Space City Weather

Strong thunderstorms on the west side of Houston

May 12, 2016 at 9:05 pm by Eric Berger

A line fairly strong thunderstorms has developed this evening to the west and southwest of Houston, bringing locally heavy rains, intense winds and dime-sized hail. These storms are moving slowly to the east-southeast.

The area of heaviest storms as of 9pm is indicated below:

Area of heaviest storms through 9:30pm CT. (National Weather Service)

So far bayous are holding up fine, but there is some localized street flooding beneath the heaviest rains.

Some of the latest modeling suggests these storms may intensify for the next couple of hours, before weakening later tonight. If they’re going to present an ongoing threat we’ll update the site later.

Posted at 9pm CT Thursday

Warm, dry conditions for Houston to start the weekend, rain returns next week

May 12, 2016 at 6:57 am by Eric Berger

It’s another morning with 100 percent, or near 100 percent humidity across the area, and lows generally in the mid-70s across the area.

TODAY

There were strong storms during the overnight hours in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, but as the associated system has sagged to the southeast it has weakened. This should leave the Houston area with partly to mostly sunny skies for the first half of today. A slow-moving, weak front will then push into the area later this afternoon. There’s some chance of thunderstorms with this system, but at this point there just doesn’t seem to be enough lift with the front to really drive widespread showers. Most areas probably won’t see rain as the front slowly moves through Houston this afternoon, evening and tonight.

Approximate location of the cool front this evening from 7-10pm CT. (National Weather Service)

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Near-normal Atlantic hurricane season likely, but some Gulf concerns

May 11, 2016 at 10:02 am by Eric Berger

To begin with, I’ll be honest and say I don’t place much stock in hurricane season forecasts. For one, they’re not particularly accurate (although they do demonstrate some skill). Secondly, although it may be a slow hurricane season overall, if the one big storm that develops hits your community it sure wasn’t a slow hurricane season for you. With that being said there are three main factors we can look at now to get some sense of what is coming beginning on June 1 with the Atlantic season.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

Simply put, when all other things are equal, warm water provides more fuel for hurricanes. At their most basic level hurricanes are essentially heat exchangers, bringing heat from the tropics into the northern latitudes. More heat in the tropics means more potential energy for these storms.

In the chart below the European forecast model is predicting the sea surface temperature anomaly for the period of July through September, the most critical months for hurricane formation and the state of Texas.

Sea surface temperature anomaly for July through September. (ECMWF)

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Houston to see a brief reprieve from muggy conditions, but storms possible late this weekend

May 11, 2016 at 6:58 am by Eric Berger

The low temperature this morning has only fallen into the low 70s across most of the Houston area this morning,a nd so it goes as we get deeper into May…

TODAY

Some scattered showers moved across parts of Houston early this morning. We also can’t rule out some more spotty showers and thunderstorms this morning and later today with afternoon heating—especially to the far north and northwest of the city. But for the most part, the region will see cloudy skies give way to partly sunny skies later today. I expect high temperatures to climb into the upper 80s again today, along with strong southerly winds gusting to above 20 mph.

THURSDAY

We’ll see another warm, partly sunny day on Thursday, with the possible development of scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day and during the overnight hours as a cool front approaches and moves through Houston. With that being said conditions aren’t overly favorable for the development of storms, so I’d expect a broken line of showers as the front moves down through Texas and into the Houston area. Highs, again, will be in the upper 80s.

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