Good morning. Houston’s relatively mild weather for May will continue for awhile thanks to a front this week, and frankly we should savor these days as summer looms just around the corner.

Today

A few stray showers passed across Houston on Tuesday, and we’ll probably see similar conditions today—which is to say mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of brief showers. Clouds should help limit high temperatures to the mid-80s, which is near normal for this time of year. Overnight temperatures remain warm and humid.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances will increase marginally on toward the end of the work week as an upper-level low pressure system moves across the United States, and pushes a late season cold front through Texas. This will perturb our moist atmosphere enough such that we could squeeze out some rain showers ahead of the front on Thursday, and with its passage on Friday by or before noon. Amounts won’t be significant, with totals likely around one to two tenths of an inch for areas that do get rain. Highs on Thursday and Friday will likely reach the mid- to upper-80s.

Expect only moderate rainfall, if any, with a front this week. (NOAA/Weather Bell)

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This morning will feel several degrees warmer across Houston, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-60s across the region, and this is pretty typical weather for early- to mid-May. We’ll now warm up some.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Atmospheric moisture levels are starting to recover, and as a result we’re going to see rising humidity levels during the next couple of days, but high temperatures should remain moderate in the mid-80s. While there is enough moisture to squeeze out some showers, I think they’ll probably remain isolated today and Wednesday, with the best chances south and west of the Houston metro area.

Thursday and Friday

By Thursday morning enough moisture will have moved inland that we could see some scattered showers, likely during the morning hours. But this rain will be nothing to write home about—I’m not expecting significant accumulations. Otherwise, Thursday should be a partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the mid-80s.

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Following a rare, exceptional May weekend Houston will warm up some in the days ahead, and the humidity will return—but we just might be in luck with some more great weather next weekend thanks to another front.

Today

It’s a pleasant morning across Houston, with lows ranging from about 60 degrees up north to the mid-60s closer to the coast. Unfortunately, the upper air pattern that helped keep drier air over the Houston region has unfortunately moved off to the east, and this has opened up a more southerly flow of moist air off the Gulf. This will bring clouds and humidity back to the area, beginning today. Expect highs today in the mid-80s (even possibly upper 80s in some areas), with lows tonight only reaching the upper 60s. This is more typical weather for May than what we had this past weekend.

Any rain through mid-week in Houston is most likely to the southwest of the city. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday and Wednesday

Highs will continue in the mid- to upper-80s, with nighttime temperatures only falling to around 70 degrees. As moisture levels rise we’re also going to see a chance of rain return to the forecast, but only just barely. Right now it looks like the best chance for some isolated rain showers will come to the southwest of Houston, down the coast, where the atmosphere will be more moist.

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Let’s face it. We’ve gotten off very, very easy this spring in most of Southeast Texas. It’s been pleasant very often lately, despite a couple days of heat and humidity mixed in. So as we continue on another nice, lengthy stretch of fair weather, let’s quickly review where we are right now.

A Texas Spring Fling

Rainfall amounts haven’t been at all like the last two springs. It also hasn’t been terribly dry either. In fact, precipitation over the last 60 days is averaging just a little above normal in most of the Houston area.

Percent of normal precipitation for the 60 day period ending yesterday shows most of the region in pretty good shape. (NWS/NOAA)

 

It’s a bit drier than normal in patches around the area also, but we’re by no means in drought. Even despite recent dryness near and west of San Antonio, those areas aren’t really in drought either.

And on top of this, temperatures have been sublime at times. Yes, we’ve already hit 90° twice, but let’s be frank: We’ve had multiple days like yesterday and today, and they’ve been amazing. The last two weeks have been especially lovely.

Average temperatures the last couple weeks have not been too far off normal, despite a couple days in the 90s. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

 

So for most of late April and now early May, rather than drifting into our miserable, stable summer of high humidity and plenty of heat, we’ve only had tastes of it.

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After a line of showers and thunderstorms moved through Houston on Wednesday evening—bringing 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain, generally—the region will have smooth sailing in terms of weather for quite a while.

Today

Temperatures this morning are generally in the upper 50s, and skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day as highs slide into the 70s. The only weather to note will be brisk northerly breezes, with winds gusting up to about 30 mph as much drier, and cooler air moves into the region. Lows tonight should fall into the mid-50s for Houston—cooler up north, a bit warmer along the coast.

It is near freezing this morning in the Panhandle after Wednesday’s cold front. (Weather Bell)

Friday

Another sunny day a lot like Thursday, although the winds won’t blow quite so hard, and high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.

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Saturday and Sunday

As we’ve been suggesting for awhile, the weather for this weekend will be fine. By Friday evening winds will have died down, and conditions will be calm throughout the weekend. Look for highs in the low 80s, lows around 60 degrees, and entirely sunny skies. Humidity won’t be too high. It is hard to ask for much more in May, in Houston. And weekends like this just don’t come in June, July, or August so enjoy them now.

Next week

Normally you’d expect the region to whiplash right back into the upper 80s next week as moisture begins returning from the Gulf of Mexico, but the warm-up should be more gradual, such that highs only reach the middle 80s by the middle of next week. Overnight lows, too, should remain in the 60s for all but coastal areas. It’s unlikely that rain chances will return to Houston before Wednesday, or more probably Thursday or Friday of next week. Even then, the next two weeks look fairly dry for our region, with low overall accumulations.

Posted at 6:45am CT on Thursday by Eric