Strong upper-level storm system will bring heavy rains this week

Good morning. We interrupt this lovely Sunday morning to bring you an update on the heavy rain chances we’ve been talking about for some time.

We’ll see fine weather today, and although Monday appears likely to be breezy with gusts up to 25 mph and cloudy, I don’t expect too much precipitation to fall. We’re going to have to wait for Tuesday, and more likely Tuesday night, for the action to begin. But first, a quick word about what’s driving this week’s heavy precipitation.

A very strong upper-level trough, an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere, will move into Mexico this week. What’s so striking about this system is that it’s forecast to be as much as six standard deviations below normal, so these are really abnormally low pressures for March. Low pressure in the upper atmosphere allows air at the surface to rise. And generally more vigorous rising air leads to strong rain showers when there’s atmospheric moisture.

(Weather Bell)
The GFS model forecast for 500mb pressures, note the 6+ standard deviation low over Mexico shown in bright, Barney-like purple. (Weather Bell)

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Enjoy the weekend, because next week looks stormy

Yesterday was a classic mid-spring like day in Houston. We hit 84 degrees, which makes it the warmest day of 2016 so far. We won’t be pushing that the next few days, but it will stay warm.All the details below, and scroll to the end for an important article you should be reading today.

TODAY

I won’t implicitly suggest today is a good day to play hooky, but it’ll be awfully nice. Expect plenty of sun, low humidity, and temperatures roughly 10 degrees cooler than Thursday (mid-70s). Another winner.

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Muggy today, really nice this weekend, and turning wet next week

Good morning. It’s quite a bit warmer out, as expected, with a muggy start to the day and temperatures in the upper 60s.

TODAY

A cold front is coming, likely reaching the central part of the metro area by about noon, and pushing off the coast late this afternoon. Expect breezy conditions along with and after the front. We’ll see quite a warm day, with highs in the low 80s, before temperature cools off tonight as the Sun begins to set. Also, much drier air is moving in behind the front.

This relative humidity forecast for 6 a.m. this morning shows the stark difference in front of, and behind a cold front coming down through Texas. (Weather Bell)
This relative humidity forecast for 6 a.m. this morning shows the stark difference in front of, and behind a cold front coming down through Texas. (Weather Bell)

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We’ll be cooler for a bit, but the chilly mornings won’t last long

Good morning. After a weak cool front crossed the region later on Tuesday we’re seeing more normal temperatures for this time of year, with lows in the low 50s.

TODAY

A northerly flow will hold temperatures in the low 70s today under mostly sunny skies. However the front will wash out, and winds will resume from the Gulf of Mexico this evening, which in turn should prevent low temperatures from falling below 60 degrees.

A cold front has worked its way through most of Texas this morning. (Weather Bell)
A cold front has worked its way through most of Texas this morning. (Weather Bell)

THURSDAY

We’ll see fairly warm conditions, with highs near 80 degrees, before a second cold front arrives later in the day. This will drive lows down to near 50 degrees by Friday morning. Although we can’t rule out a stray shower with the front, I don’t expect any rain.

FRIDAY

After a relatively cool start to the day, highs on Friday will climb into the mid-70s under mostly sunny skies.

THE WEEKEND

We’ll continue to see seasonably warm conditions for the weekend, with highs in the mid-70s, under mostly sunny skies, and lows around 60 degrees. It will certainly be pleasant, but you might like the nights to be cooler.

NEXT WEEK

I’m still seeing a pattern change in the upper level of the atmosphere that will draw more moisture toward Texas early next week. We should see scattered to widespread rain showers from Monday through Wednesday, depending on the storm track, and mostly cloudy skies. It’s a bit too early to forecast rainfall amounts.