Good morning. The greater Houston region experienced very heavy rains on Saturday, particularly along the coast. With 7.68 inches, officially, Galveston recorded its single wettest day during any winter month, on record. Just inland in Texas City conditions were more grave still, with as many as 11 inches of rain falling. Parts of Galveston Island, Tiki Island, and La Marque all experienced significant flooding, and a Red Cross shelter was established in League City at Bay Harbour UMC, 3459 Deke Slayton Highway, for affected residents.

After a relatively quiet Saturday night, storms began moving into the Houston region a couple of hours before sunrise on Sunday, setting the stage for another wet morning. Due to lower pressures offshore, moist Gulf air will continue to flow inland at the surface, and at the same time in the higher levels of the atmosphere there is a pronounced flow of moist air from the west. The net effect of this is a water vapor “highway” flowing into Texas from the southwest, up through the eastern half of Texas and along the coast.

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Grim, gray weather has persisted across the Houston metro area on Saturday, but by far the heaviest rains have developed along the coast, where as much as 10 inches of rain have fallen in the last 24 hours. The following map shows estimated satellite rainfall accumulations through the middle of Saturday afternoon:

Officially, at of 4:15pm CT, the city of Galveston has recorded 6.14 inches of rain on Saturday, and when the city reaches 6.31 inches it will surpass Dec. 17, 1995, as the wettest December day ever recorded on the island.

Rest of today

A flash flood watch remains in effect for the entire area through Sunday evening, but as we’ve seen the heaviest rains have set up along the coastal counties, that’s where the biggest concern lies. Accordingly a flash flood warning is in effect through 5:45pm CT on Saturday for northwestern Galveston, and northeastern Brazoria counties. Grounds there are now fully saturated.

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And so it begins … as of the early afternoon hours we’re beginning to see scattered light to moderate rain showers moving into the southern and southeastern parts of the Houston metro area, primarily along the coast. This marks the beginning of about 72 hours in which we’re going to see the region’s wettest period since early this summer.

Matt covered the broad dynamics of the coming rains in a comprehensive post this morning, and at this point not much has changed. I’ve looked over the 12z model guidance and the range of solutions is still pretty broad—from widespread accumulations of 1-2 inches across much of Houston to upwards of 9 inches for wide swaths of the region.

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