Flash flood warning for some coastal areas as heavy rains continue

Grim, gray weather has persisted across the Houston metro area on Saturday, but by far the heaviest rains have developed along the coast, where as much as 10 inches of rain have fallen in the last 24 hours. The following map shows estimated satellite rainfall accumulations through the middle of Saturday afternoon:

Rain accumulation during the 24 hours preceding Saturday afternoon. (NOAA)
Rain accumulation during the 24 hours preceding Saturday afternoon. (NOAA)

 

Officially, at of 4:15pm CT, the city of Galveston has recorded 6.14 inches of rain on Saturday, and when the city reaches 6.31 inches it will surpass Dec. 17, 1995, as the wettest December day ever recorded on the island.

Rest of today

A flash flood watch remains in effect for the entire area through Sunday evening, but as we’ve seen the heaviest rains have set up along the coastal counties, that’s where the biggest concern lies. Accordingly a flash flood warning is in effect through 5:45pm CT on Saturday for northwestern Galveston, and northeastern Brazoria counties. Grounds there are now fully saturated.

Area of flash flood warning in effect until 5:45pm CT on Saturday. (National Weather Service)
Area of flash flood warning in effect until 5:45pm CT on Saturday. (National Weather Service)

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Houston under a Flash Flood Watch through Sunday

Good morning, everyone. The National Weather Service in Houston has posted a Flash Flood Watch for the entire region through tomorrow evening. As expected, conditions will become more favorable for flooding to occur in the hardest hit parts of the area as we go deeper into today, tonight, and tomorrow.

The NWS hazards map as of 8:30 AM shows a Flash Flood Watch posted for just about the entire region. (NWS)
The NWS hazards map as of 8:30 AM shows a Flash Flood Watch posted for just about the entire region through Sunday evening. (NWS)

 

Rainfall since yesterday afternoon across the area has been mostly manageable to this point. Northwest Harris County has seen 1-3″, while central and southeast portions of the county have received about a half inch to perhaps up to 1.5″ of rainfall.

An average of about 1-2" of rain has fallen over much of the area since yesterday. (Harris County Flood Control)
An average of about 1-2″ of rain has fallen over much of the area since yesterday. (Harris County Flood Control)

 

Outside of Harris County, Galveston has already set a daily rainfall record for today with over 4″ reported as of the 8 AM observation.

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Rains beginning to fall, and a wet 72 hours lie ahead for Houston

And so it begins … as of the early afternoon hours we’re beginning to see scattered light to moderate rain showers moving into the southern and southeastern parts of the Houston metro area, primarily along the coast. This marks the beginning of about 72 hours in which we’re going to see the region’s wettest period since early this summer.

Matt covered the broad dynamics of the coming rains in a comprehensive post this morning, and at this point not much has changed. I’ve looked over the 12z model guidance and the range of solutions is still pretty broad—from widespread accumulations of 1-2 inches across much of Houston to upwards of 9 inches for wide swaths of the region.

As of 2:45pm CT on Friday the rains are remaining largely offshore. But that will change. (Intellicast)
As of 2:45pm CT on Friday the rains are remaining largely offshore. But that will change. (Intellicast)

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A damp December weekend descends on Houston

It certainly has been awhile, but a damp and stormy weekend is on tap for Southeast Texas. Let’s break it down.

First off, one more hearty thank you to Harmony Strings for sponsoring this site this month!

Today & Saturday

We’ll be quiet for most of the morning today, but clouds will gradually thicken up overhead. Rain showers should begin to break out to our south and west by midday, spreading north and east through afternoon.

Short term HRRR model shows numerous showers developing across Texas today. Some will move into Houston later this afternoon and tonight. (Weather Bell)
Short term HRRR model shows numerous showers developing across Texas today. Some will move into Houston later this afternoon and tonight. (Weather Bell)

A patchwork of scattered showers should be strung out around Houston by the evening commute.

This means that the Christmas tree lighting forecast in Downtown Houston isn’t looking fantastic right now. That said, if the HRRR above is right, we may be able to get it in without too many issues. If you are planning to go, make sure to double check the city’s website or social media feeds.

It may be a bit damp at times for the tree lighting tonight in Downtown Houston

 

Periods of rain and perhaps thunderstorms will continue throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. We may see heavier rain along and north of I-10 toward morning. That may pivot toward Houston more tomorrow. Basically, the whole area will see rain, heavy at times, and thunderstorms at various points through the day Saturday.

A forecast caution here: Yes, it will be a stormy couple of days, but it probably will not rain in your neighborhood the whole time. This type of rain will come in fits and starts. Trying to time exactly when and where we see the heaviest rain is exceptionally difficult more than 12 hours in advance with storm systems like this.

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