Season’s first freeze possible for northern Houston on Monday

Temperatures dipped into the upper 30s across most of Houston on Sunday morning, and Monday morning will be a few degrees cooler. But will the region finally see its first freeze?

It’s going to be close, and the answer likely depends upon high clouds, which are difficult to predict. The freezing line will probably fall somewhere north of Interstate 10, likely near Bush Intercontinental Airport. Some of the best model guidance predicts temperatures between 32 and 34 degrees at this location on Monday morning. For areas further north there should be little question about seeing freezing temperatures for a few hours on Monday.

(National Weather Service)
(National Weather Service)

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Houston Marathon forecast: 8 days to go, strength of front remains uncertain

Whereas they were once consistent, the global forecast models are all over the place in terms of temperatures for the morning of Sunday, Jan. 17th. They range from the mid-20s (Canadian) to low-50s (GFS) in terms of the temperature at start time.

This tells us the models are still having a difficult time handling the timing and intensity of a cold front that will probably arrive shortly before the marathon. In looking at the best forecast model, the European, it calls for temperatures in the upper 30s. However the ensemble members predict a very broad range of temperatures from the low 20s to upper 50s. The highest confidence range is from 32 to 45 degrees.

The GFS model has turned warmer for the starting line of the Houston Marathon. But given its lack of consistency I would doubt it at this time. (Weather Bell)
The GFS model has turned warmer for the starting line of the Houston Marathon. But given its lack of consistency I would doubt it at this time. (Weather Bell)

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Unofficial forecast for the Houston Marathon: Potentially very cold

Dear runners, how cold do you like it?

I must caution that we’re still nine days out from the start of the Houston Marathon, but whooboy right now we are setting up for cold conditions. Three of the major global models, the GFS, Canadian and European, all show a fairly strong cold front moving into Houston on the Friday or Saturday before the marathon, with race time temperatures in the low- to upper-30s. That’s right, I would not rule out freezing conditions at the run’s 7 a.m. CT start time Sunday.

This morning I spoke with Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with Weather Bell whose forecast skills I respect, and he says when it gets cold like this the Canadian model does pretty well, and at this point its the coldest (see attached image). If the front has moved through I don’t think we will have to worry about rainfall, the big concern will be wind chill, even 10 mph at that temperature would make it feel like the 20s during the run.

How cold is too cold? Here's the Canadian model temperature forecast for 6 a.m. Sunday, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell)
How cold is too cold? Here’s the Canadian model temperature forecast for 6 a.m. Sunday, Jan. 17th. (Weather Bell)

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Dense AM fog, then quick moving showers possible later today

Give yourself a few extra minutes out the door this morning as dense fog is hampering visibility all over the area. A Dense Fog Advisory is posted til 10 AM. Fortunately, we won’t be mired in this weather all weekend.

TODAY/TONIGHT

Once the fog dissipates, we should see some sunshine. But our next weather maker is going to plow through here by mid to late afternoon, allowing for clouds and showers to develop. Similar to Wednesday night/Thursday AM, this disturbance will have some vigor to it, so the possibility of thunderstorms is there. These quick moving systems hitting California and then plowing across Texas can surprise with more thunder or rain than expected sometimes. The difference between today and Wednesday night though will be that the majority of this storm won’t get organized until it’s east of Houston, so the heaviest action with this one will be east of I-45 and perhaps mostly in Louisiana. Still, just be alert for some downpours or thunder any time after 3-4 PM today.

Forecast radar for 6 PM this evening shows most activity east of I-45. Still, be on the look out for some downpours later. (Weather Bell)
Forecast radar for 6 PM this evening shows most activity east of I-45. Still, be on the look out for some downpours later. (Weather Bell)

Things clear out after midnight tonight.

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