In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s very straightforward forecast, and look ahead to a front this weekend that will bring some (potentially) significantly colder air.
Temperatures this morning will be the coldest they get until next Tuesday. (Weather Bell)
Overall pattern is set
Houston’s forecast is pretty much set for the next week or so. In fact, I would forgive you if you left off checking Space City Weather for a day or two. Really, the only major question I have right now is just how cold temperatures will get early next week, after the arrival of a front next week. The city’s coldest temperature of the fall season, so far, was 47 degrees on Halloween morning. At this time I bet we get colder than that.
Before then we are going to see a gradual warm-up this week, from lows this morning in the vicinity of 50 degrees to lows in the mid-60s this weekend. With high pressure dominating we are going to see mostly sunny to full-on sunny days. We’ll also see gradually more humid air, although nothing oppressive like the region experiences during summer. The front likely arrives on Sunday morning, some time.
Tuesday
Today is going to be an exceptional day, with sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 70s. East winds will shift to come from the south, although remaining fairly light. This is the beginning of the onshore flow, although it will take some time for atmospheric moisture levels to rise. Accordingly humidity will still remain fairly low today. Lows tonight will be warmer, dropping to around 60 degrees in Houston.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
Over this period our daily high temperatures will gradually rise, from about 80 on Wednesday to the mid-80s by Friday (some areas further inland may push into the upper 80s). Really not much more to say. A couple of afternoons may have some wind gusts up to 15 mph. Evenings and mornings won’t be particularly cool, but it will be mild and pleasant to be outside. I’ll be enjoying them.
Saturday and Sunday
The first half of the weekend will bring more warm weather, not unlike Friday. The models have become a little faster with the timing of the front this weekend, and it now looks as though it will come through on Saturday night or Sunday morning. I’ll remain in the “to be determined” camp until there’s some consistency. At this point I think the front will be a dry passage, so I expect a lot of sunshine on Sunday. Look for highs in the upper 70s, probably? I think conditions will be fairly windy, with northerly gusts up to 25 mph, maybe. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, but I’m writing that in pencil.
Will colder air dive into Texas, or be shunted more to the east early next week? (Weather Bell)
Next week
At this point I’m leaning into a “short and sharp” characterization of this front. Matt and I had a little discussion this morning about whether this could be described as an “Arctic” front, as it will be bringing a nose of significantly colder air into the eastern half of the United States. I’m going with a “whiff” of Arctic air, because I do think things could get pretty chilly on Monday night. Houston proper probably holds in the 40s somewhere, but I could see upper 30s for inland areas. It depends on how much of the colder air is pushed due south into Texas, or whether it is shunted off more to the east of us. Anyway, there’s the potential for some rather chilly conditions early next week. I do think temperatures will moderate pretty quicky by Tuesday night or Wednesday, however.
This month we’ve got a jam-packed SCW Q&A for you, with topics ranging from the eventual demise of La Niña to mysterious high tides to a new forum where you can talk weather, 24/7! The latter is also where you can now leave questions for this occasional Q&A series. Let’s get to it!
Q. I’ve heard a lot about the La Niña weather pattern that the US is apparently in. It indicates that we will have a warm and dry winter with above average temps. What is your realistic take on our upcoming winter? Will we ever have freezing temps or not?
A. So yes, La Niña conditions are currently present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This means that sea surface temperatures in the region are mostly below average across the area. According to the latest forecast from NOAA, issued last week, La Niña conditions are likely to persist through winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions likely in during the January to March time frame next year. Predicting precisely when just is not possible.
Probabilities of ENSO for now into summer 2026. (NOAA)
Assuming that a moderate La Niña is in place this winter, what does that mean for Texas in general, and Houston in particular?
