Month: October 2017

Will Houston’s summer never end?

This weekend saw some impressive early October heat. Oh, did I write impressive? I meant oppressive. Especially on Sunday—when the high temperature reached 93 degrees. So far seven of this month’s eight days have seen warmer than normal conditions, which is especially galling at a time of year when many of us are looking forward to cooler fall weather.

October has started out warm for Houston. (National Weather Service)

Monday

We’re going to have one more uncharacteristically hot day on Monday before some moderate relief finally arrives. Highs today may again rise into the low 90s, and another high today of 93 degrees would tie a record high for this date. However, a moderate cool front will reach the northern part of Houston tonight, and should move off the coast by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

Some moisture will pool ahead of the front, which could lead to some light, scattered showers on Tuesday morning before the front moves offshore. Most areas probably won’t see rain, and those that do probably won’t see more than a tenth or two of an inch of rainfall. Highs Tuesday should only rise into the low 80s, with drier air making the evening and overnight temperatures feel pleasant.

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Hurricane Nate to hit northern Gulf of Mexico coast tonight

Hurricane Nate is moving rapidly toward the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Saturday morning, likely making landfall tonight in extreme southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi coast. Probably the biggest concern is the potential for storm surge.

4am CT forecast track for Hurricane Nate. (National Hurricane Center)

Nate shot the gap between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba on Friday, allowing its center to remain over water, and it is now taking advantage of low wind shear to intensify. Nate had 85-mph winds as of 7am Saturday morning, and could strengthen further before landfall. Reconnaissance aircraft show Nate to be a lopsided system, with all of its significant winds on the east side of the storm. With that in mind, here is a look at the storm’s principal threats.

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Watching TS Nate, waiting on a cold front

Houston remains in a warm pattern that’s going to persist for a few more days before some kind of cold front is likely to drag through the area next week. We may also see some showers related to Tropical Storm Nate this weekend, but nothing we should be too concerned about.

Friday

Mostly sunny and hot, with highs in the upper 80s. Not much to say about today, other than it’s going to be a typical, late-summer day for Houston.

Saturday & Nate

Tropical Storm Nate should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico early on Saturday morning and move north fairly rapidly, likely reaching the northern Gulf of Mexico coast by very early on Sunday morning. The high-confidence forecast track from the National Hurricane Center looks like this:

Three-day forecast for TS Nate. (National Hurricane Center)

Along such a track, Houston may see some precipitation from the outer bands of the storm, but this is nothing we’re too concerned about. Likely, it won’t rain for most people, and accumulations seem unlikely to be more than 1 inch for those that do see rain—if that much. Nate should also keep tide levels higher than normal for the next day or two along the upper Texas coast.

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Warmth continues for Houston as northern Gulf watches the tropics

It’s been hot in Houston. Wednesday’s high temperature reached 89 degrees, and the nights remain humid. This late summer-like pattern will remain for about five more days, before a cool front arrives next week, most likely on Tuesday. In this post we’ll also discuss Tropical Depression 16. (Update: This became Tropical Storm Nate in the 7am CT advisory from the National Hurricane Center).

Thursday and Friday

Warm, mostly sunny days linger under the influence of high pressure. We will continue to see high temperatures near 90 degrees, with overnight lows around 70.

Thursday: It’s another warm morning across the entire state of Texas. (Weather Bell)

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

For the most part, we can expect mostly sunny days, with continued warm weather. However, as the tropical depression—likely Nate by then—moves into the Gulf of Mexico we may see some moisture associated with the storm that produces some rain showers over Houston. I’d bet on hot and sunny, but we’re going to leave open the slight possibility of some rain for now, and issue a forecast with more confidence tomorrow. (Either way, we’re not expecting significant, flooding rainfall).

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