Yes, it is still going to rain

This storm has been maddening. You have to walk a very fine line between panicking people and providing actionable information. The balance is between the weather models (screaming 5-10″ of rain), the reality that big rain events aren’t that uncommon here, and the fact that people have a recent disaster (Memorial Day 2015) fresh in mind. It makes it difficult to communicate the information effectively. I know a lot of events and even some schools have been cancelled tonight and tomorrow. And it hasn’t rained much around Houston yet today, so people have to be very confused.

Here’s the scoop.

RECAP OF TODAY

The worst of this event was always supposed to be overnight tonight into tomorrow. Recall this morning, I said that most areas would see 0.5″ or less in all likelihood during the day today. Most have.

Rainfall through 4:30 PM Tuesday has been light for most. Blue specks near Beaumont indicate 1-2" though. (Radarscope)
Rainfall through 4:30 PM Tuesday has been light for most. Blue specks near Bay City, Beaumont & Orange indicate 1-2″ though. (Radarscope)

The good news today has been a very distinct lack of severe weather in Southeast Texas. We’ve managed to get through without any serious issues or warnings. The best parameters for severe weather will continue to exit to our east this evening and any tornado threat overnight will likely stay closer to the Golden Triangle than in Houston.

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Setting the table for today and tonight’s storms

Good morning. It’s going to be a busy day across Southeast Texas, especially as we get deeper into it. I’ll update the Facebook page this afternoon if conditions warrant, and look for another post here this evening, once we get just a little more clarity on how things tonight into Wednesday will unfold.

THIS MORNING & AFTERNOON

There should be no serious issues this morning. A few showers will be around, but severe weather should be absent from our area. A few stronger storms could get going east of I-45 by Midday however.

Houston will be in an interesting spot today. The atmosphere is capped at present (meaning there’s basically a “lid” on things that will suppress storms this morning). As the day goes on, that cap will dissipate, and we’ll be able to start generating thunderstorms. What does all this mean in English? It may take some coaxing to get storms going today. That said, once they do get going, it won’t take a lot for them to become strong or severe, so you’ll want to stay on guard today.

Severe weather risk today is highest from Houston to points south and west. (NOAA)
Severe weather risk today is highest from Houston to points south and west. (NOAA)

So bottom line: Scattered showers and hit/miss thunderstorms today. Rain totals should be manageable outside of the heaviest activity. Most folks should see 0.5″ or less during the daytime today, with isolated higher totals in any more stubborn storms (where up to 2″ or so will be possible).

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National Weather Service issues a flash flood watch for Houston

As expected, the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for the greater Houston metro area from noon Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon.

Area of flash flood warning. (National Weather Service)
Area of flash flood warning. (National Weather Service)

 

The National Weather Service forecasts rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches for most areas, with isolated totals of up to 10 to 12 inches possible. The main time of concern remains Wednesday morning.

Update on storms expected Tuesday night and Wednesday

After taking a look at some the latest model guidance here’s an updated look at what to expect on Tuesday and Wednesday, which likely will be the worst times for storm activity in the greater Houston metro area.

TUESDAY

Right now I anticipate light to moderate rainfall on Tuesday afternoon, with most areas seeing between 0 and 1 inch of rain. There should not be too much trouble with the commute home on Tuesday evening. At some point between 6 p.m. and midnight we’ll see an increase in rain showers. Here’s why:

A low-pressure system will act like a vacuum cleaner to draw exceptionally high levels of moisture (seen here in precipitable water standard deviations) into Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. (Weather Bell)
A low-pressure system will act like a vacuum cleaner to draw exceptionally high levels of moisture (seen here in precipitable water standard deviations) into Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas, and points further north. (Weather Bell)

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