Typical climatological pattern during La Niña (NOAA)
La Niña’s largest impact lies in how it affects the jet stream. I’ve discussed in the past the mechanics of the jet stream, and how important it is to Texas weather. In a normal winter, the jet stream drives low pressure systems and cold fronts down from Canada and into the southern United States. La Niña limits the southern extent of the jet stream, minimizing the number and intensity of those cold, rain-laden fronts we typically see. This means Texas could see a drier, warmer winter than average, if typical La Niña patterns play out. Of course we have had some of our very coldest snaps during some recent La Niña winters, so this should not be treated as an absolute certainty.
– Eric
Q. It feels like we are in a drought. What conditions must exist for meteorologists say “we’re in a drought” and what conditions must be met before an area comes out of the drought?
A. Generally, Matt and I rely on the U.S. Drought Monitor to determine drought conditions locally and nationally. They characterize the intensity of drought from “none” to “exceptional drought.” As of this week (with data through Monday, October 27) a little more than half of the Houston area is “abnormally dry” and a little less than half is in a “moderate drought.” If you’re interested in the methodology behind the drought determination, more information can be found here.
U.S. Drought Monitor product for Texas, released Thursday. (U.S. Drought Monitor)
Another good resource is the climate page of the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service. They have lots of good resources, but among my favorite are snapshots of annual rainfall totals compared to normal levels. From this it is pretty clear that the Houston region has been building up a rainfall deficit since early August. That is pretty consistent with the time I started watering my grass this year.
Houston temperature and rainfall series for 2025. (National Weather Service)
Note, also, you can see a spike in rain totals associated with recent rainfall. It put a dent in our annual deficit, but only a small one.
– Eric
Q. I was visiting Houston and realized that the sky is blue at night. It’s not very dark like in nyc. Do you know why?
A. Interesting question! I don’t know the precise answer, but I would guess that one reason the sky over New York City at night appears to be a different ‘color’ or ‘tint’ than Houston is due to the presence of a larger number of skyscrapers and their bright lights in the Big Apple.
As for the blue color at night, that is largely due to the increased use of LED lights. Before about a decade ago, the vast majority of street and building lights were sodium-vapor lamps, which appeared more orange and yellow-ish. LEDs are much more efficient in terms of energy use. And they emit light at a shorter wavelength, in the blue-white portion of the spectrum. Shorter-wavelength light is scattered more efficiently. This leads to more bluish light bouncing around the lower atmosphere.
Both LED and yellow tungsten street lights are seen on this street in Houston’s River Oaks neighborhood. (Dwight Silverman photo)
Houston is also generally more humid than New York, and this extra humidity makes the effect more intense (water vapor in the atmosphere increases scattering).
– Eric
Q. We have had a lot of ozone days late summer / early Fall ( or at least it seems like it ). These days are usually drier in humidity and gorgeous. I’m pretty sensitive to the air quality. Even as far inland as Tomball it still affects me. Winds are from NWnot from SE( city of Houston air ) . What weather factors play into Ozone days? Lightwind, sun? Wind direction?
A. We do have a lot of ozone action days in Houston. Over the last 10 years, we have averaged about 37 per year. Just to refresh people’s memories, when we discuss “ozone action days,” we aren’t referring to the ozone layer in the stratosphere (or good ozone); we are discussing ground ozone, which forms through chemical reactions between nitrogen oxide and what we call “volatile organic compounds,” or VOCs. In plain language? The pollution emitted by cars, power plants, refineries, chemical plants, etc. will chemically react in sunlight to produce ground-level ozone.
(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)
The reality is that some of the nicest days in Houston can be marred by pollution because maximum sunlight and clear skies usually follows cold fronts, ushering in lower humidity. You’ll see most of our ozone action days in autumn and spring behind cold fronts or sometimes behind winter fronts. We can also get them in summer when we have stagnant high pressure and minimal daytime thunderstorms. While it does tend to improve the farther you get from the population (Harris County) or industrial (Galveston County) centers, because Houston sprawls so much and so far, ozone issues can extend far into Harris County and even just beyond. Wind direction does not play much of a role, but cars, industry, and sunlight do.
