In brief: In today’s post we discuss the rumors about a “snow bomb” hitting Houston around Valentine’s Day (you will be shocked to learn the rumors are not true). We also discuss our moderating temperatures this week, and what looks to be a splendid weekend ahead.

Gulf coast “snow bomb”

Matt and I began to receive some messages on Saturday morning about the potential for the greater Houston region to receive another Arctic blast around Valentine’s Day. The questions kept coming on Sunday, along the lines of, “rumors are circulating …” about the threat of a major snowfall in the region. We were scratching our heads because there were no valid indications of such an occurrence.

Nevertheless we did a little digging. It was pretty clear from the outset what precipitated the concerns. A single run of the GFS model, the 06z output on Saturday morning (publicly available about 5 am CT, usually) showed a ridiculous amount of snowfall across the Houston area, like two feet. It would set records. Such an event would be historic. But of course there was no real reason to believe a model output that was forecasting an event two weeks away. That is the “silly season” range of model output, and the US-based GFS model is notoriously bad with these kinds of things. And as one might expect, by the very next run, this snowfall was completely gone. Poof!

This, alone, would not have been enough to spark questions. But then my wife stumbled across this post on Facebook later on Saturday morning. Note that it contains a double dose of dumb because the “author” uses the “Houston, we have a problem” cliche.

This nonsense, therefore, came from a deadly duo in today’s day and age when it comes to weather information. First you need a single model run showing a long-range forecast more than 10 days out. Then you need a social mediarologist to spread the hype. It’s a pretty unstoppable combination. But as a consumer there are a couple of things you can do to combat this. First of all, check to see how far out the forecast is. If it’s 10 days or greater, be super wary. If it’s forecasting an extreme event, be super super wary. And if the post uses the #fblifestyle hashtag, you can have a good laugh because this is not a serious person.

Really, all you need to do is check Space City Weather. If there is a credible chance of a major winter storm in Houston, we’ll be talking about the possibility. We promise.

Monday

Temperatures this morning have bottomed out at about 40 degrees, and we are already seeing a southerly flow that will warm us up nicely this afternoon. Expect highs of about 70 degrees. We also will see increasing cloud cover as atmospheric moisture levels ramp up. As a result low temperatures tonight will only briefly drop below 60 degrees.

Tuesday

This will be a mostly cloudy and warm day, with high temperatures generally in the low 70s along with southerly winds. We also will see a chance of light showers during the daytime. By late afternoon, and during the evening hours, a front will approach the area and we may see a line of broken showers and a few thunderstorms. These will persist until around midnight or perhaps a bit later down by the coast. Rains will probably be hit or miss, with some locations picking up a trace of rain and other areas one-half inch or more. Temperatures will start falling after midnight.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be fine, sunny days with highs in the low- to mid-60s and overnight lows in the low- to mid-40s. Wednesday may be a bit breezy.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

If you have outdoor plans scheduled for this weekend, you’re in lucky. We should see mostly sunny skies on Friday and Saturday, with a few clouds returning by Sunday. Highs will be in the low- to mid-70s through the weekend, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. It looks positively gorgeous for any outdoor activities.

Next week

The first half of next week looks to be on the warm-ish side, with highs in the mid-70s perhaps and lows in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. Some kind of front may push through by around Thursday or so, to cool things off a bit, and bring a chance of rain. The front may drop overnight lows into the 40s, or it may not have that much oomph.

So what about the snow chances for Valentine’s Day? Well, perhaps if you’re traveling to Boston for the weekend.

In brief: Another possible hard freeze awaits Houston on Sunday morning with colder air starting once more today. Remember your plants, pets, pipes, and neighbors. However, it does look like we swing back warmer next week for a time before our next chance of rain around midweek.

If you enjoyed the cold temperatures earlier this week, we have good news for you. If you hate the cold, we also have good news for you. Let’s just call it a good news Friday!

Basic cold weather preps again this weekend

We tend to treat the cold with some cheekiness, but it’s obviously always serious business here in Texas when it gets this cold. Saturday night and Sunday morning is the timeframe you want to really take some precautions on the extra sensitive plants, keep the pipes wrapped, and absolutely bring the pets inside.

Today

This morning may see some mixed sun and clouds before we likely go mainly cloudy for the afternoon. There is a chance that we’ll see the back edge of the clouds begin to push through the region by late afternoon and evening, followed by a clear and colder overnight. Highs will be in the 50s today as long as we get some breaks in the clouds or maybe they aren’t super thick. Otherwise, we’ll say upper-40s to low-50s.

Saturday

With clear skies will come colder temperatures tonight. Lows will be in the 30s with a light freeze possible outside the 610 Loop. Temps may dip into the 20s in some far-flung rural areas in Liberty, Walker, northern Waller, Austin, or Colorado Counties. A cold weather advisory has been posted for the entire area for Saturday morning.

Saturday itself should be a blustery but nice winter day with sunshine and highs in the 40s. The wind will make it feel more like the 30s however, even with the sunshine.

Sunday

We would advise cold weather preparations, which most of you already implemented this week anyway to continue on Sunday morning. Lows should drop into the 20s area wide.

A few locations may even dip into the teens in rural or sheltered spots. There is even some chance that a few places in the area check in as cold on Sunday morning than they did at the peak of the cold earlier this week. Coastal areas will drop to near freezing. A freeze watch is in effect.

