As promised, I’ll be providing daily weather outlooks for the Chevron Houston Marathon from now until race day, Jan. 17th.

At 13 days out there’s still not a whole lot we can say with confidence, especially because forecast accuracy after 7 to 10 days is pretty low even though forecast models run out to 16 days. With that said I’m feeling decent about not seeing abnormally warm conditions on race day, and we may very well see cooler than normal conditions. So let’s discuss what we know, and what we don’t.

Perhaps the best way to gauge conditions from this far out is to look at the ensemble runs of global forecast models. That is, the GFS and European models are each run about 50 different times with slightly different starting conditions. This gives a range of outcomes, and from looking at all of these ensemble runs we can get some probabilities on conditions. For example, do most of the ensemble runs show warmer or colder conditions?

The GFS model is colder than the European during the next two weeks as it predicts a major Arctic outbreak across Texas in about 11 days time. If this event occurs we could see very cold temperatures on marathon day, like in the low 30s on the morning of the run. (Is that too cold for most people?)

Anyway, the model forecasts the probability of a high temperature greater than 50 degrees Fahrenheit at noon to be 30 percent, or less. This is good, obviously, because anything warmer than 50 degrees can become uncomfortable after several hours of running.

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It has been cold during the last week, but we still haven’t had really, really cold weather yet. Houston’s first Arctic front may come later this month, however. We are certainly due.

LATE FREEZE?

Houston is more than a month late for its first freeze of the season. Since the official weather station moved to Bush Intercontinental Airport in 1969 the first freeze has come, on average, on Dec. 1. It’s never been later Jan. 5th, according to data collected by Brian Brettschneider. That’s tomorrow.

TODAY and TUESDAY

Conditions today and Tuesday will be similar to Sunday, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 50s. Tuesday morning will be cold, but I expect most of the area to remain above freezing. If that’s the case this winter will bring the city’s latest freeze since the 1960s.

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Good morning. One more gray day before the Sun returns. We’ll also see better chances for heavy rain next week.

TODAY

Light rain showers are moving into the region from the southwest, and I expect that by this afternoon or evening most parts of the Houston area will see at least some mist, if not light precipitation. Nothing to write home about, though, and highs will struggle to reach 50 degrees.

SUNDAY

The aptly named Sunday will see the return of the Sun. Finally. After a cold start at about 40 degrees, highs will climb into the mid-50s. Should be a really nice day after what we’ve been experiencing.

MONDAY-TUESDAY

Partly to mostly sunny skies and cool days in the 50s will remain the order of the day through Tuesday afternoon or evening. Tuesday morning will be quite cold under clear skies, but I don’t think most of the Houston metro area will reach freezing temperatures. We’ll at least be close, however.

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It’s a chilly morning with temperatures in the upper 40s across most of Houston, and we’re not going to warm up much for the next several days.

TODAY

New Year’s Eve will remain, for the most part, gray and cold with highs only in the mid-50s. If there’s an upside it’s that I expect most areas will not see much, if any rain this afternoon and evening during the hours of revelry. Any rain that does fall will be light. However conditions tonight will be cold, and with a 10 to 15 mph northerly wind it will feel like about 40 degrees out.

NEW YEAR’S DAY and SATURDAY

The New Year is going to start out cold and gray. Both Friday and Saturday will struggle to reach 50 degrees as cold air moves in from the north. Skies will remain leaden, with light rain possible day and night. Accumulations should be slight.

SUNDAY

After a cold morning with temperatures possibly falling into the upper 30s our skies should finally clear, leading to a sunny day with highs in the mid-50s. Do not be afraid of the big, bright orange ball in the sky. That is a normal condition.

NEXT WEEK

After sunny and cool conditions on Monday and Tuesday the forecast remains a bit tricky for next week. Although I’m fairly confident we’re going to continue to see winter-like temperatures in Houston, the second half of next week could see some decent rain chances. We’ll have to wait and see.