– Matt
Q. We recently got an alert warning of coastal flooding potential while in Galveston. It was a strange sight considering we were used to seeing flood warnings before a storm, but rain wasn’t anywhere in the forecast. Yet, we encountered times where the beaches in the west end had no accessible sand because the tides were so high and our rented beach house had flooded roads. What caused this sudden high tide spree? A friend claimed it was a “noreaster” which popped up on my feed affecting the east coast, is that effectively a hurricane for side effects to other coastal areas? What gives?
A. Ah, the joys of living on the Gulf Coast. Blue sky flooding is a fairly common problem, and it has gotten to be more common due to the combination of sea level rise due to climate change and land subsidence as we pull groundwater out of aquifers.
The day you’re speaking of was a day of what we call “king tides,” which are the astronomically highest tides of the year. Basically, the predicted highest tides in any year are king tides. We know when those will occur. But this year, we also had what we call a “long fetch” (more fetch than “Mean Girls”), which is to say easterly winds pushing across the length of the Gulf from Florida to Texas, which helped elevate tides a little more. The combination of king tides and the winds helped cause some coastal flooding without a drop of rain.
The average general wind direction from October 4-6 during the king tides in the Gulf. (NOAA)
Q. We like the new commenting system, but each category closes after a day. Is there a place where we can just chat in general about the weather? Or ask weather questions?
A. We’ve been getting more comfortable with Discourse as our commenting system, and now that things have settled down, we’re going to try out having a discussion area where people can talk about more general weather-related topics. Please feel free to try out the Weather Talk category!
Unlike the Space City Weather or The Eyewall categories, anyone can start a thread in Weather Talk, and discussions will stay open instead of closing in 24 hours.
We’d like to keep things focused on the weather rather than having free-ranging discussions, so please make your discussions weather-related! There’s a welcome post in the new forum with some more details on how we’d like things to go, so please check that first.
You can also use this forum to post questions you’d like to see in our regular Q&A feature (like this one!). When we get ready to post a new Q&A, we’ll scan that category for your queries. Got a question you want to ask now? Head over to Weather Talk!
In brief: In today’s update we review our warmer than normal October, which ended up tied for the sixth warmest October on record in Houston. We also look ahead to roller-coaster weather this week, with rising temperatures before a front late this weekend.
Daily high and low temperature for October, along with normals, and max and min temps. (NOAA)
October review
If you look closely at the chart above, you can see that every daytime temperature in October was warmer than normal until the cold front at the end of the month, which dropped us nicely into fall-like weather. Thanks to this turnaround Houston did not end up with the warmest October in the city’s history. Rather, the average temperature of 76.0 degrees (4.2 degrees above normal) tied for the sixth warmest October on record. Our days were especially warm, averaging 88 degrees across the month, when the normal high is just 82.8 degrees.
Sunrise temperatures are pleasantly chilly across Texas. (Weather Bell)
Monday
The forecast for this week will be straightforward, with sunny skies expected to prevail from dawn to dusk. The big changes of note will be the return of the onshore flow on Tuesday, and then a front this weekend. Aside from that, everything is small details. Anyway, for today we can expect mild temperatures in the mid-70s, with light easterly winds skies. Skies will be full sunshine. Lows tonight will be similar to those of Sunday night, in the low 50s for most locations, although it will be cooler further inland, and warmer near the coast.
Tuesday
Expect another sunny day, this time with highs in the upper 70s. As winds shift to come from the southeast we will see a warmer night, with most locations dropping into the upper 50s or lower 60s.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
These days will bring mostly sunny skies and slowly warming conditions. Highs in Wednesday will likely be in the lower 80s, rising to mid- to possibly upper-80s (for a few areas) by the end of the week. With dewpoints solidly in the 60s this weather will feel fairly humid, but not oppressively so. Lows during the second half of the week will only fall into the mid-60s for most locations. Basically, did you like the weather during the second half of October? Because it’s coming back for a couple of days.
