering telling my parents to evacuate the same home we shored up for Gloria. In 2012 came Sandy. I had many friends and family members back in Jersey and New York directly impacted by that storm. The lead-up to that storm was one of the most stressful I’ve dealt with, though now a fading second to Harvey. At the time I worked as a meteorologist for the energy trading arm of Deutsche Bank here in Houston. My boss was on a required two week leave, and the onus fell on me to prepare our New York City office for Sandy’s impacts. I remember conference calls, and giving a worst-case scenario forecast I didn’t really even grasp. Sandy was the storm that, as a passionate weather geek, I drew on a map as a kid that wasn’t ever supposed to happen. It was difficult to see the Jersey Shore, my homeland, so ravaged. But my life had brought me to Houston by then, so there was a buffer there to reduce the storm’s emotional impact. But it remained difficult to watch.

Life had indeed brought me and my wife to Houston. We moved here in 2012 after stops in Jacksonville, Southern California, and Upstate New York. Maybe it’s because I somehow grew up deep in Philadelphia Eagles territory as a Warren Moon and Houston Oilers fan (not kidding here at all, I have the 1990s-era Starter jacket to prove it), but I have always had an affinity for Houston. I had no family here, and the first time I visited was on a job interview in 2008. As a broadcast meteorologist in Upstate New York, I had decided that the route I wanted to steer my career toward involved the energy industry. After discussing it over a long period of time with my wife (then fiancée), we decided that Houston would be our goal. It took a few more years, but we arrived in 2012, a year or so after my wife’s brother moved here. My wife’s parents wouldn’t be far behind. Houston didn’t become a home. It became our home.

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Cold front coming, and Hurricane Irma reaches Cat. 5 status

A cold front remains on track to reach Houston on Wednesday, arriving a couple of weeks early to the region, and bringing some genuinely fall-like weather to the upper Texas coast. I’ll also discuss Hurricane Irma, because the storm has reached Category 5 status and almost certainly will have some devastating effects in the United States. We remain pretty confident the storm won’t have major effects for Texas, however.

Tuesday

We’ll still be pretty warm today, with highs in the low 90s across Houston, but for early September this is still decent weather. Houston could see some scattered showers later this afternoon, but for the most part we should be rain-free.

Wednesday

Cold front day! It’s almost like a holiday here in Houston. Moisture levels will increase a bit before the front moves through on Wednesday, most likely during the late morning or early afternoon hours. Some scattered showers are possible with the front—a few isolated areas could see as much as half an inch of rain—but for the most part this should be a breezy passage rather than one with thunder and lightning. Humidity should fall off a cliff after the front moves through, making for a pleasant evening.

Forecast map showing dewpoint temperatures on Wednesday morning. The front is almost to Houston. (Weather Bell)

Thursday through Sunday

We’ll have some great September weather after the front comes through, with highs generally in the mid- to upper-80s, overnight lows in the 60s (perhaps upper 50s for some inland areas and closer to 70 degrees along the coast). The drier air and full sunshine will feel fine.

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Labor Day Update: Irma, the Gulf, and more

Good morning. I hope everyone is finding some peace on Labor Day morning. Our short-term forecast remains more or less locked in for the Houston area, with warm-ish days through Wednesday (highs in the low 90s) before a cold front moves through and brings absolutely splendid weather for the second half of this week. We may see some decent rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the approaching front, but even so most areas probably won’t see more than about a tenth of an inch of rain (if that).

With that said, we’ve had a lot of questions about the tropics—understandably people are still pretty skittish after our brush with Hurricane Harvey. We get that. So here’s a review of what’s out there. Also, I’d like to remind everyone that while the Atlantic hurricane season officially lasts until Nov. 30, for Texas is effectively ends in about three or four weeks. We are almost there, folks.

Hurricane Irma

All eyes are on Irma, a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph moving toward the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. It should reach the vicinity of Puerto Rico by Wednesday night, and poses a significant threat to the Caribbean Islands. Here’s the latest (10am CT) track forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

10am CT track forecast. (National Hurricane Center)

Understandably there is a lot of concern about where the system goes in five to seven days, when it begins to approach Florida and the continental United States. There has been a westward movement in the forecast models over the last day or two, leading to some local concerns that the track may continue to shift westward toward a Texas landfall. We continue to remain pretty confident that is not going to happen.

With that said, the storm’s movement after about Thursday is fairly uncertain. Generally, the ensemble members of both the European and GFS models show the storm moving west-northwest just north of Cuba, and making a turn north just before reaching Florida, over Florida, or just after Florida (into the eastern Gulf of Mexico). Irma is expected to make this northern turn after it finds the western edge of a large ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic region, but at nearly a week from now it’s impossible to determine where that will be.

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Houston forecast: Mostly quiet, dry weather ahead

Sunday, 7:50am CT— Labor Day weekend rolls on and so does our mostly quiet weather. Given what’s needed for relief and recovery efforts across the region, this about as good a forecast as you could hope for in early September.

Today and Labor Day

Expect similar weather both today and tomorrow to what we’ve been seeing the last couple days. It should be mainly sunny, hot, and humid both days. High temperatures will top off in the lower 90s in much of the area. Morning lows will be in the low-to-mid-70s. We did have one or two very isolated showers around the area yesterday, and I suppose we could do the same today and tomorrow. But for the most part, the odds strongly favor you not seeing rain through Monday. Also, air quality will remain stagnant, so you’ll continue to notice haze in the area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Gulf moisture begins to increase on Tuesday, ahead of our midweek cold front. As this happens, we should note a few more showers and storms in the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Again, this won’t be serious stuff, and there’s a better chance that most of you won’t see rain.

Total rainfall through Wednesday morning’s frontal passage should average a quarter of an inch or less. (NWS/Weather Bell)

In fact, total rainfall through Wednesday morning should be about a quarter inch or less on average.

The front passes through the area from north to south Wednesday morning or afternoon, ending the rain threat and dropping dewpoints (humidity) from the 60s and low 70s into the comfortable 50s!

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