Holiday weekend heat for Houston

Happy July! One month of summer is in the books, and as the calendar turns over, the heat will begin to crank up. Yesterday didn’t feel especially awful around Houston, as humidity was fairly low for this time of year. Dewpoints in the low 70s are tolerable. At least you don’t feel like you’re walking into a wall when you step outside. As we go through the holiday weekend, that will probably change.

TODAY & TOMORROW

I expect similar weather today and tomorrow to what we saw on Thursday. Rain chances look low both days, with a morning shower or storm possible near the coast and a couple hit or miss afternoon downpours possible inland. Rain chances never really go beyond 10% or so.

The biggest change will be overnight lows and humidity. While low temps have been generally in the low to mid 70s this week, we’ll see them transition to the mid or upper 70s by Saturday night/Sunday AM. With that, humidity will also increase. Dewpoints in the low 70s will transition to the mid 70s over the weekend, making the low to mid 90s each afternoon feel progressively more unpleasant.

Forecast high temperatures today look near typical for July: Hot. (Weather Bell)
Forecast high temperatures today look near typical for July: Hot. (Weather Bell)

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A few stray showers possible, but “high” summer is coming to Houston

Good morning. We’re a day away from July, and it’s as if Mother Nature knows this. After a relatively cool late spring and early summer, we’re about to jump into Houston’s heat and humidity with both feet.

Today through Saturday

Some storms that have developed offshore early this morning are likely to work their way inward to the southern half of the Houston metro area later this morning, and during the afternoon hours. I’m not expecting anything more than brief, isolated to scattered thunderstorms, however. This pattern of a few stray storms should continue for both Friday and Saturday. Highs should climb into the mid-90s, with lows in the upper 70s. And if you think this is bad, just wait until next week.

Sunday and Beyond

As high pressure stamps its authority on the region Houston will descend deeper into summer. As most long-time residents know, high pressure during high summer means temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s, mostly sunny skies, only a very slight chance of rain and the potential for heat advisories.

High pressure builds over Texas next week (this map shows the Wednesday morning forecast from the GFS model). (Weather Bell)
High pressure builds over Texas next week (this map shows the Wednesday morning forecast from the GFS model). (Weather Bell)

 

There’s just no way to sugar coat what is coming, I’m afraid. Sorry to say, but I don’t see much relief from this pattern at any point next week.

Posted at 7:55am CT on Thursday by Eric Berger

Scattered storms possible for a few days high pressure clamps down on Houston

Some fairly heavy storms rolled into Houston on Tuesday, and as boundaries collided during the afternoon hours the region picked up 0.0 to 2.5 inches of rain with some heavy thunderstorms. After two weeks of mostly dry weather the rain and some of its outflows offered a brief reprieve from summer. This morning, with a weak front offshore, it feels almost pleasant out there for late June. But it won’t last.

Rain totals for Tuesday. (National Weather Service)
Rain totals for Tuesday. (National Weather Service)

Today

The main area of instability remains offshore this morning, which means we’re unlikely to see any rain before some daytime heating. However we could see development of some scattered showers this afternoon with the sea breeze. Rain chances appear to be highest for coastal counties and areas to the east of downtown Houston. Further inland, for Montgomery county and areas west and northwest of the city I’d rate rain chances as very low (although not non-existent.) Highs in the low- to mid-90s.

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Storms developing across Houston, should persist into the early evening

As the sea breeze and a weak front collide over Houston we’re starting to see widespread development of showers and thunderstorms over the metro area. It appears that storms between 2:30 and 4:30pm CT will probably be heaviest for the central and northern parts of Harris County.

A flood advisory has been issued for the following areas until 4:30pm CT:

Area of flood advisory in effect until 4:30pm CT. (National Weather Service)
Area of flood advisory in effect until 4:30pm CT. (National Weather Service)

These storms will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential to flood some low-lying streets. However we do not expect these storms to produce widespread flooding. Strong wind gusts and lightning are also a threat. These storms will probably die out for good by, or shortly before sunset.