Record warmth for one more day in Houston before a front

Houston appears to have set a record for a “high minimum” temperature on Tuesday, February 5th, when the low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport only fell to 68 degrees—breaking the mark of 67 degrees set in 1927. This morning temperatures are warmer still at the airport, with lows only bottoming out at 71 degrees as of 6:15am. Another record minimum therefore seems likely, and Wednesday’s high temperature may well threaten the daily high for February 6 (81 degrees, set in 2017). A front on Thursday will abruptly end the anomalous warmth.

Wednesday

We can expect another warm and mostly gray day, much like we’ve already experienced this week in Houston. Highs should reach the upper 70s across the region, although we can’t rule out Houston’s first 80-degree mark if there are enough breaks in the clouds this afternoon. Slight rain chances will linger, but they should be only 10 to 20 percent for most of the area, with very light accumulations. Mostly just gray and warm today therefore, with south winds on the order of 10 to 15mph.

Thursday

After one more warm night, we’ll finally see the region’s next cold front on Thursday. In terms of timing, I expect it to move through northern and western parts of the region before noon, move through downtown around noon, and it should push off the coast before sunset. In terms of activity, we could see a few thunderstorms and some stronger winds as the front passes through with the aid of daytime heating. However, overall rain accumulations appear to be fairly low, probably no more than one to three tenths of an inch for most. After the front expect a quick cool down, as brisk northerly winds drop temperatures in the upper 30s for inland areas and low 40s closer to the coast Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday

These will be cold and mostly gray days, with highs in the upper 40s or low 50s. As the upper atmosphere remains disturbed, we can’t rule out some light rain later on Friday or Saturday morning, but chances are probably 20 percent or less. Lows Friday night will be the coldest, but the area is unlikely to see a freeze, even for well inland areas.

Sunday

This front will be here, and then gone, as the onshore flow resumes later on Saturday, setting up much warmer conditions for Sunday. Highs could be nearly 20 degrees warmer, reaching near 70 degrees. Some slight rain chances remain, along with our old friend—gray skies.

Later next week

The warm-up will continue into Tuesday, as highs get back into the low-70s, before a cold front later on Tuesday or Wednesday knocks highs back down. We’re not looking at anything too extreme when it comes to rains or temperatures, however.