The rest of Sunday looks glorious with sunshine, lighter winds, and highs in the 50s. Just an absolutely picture-perfect winter day.

Next week

We should continue the warming trend Monday with sunshine and highs in the 60s. A few freezing temps are possible in outlying areas one last time Monday morning, with 30s or low 40s elsewhere. Tuesday should be even warmer with highs near 70 degrees and lows in the 40s and 50s. The forecast looks a smidge trickier later next week with a chance of showers or storms and a cold front either later Tuesday or Wednesday, followed by more seasonably cold air than the unseasonable cold we saw this week to close out the first week of February.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s brief run at normal high temperatures today, and then look at blustery (but dry) cold front arriving Thursday evening. This will lead to a cold weekend, with the chilliest temperatures coming on Sunday morning.

Briefly reaching normal highs

If you were wondering, Houston has already sailed through the typically “coldest” period of winter. This occurs from January 6 to January 14, when the average high is 63 degrees, and average low is 43 degrees. By late January we’ve already reached an average high of 65 degrees for the month.

However, you may have noticed we’ve been quite cold of late. Houston’s high temperature has not reached 65 degrees in more than a week, and after doing so today (probably) it won’t again until next Monday or Tuesday, at least. So enjoy today’s brief taste of “normal” January weather before another front arrives tonight.

Thursday

We are seeing some patchy fog again this morning, but this should dissipate fairly quickly as sunny skies prevail today. With southerly winds we are going to see temperatures warm nicely into the 65 to 70 degree range this afternoon. A cold front should push into the area this evening, likely between 8 pm and midnight. As there won’t be enough moisture aloft to support showers, I expect this to be a dry front. However its passage will be noticeable as winds will quickly pick up from the northwest, gusting up to 25 mph, or perhaps higher. Lows tonight will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Friday

Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy on Friday, with highs generally in the lower 50s. We’ll also have those persistent northerly winds, which will still be gusty at times. A light freeze is possible in Houston on Friday night in Houston, with temperatures likely dropping into the 30 to 33 degree range.

Saturday

A secondary surge a colder air arrives on Saturday, and accordingly this will be a very cold day. Look for sunny skies and highs in the low 40s. Temperatures will bottom out on Saturday night, with lows likely in the 25 to 30 degree range in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. A hard freeze will be possible, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than what the region experienced earlier this week.

Sunday

Conditions will be a little warmer on Sunday, with sunny skies and highs in the vicinity of 50 degrees. Lows on Sunday night probably won’t freeze in Houston, but it will be close; and a light freeze will be possible further inland.

Monday

We’re going to warm back up into the 60s next week, and this time there will be time for moisture to return to the atmosphere ahead of the next front. The overall pattern is not exactly clear, but from Tuesday night through Thursday I expect a decent chance of rain, with overall accumulations perhaps somewhere on the order of 0.5 to 1 inch. Temperatures cool back down by Friday or so of next week, but at this time a freeze seems unlikely.

In brief: In this morning’s post we discuss the phenomenon of freezing fog, which parts of the region are experiencing this morning. We also talk about Houston’s brief warm-up over the next two days before another Arctic front surges in for the weekend. At least there’s no freezing precipitation this time.

Freezing fog

You’re familiar with fog. But are you familiar with freezing fog? It’s not something we have to contend with too often in Houston, but conditions are such that fog is forming this morning (light winds, dewpoints near air temperatures, etc.) Freezing fog occurs when tiny droplets of fog freeze instantly on exposed surfaces outside, including windshields and walkways. If it’s freezing at your location this morning, which it is for large areas outside of Houston’s urban core, you may notice a slight sheen of frost or ice this morning. It will be slippery so take care.

Wednesday

After a chilly start to the morning, we are going to see highs this afternoon push up into the mid-50s for most of the region. Winds, from the north, will be light. Low temperatures tonight will be a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday night, but for outlying areas a light freeze (and freezing fog) will again be possible.

Thursday

This will be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures reaching up to near-normal levels for late January, in the low- to mid-60s for most locations. Some clouds will build on Thursday night, but there likely won’t be enough moisture to support any precipitation as a cold front passes through after midnight. Lows will be in the upper 30s as this front moves through.

Friday

Expect a cold day with partly cloudy skies and brisk northerly winds, gusting up to 20 mph or perhaps a bit higher. High temperatures will top out at around 50 degrees. As skies clear overnight the region, away from the coast, is likely to see a light freeze. I’d expect lows of about 30 degrees in Houston and most suburbs.

Saturday

A secondary push of Arctic air will arrive on Saturday, and this will accordingly be a rather cold day despite sunny skies. Expect highs perhaps only around 40 degrees, with overnight lows falling into the 25 to 30 degree range in Houston. A hard freeze is possible along and north of a line from Katy to The Woodlands, although temperatures should be a little warmer than what we experienced during this most recent Arctic cooldown.

Sunday

Highs will rebound to around 50 degrees on Sunday, so still cold, but not as cold. I expect Houston to remain slightly above freezing on Sunday night, but a light freeze will be possible for inland areas. If you’re wondering, Sunday night appears to be the region’s last chance for a freeze until at least mid-February.

Next week

Temperatures will rebound into the 60s next week, with nights generally in the 40s. The combination of a coastal low pressure system and a cool front should bring a decent shot of rain into the area beginning Tuesday night into Thursday, details to be determined.