Friday should be the ‘hottest’ day of the week. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
Saturday should be fairly warm (mid- to upper-80s) and mostly sunny. A front is on the way this weekend, but right now the timing is a bit uncertain. I think it probably will arrive sometime during the day on Sunday, and this will impact our temperatures. At this point most of our model guidance indicates a dry passage, but it is possible we see a few very light showers with the front. Anyway, highs on Sunday will probably be somewhere in the low- to mid-80s depending on the timing of the front.
Next week
The first half of next week looks cooler, with highs in 70s and lows probably in the 50s in Houston (40s possible further inland). A warm-up of sorts is possible later next week, possibly into the lower 80s. We’ll see!
In brief: Today’s post discusses what may be our nicest Halloween forecast, ever. We also talk about the potential for some showers on Saturday (more likely closer to the coast), and gradually warming conditions during the second half of next week.
Halloween outlook
I have been writing about the weather in Houston for more than two decades. Almost every year on Halloween there is some concern, be it the potential for rain, or humidity, or winds, or something. This year, we have absolutely zero concerns. Temperatures near sunset? Mild, in the upper 60s. Skies? Clear. Winds? Light, maybe 5 mph from the north. Humidity? Haha, there will be none. Seriously, enjoy the very fine evening.
Temperatures just before sunrise, on Friday, are rather chilly across Houston. (Weather Bell)
Friday
We’re starting out with the region’s coldest weather in more than half a year, with much of the area falling into the 40s. Skies will be sunny today, with extraordinarily pleasant highs in the mid-70s, and light winds. Today is one of the region’s top-10 weather days of the year. Lows tonight will be several degrees warmer than Thursday night as winds shift to come from the southeast. Most of the region will drop into the low- to mid-50s.
Saturday
This will be a bit of a cloudier day, as the onshore flow resumes and moisture returns. The question is, will there be enough moisture to support showers as a reinforcing front pushes into the area? For areas north of Interstate 10, I think the answer is probably not. But for areas along and south of the freeway, especially down closer to the coast, there is perhaps a 40 percent chance of some showers during the afternoon and evening hours. I don’t think we are going to see anything severe, but a few tenths of an inch of rain are possible. Highs Saturday will be in the mid-70s, with lows falling into the lower 50s for most.
Rain accumulation forecast for Saturday and Saturday evening. (Weather Bell)
Sunday
A fine, sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Expect modest northerly winds (nothing like Wednesday) as cooler air from the front arrives. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the lower 50s.
Next week
We’ll be in the 70s for a couple of days next week before a warming trend into the lower 80s. Overnight lows will recover by the second half of the week, likely into the low 60s. Rain chances look low throughout most of the period. It’s possible that a weak front arrives by Friday or Saturday, bringing a bit higher chance of rain, but I don’t have much confidence in the forecast at that point. We’ll be back on Monday with better information—hopefully! Have a great weekend, everyone.
In the spirit of Halloween, a message from Reliant
Beware the Vampire Power: Halloween isn’t the only time vampires lurk around your home. They can be hiding in your outlets year-round. These “vampire loads” happen when devices like chargers, computers and other electronics draw small amounts of electricity even when turned off. So, does shutting down your computer and phone at night really help? Yes! Restarting them in the morning uses only a tiny amount of energy compared to leaving them plugged in overnight. To keep those energy-sucking vampires at bay, unplug chargers or use a smart power strip to fully cut power. Savings may be modest, but it’s a small step toward a more energy-conscious home.
A Smarter Way to Scare (and Save): Reliant’s Smarter Home Bundle brings energy efficiency and security together, perfect for those eerie doorbell recordings when trick-or-treaters come calling this Friday. With Vivint’s smart technology, you can monitor your home, manage energy use and even catch those costumed creatures on camera. And don’t miss the limited-edition spooky Halloween Chimes available this week for the Doorbell Camera Pro! Spooky laugh, witch laugh, howling and more!
