Rain chances return to Houston for the next few days

It’s been a hot start to the month of July, with most parts of Houston seeing no rainfall. As high pressure shifts away from the area just a bit, that pattern will change over the next few days, with the return of at least some modest rain chances.

Today

A few scattered showers along the coast this morning will translate into some inland showers this afternoon along the sea breeze. For the most part, I don’t expect significant accumulations. Highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Friday

Atmospheric moisture levels appear likely to rise a bit, and this should lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Don’t expect a lot of rain. While isolated thunderstorms could produce an inch of rain or so, for the most part we are talking about one or two tenths of an inch of rain. Partly cloudy skies should limit high temperatures into the low 90s.

The GFS model forecasts a good slug of moisture over Houston on Friday afternoon and evening. (Weather Bell)

Saturday through Tuesday

The mid- and upper-level winds in the atmosphere should become slightly less favorable for precipitation during this period, and therefore rain coverage will likely be only 10 to 30 percent most days, with light accumulations. For the most part days will be mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Wednesday and beyond

As we get into mid-July, some of the mid-range models suggest that high pressure will strengthen its hold on our weather. This means even hotter conditions—as we might expect during July and August—with highs in the mid- to possibly even upper-90s and mostly sunny skies. I hope that doesn’t come to pass, but it sure seems the most likely outcome at this point.

Posted at 7:30am CT on Thursday by Eric

The reality of summer sets in for Houston

Seven of the last 10 days of June had high temperatures of 90 degrees or below—perhaps offering a false hope that summer doesn’t get so hot in Houston. Alas, July has disabused us of this notion, with highs of 94, 94, 95, and finally 96 degrees on July 4th. This is summer as we know it in Houston, and not a whole lot will change over the next week aside from some increasing rain chances.

Wednesday and Thursday

The region will see some slight rain chances today and Thursday as the boundaries between air masses collide overhead. But while moisture levels in the atmosphere are creeping back up, they’re not particularly high for this time of year so don’t expect any kind of a washout. I suspect that some areas may see a quick tenth of an inch of rain, or two, but a lot of the area won’t see any rainfall at all during the next two days. Look for highs in the mid-90s, with overnight lows in the upper-70s.

Don’t expect too much rain this week, as is borne out in this accumulation forecast. (NOAA)

See full post

Summer set to sink in

Eric’s post from yesterday covered most of what’s about to unfold over Houston for the next week or so (and, really, the next couple months for that matter). Summer is here for real. So just some details here.

Friday Through Tuesday

No big changes to speak of here. We should see a few showers in the area today, but almost certainly nothing like we’ve seen the last several days.

Forecast radar today shows a scattered bit of mostly minor showers through the day. (Weather Bell)

 

It should be more like a smattering of small afternoon downpours in spots than the numerous scattered thunderstorms like we’ve been dealing with. The rain chance drops off a cliff Saturday though. Basically, Saturday through Tuesday look to be about the same: Partly to mostly sunny, hot, humid. I wouldn’t completely rule out a downpour on any of those days (particularly Monday or Tuesday), but the chances are so small, it really isn’t even worth discussing right now.

The rinse and repeat pattern Eric mentioned yesterday also applies for forecast temperatures. Houston should top off around 93-95° each afternoon, with morning lows generally in the mid to upper 70s. If you’re heading to Galveston, a similar story of consistency, with roughly 89-91° each day and lows a bit warmer thanks to the warm Gulf, coming in around 80° each morning.

Beyond Wednesday

Agree with Eric yesterday: Not much change is in store. The pattern looks pretty stable over Texas at least. Expect pretty persistent temperatures. Rain chances may go from like 10% early next week to 20% each afternoon later next week, but I don’t see things getting much worse than that even out toward next weekend at this point. We’re in a quiet period now.

The tropics look quiet in the Gulf and Caribbean as well.

The tropics are quiet in our backyard for the foreseeable future, as the Gulf and Caribbean are void of much moisture and disturbances. (NOAA)

No real signs of anything worth discussing over the next 7-10 days or longer. The eastern Atlantic has seen some aggressive tropical waves early this season, but at this point it’s still a bit early for anything to get moving. If we continue to see these sorts of waves in a month, it will be something to monitor. But for now, breathe easy and enjoy a hot (but quiet) Fourth of July weekend!

Posted at 6:30 AM by Matt

Summer proper is coming to Houston soon

By Houston’s standards, June hasn’t been too bad. Temperatures are going to end up near normal, or slightly below normal for the month. And during the last week persistent clouds and on-and-off rain showers have generally kept high temperatures in the upper 80s. But all good things must come to an end, and for Houston that means the coming of summer proper, just as we get into July and August. These are always the hottest two months in Houston, and undoubtedly this will be the case in 2017.

My advice: If we all hold hands, and huddle underneath the trees for shade, we just might make it to September.

See full post