Tropical disturbance may develop in the Gulf this week

As expected this weekend, the Houston region has transitioned from a hot and sunny pattern that dominated the first half of July into one with more clouds, higher rain chances, and slightly cooler temperatures. That trend will continue this week. So why are we posting on a Sunday? Because a tropical system may approach Texas late this week.

This morning the National Hurricane Center called attention to the possibility that this system will develop into a tropical depression or storm, giving it a 20 percent chance of doing so by Friday.

A tropical disturbance may move into the Gulf this week. (National Hurricane Center)

This may sound scary, but right now this is not a feature we’re overly concerned about. While it is possible that this disturbance develops into a weak tropical storm, there appears to be only a little support for this scenario in the global models, and no indication whatsoever of anything stronger than that. So as is often the case with tropical systems in June and July, the biggest worry is heavy rainfall. That’s possible on Friday and Saturday, but again there is no particularly strong signal for extensive heavy rainfall in the global models.

The bottom line: We’re tracking the movement of a tropical system that will push into the Gulf of Mexico this week, and should head toward Texas. There is, for now, no evidence of any particularly extreme weather—perhaps we will see a few inches of rainfall and some elevated winds. We will of course continue to watch it closely.

11 thoughts on “Tropical disturbance may develop in the Gulf this week”

  1. I have been waiting for you all this morning. Thank you for the calming information. A particular weather guy this morning was bouncing off the walls with excitement about the disturbance. I like to play it by ear and panic if and when necessary.

  2. And this is why I put in a dab of money for a subscription to SCW. You knew we’d have concerns, and here you are with information and reassurance … on a Sunday. Thank you.

  3. Not hoping for floods, but we could really use some soaking rain for a couple of days.

  4. Anything short of Harvey is a blessing. We need the rain. My pecan crop needs the rain.

  5. Ditto on what Murray Powell said earlier – this kind of calm reporting is what makes me happy to kick in some dollars in late fall to support Space City Weather.

    As for the rain chatter: only just a little (half inch a day), please. We like to save it all up to drop in tanker truck amounts in late August/early September. Tell those pecan trees to drink whiskey in the meantime. Just kidding.

  6. Able to cautiously git outta town for a few days here during COVID and wake up to this. Glad to hear from you though instead of the NY Poster style!

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