Setting the table for today and tonight’s storms

Good morning. It’s going to be a busy day across Southeast Texas, especially as we get deeper into it. I’ll update the Facebook page this afternoon if conditions warrant, and look for another post here this evening, once we get just a little more clarity on how things tonight into Wednesday will unfold.

THIS MORNING & AFTERNOON

There should be no serious issues this morning. A few showers will be around, but severe weather should be absent from our area. A few stronger storms could get going east of I-45 by Midday however.

Houston will be in an interesting spot today. The atmosphere is capped at present (meaning there’s basically a “lid” on things that will suppress storms this morning). As the day goes on, that cap will dissipate, and we’ll be able to start generating thunderstorms. What does all this mean in English? It may take some coaxing to get storms going today. That said, once they do get going, it won’t take a lot for them to become strong or severe, so you’ll want to stay on guard today.

Severe weather risk today is highest from Houston to points south and west. (NOAA)
Severe weather risk today is highest from Houston to points south and west. (NOAA)

So bottom line: Scattered showers and hit/miss thunderstorms today. Rain totals should be manageable outside of the heaviest activity. Most folks should see 0.5″ or less during the daytime today, with isolated higher totals in any more stubborn storms (where up to 2″ or so will be possible).

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National Weather Service issues a flash flood watch for Houston

As expected, the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for the greater Houston metro area from noon Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon.

Area of flash flood warning. (National Weather Service)
Area of flash flood warning. (National Weather Service)

 

The National Weather Service forecasts rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches for most areas, with isolated totals of up to 10 to 12 inches possible. The main time of concern remains Wednesday morning.

Update on storms expected Tuesday night and Wednesday

After taking a look at some the latest model guidance here’s an updated look at what to expect on Tuesday and Wednesday, which likely will be the worst times for storm activity in the greater Houston metro area.

TUESDAY

Right now I anticipate light to moderate rainfall on Tuesday afternoon, with most areas seeing between 0 and 1 inch of rain. There should not be too much trouble with the commute home on Tuesday evening. At some point between 6 p.m. and midnight we’ll see an increase in rain showers. Here’s why:

A low-pressure system will act like a vacuum cleaner to draw exceptionally high levels of moisture (seen here in precipitable water standard deviations) into Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. (Weather Bell)
A low-pressure system will act like a vacuum cleaner to draw exceptionally high levels of moisture (seen here in precipitable water standard deviations) into Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas, and points further north. (Weather Bell)

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After a winter of mild weather comes a potentially severe week

We’ve got lots to discuss about the week of weather ahead, so let’s get right to it this morning.

TODAY

We’ll see mostly cloudy conditions today as the wind ramps up out of the south, gusting as high as 25 mph. Temperatures will climb into the mid-70s. Rain chances will remain fairly low, however, due to a capping inversion. Expect lows tonight in the upper 60s.

TUESDAY

Those southerly winds will continue throughout Monday night and into Tuesday morning, raising moisture levels in the atmosphere. They will also increase tides along the coast by as much as 3 to 4 feet above normal, and the National Weather Service has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory. We should see increasing coverage of light to moderate rain during the afternoon hours on Tuesday, but the bigger threat comes Tuesday night.

NOAA Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday and Tuesday night. (NOAA)
NOAA Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday and especially Tuesday night. (NOAA)

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