Month: November 2018

Houston’s temperature dropped below 40 degrees on Tuesday morning for the first time since February 12, and our lows this morning will be quite a bit warmer than the next two mornings. The region’s first freeze since January is on tap for tonight for most of Houston except the coastal areas.

Tuesday

Today will be a cold one, without a doubt. Skies should remain mostly cloudy, and this will likely limit high temperatures in the mid-40s. Brisk, northerly winds at around 15 mph will push wind chill temperatures into the 30s—so you’ll definitely want a jacket at the very least. The radar is showing some very spotty snow flurries and sleet to the west of the region this morning, and this area of moister air aloft will move over the Houston region between about 8am and noon. However, the air nearer the surface of our region is very dry, so while we can’t entirely rule out a few sleet pellets or snow flurries this morning, they’re unlikely.

Tonight will be the region’s coldest since mid-January, with most of the area seeing a light-to-moderate freeze .The usual precautions for pets and plants apply, although it probably won’t be cold enough to threaten pipes. The record low for Nov. 14 in Houston is 28 degrees, and I suspect the city’s official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport will come close to that.

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Showers associated with a low-pressure system have generally moved east of our region, and now we await the arrival of a strong cold front later this afternoon that will be blustery. This will bring a freeze to parts of Houston, perhaps even most of the city, by Tuesday night. I’ll say it—Winter is Coming.

Monday

Temperatures will climb into the upper 50s today before the arrival of a front this afternoon; probably around 1 or 2 pm for central parts of the city and a little later along the coast. For the most part this should be a dry front, with only scattered rain showers, and these will end regardless later this afternoon. From that point temperatures should begin to fall as winds gust above 25mph in the city, and perhaps above 35mph along the coast bringing in chill northerly air. There is a wind advisory in effect from 2 pm Monday through 6 am Tuesday for the coast. It will be blowing out tonight.

Overnight low temperatures should generally remain in the mid- to upper-30s for the Houston area on Monday night, but with the winds it will feel quite cold outside. Wind chill temperatures for Tuesday morning will feel like the 20s for much of the region.

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Just jumping in with a quick update on Sunday to call attention to some potentially severe weather later today. The overall pattern is one in which low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico near Brownsville will move up the coast today, and into the Galveston region tonight. This low will combine with Gulf moisture, and upper-level energy, to produce a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight. NOAA has placed the region under a “marginal” threat of severe weather.

Effectively, this means we’ll see high temperatures in the upper 50s today, with an elevated chance of thunderstorms around sunset and overnight. The precise location of the storms will depend upon how far the low, and associated “warm front” move inland, but the biggest threat is probably damaging winds and an isolated tornado. We don’t anticipate rain accumulations above 0.5 inch or so for most people.

A strong cold front arrives in the area on Monday morning, and these gusty winds will bring drier conditions. Rain chances should diminish during the day, and skies should begin to clear by the afternoon hours or so. It will be a cold day in the 50s with the winds providing a chill, so bundle up accordingly.

We’re still looking at a cold week, with Tuesday night and Wednesday morning the coldest of the bunch. Chances of a freeze for inland area look decent, and we’ll have an estimated freeze line map for you tomorrow.