Good morning. A few areas saw rainfall on Monday—Cypress was one big winner near Houston with nearly 1 inch of rain—but now the atmosphere is pretty much going to lock down for awhile. As high pressure builds to our west, it will prevent rising air, trapping moist, humid, and very hot conditions at the surface. It looks like the heat will peak this weekend, when 100-degree days are possible.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
The next three days will see a mix of clouds and sunshine. Because some clouds will linger, they should help to moderate temperatures slightly, keeping highs in the mid-90s. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph. Overnight lows will provide little relief, likely falling into the upper 70s for inland areas, and remaining at or above 80 along the coast. There is about a 10 percent chance of a stray shower developing before high pressure really settles in over the weekend.
High pressure will build to a maximum this weekend. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
By this weekend high pressure will reach its maximum extent over the southwestern United States. For Houston this means hot and sunny weather, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Winds will generally be light. This should be the hottest weather we’ve experienced so far in 2020, so please take care outside with the heat.
Next week
Very hot weather continues to start next week, but temperatures should begin to moderate a bit later in the week. The forecast still looks very dry rain-wise until next Thursday or Friday at the very earliest.
Last week, we discussed how 2020 had started off tremendously fast but slowed a bit. We’re coming out of that lull now, but thankfully what we are amassing is mostly curiosity rather than any serious impacts.
Tropical outlook in a sentence
While another system is possible off the East Coast, the Gulf is not expected to deliver any action over the next 1 to 2 weeks, as summer roasts much of Texas.
Edouard sets another 2020 superlative
With Tropical Storm Edouard being named on Sunday night, the Atlantic has now set a new record for the earliest 5th storm on record. The previous record holder was Emily back in 2005, which formed on the 11th of July. We typically do not see our 5th storm until the end of August, so we are off to the races right now. We’ll discuss 6th storm records in just a moment.
Again, there’s a huge difference between utilizing number of named storms and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) to characterize the start to a season. Please see last week’s post for an explanation of the value and shortcomings of ACE. From the named storm standpoint, we’re at late August levels already. From an ACE standpoint, we’re at July 20th levels, not super abnormal.
While named storms are up to typical late August levels already, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is only running about two weeks ahead of schedule right now, which is probably a more reasonable way to characterize the 2020 season thus far. (Colorado State)
Just to put this into a little perspective: In 2005, the year we keep beating for earliest storm, by the time the 5th storm dissipated on July 21st, we had amassed an ACE of 56, or what is normal for September 14th. As I’ve told some people, 2020 thus far is about quantity, not quality.
East Coast bias
Of this year’s five storms so far, four of them have formed near or off of the East Coast. Could our next system come from that area? It very well could. A disturbance dubbed “Invest 98L” moved ashore on the Florida Panhandle on Sunday night. It is currently over northern Georgia and projected to lift to the north and east over the next few days.
Invest 98L is disorganized over Georgia today, but it does have about a 40% chance of developing as it pushes off the coast later this week. (Tropical Tidbits)
Right now, the National Hurricane Center is giving this about a 40 percent chance at becoming a tropical system over the next few days as it lifts north and east off the East Coast. If it does become a tropical storm, it would be named Fay, and it would break the record for earliest 6th storm (Franklin on July 21, 2005). This disturbance should produce heavy rain on the coast of the Carolinas, but at this point, it is not expected to cause much serious trouble before rolling out to sea.
Saharan dust
We continue to see the bulk of the Atlantic basin littered with dust today.
Widespread dust continues to hold over most of the Atlantic Basin, but it has eased up in density and coverage a bit. (University of Wisconsin CIMSS)
Dust, while widespread, is beginning to ease up a little relative to late June. The good news for us in Texas is that the quantities of dust reaching the Gulf are slowly diminishing, so we’re not expecting quite as ugly of an impact from dust over the next 10 days as we saw in late June up through this past weekend. Still, as dust rolls west across the basin, it’s always possible we see some in our area. But we do have something extra working in our favor by this weekend.
Heat in Texas keeps the Gulf closed
Look, some of us like the heat this time of year. Many of us deride as just something we have to accept about living here. Sometimes the heat can be good for something, and in our case, it would seem that it will help shield us from any Gulf happenings, including Saharan dust over the next week or two. To be clear, we don’t really expect any Gulf happenings, but in the off-chance something could form, strong high pressure over Texas would most likely deflect anything back to the east or well south into Mexico. Below, you will see the GFS ensemble mean forecast for days 6 through 10 (Sunday to Thursday next week), which shows high pressure in the upper atmosphere oriented just right to keep Texas protected.
The upper air forecast for days 6 through 10 shows a rock solid, strong high pressure system over Texas, which should be enough to keep the region “shielded” from any Gulf impacts. (Tropical Tidbits)
Of course, that will come with a cost, assessed in triple digit temperature risk and heat index values. But as long as high pressure can hold over Texas, we’ll be pretty safe from the Gulf. We don’t expect that to last forever, but for the next week or two, it is expected to be quiet, albeit dry.
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I feel like Houston is standing on the edge of the abyss this morning. We’ve got one more day of partly sunny weather with a moderate chance of rain before high pressure settles in. And by settle in, I mean builds over the region and dominates our weather in one of those classic summertime ridges that pushes up temperatures and drives away precipitation. Rain chances are not particularly great today, but they’re near zero for at least the next week after today.
Tuesday
Coastal areas should see some scattered showers this morning as higher levels of atmospheric moisture push inland, and some additional showers may push down from the north into areas such as Montgomery County and Harris County this afternoon. Still, overall chances are probably only 30 to 40 percent. Some clouds may help limit high temperatures into the low 90s. Winds will be light, out of the south at about 5 mph. With mostly cloudy skies tonight, lows probably will struggle to drop below 80 degrees for most.
Houston, thy future is hot. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday and Thursday
We’ll see building high pressure over the region, but temperatures won’t reach exceptional levels just yet. These days should be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s, and south winds at 5 to 10 mph.
Friday, Saturday and Sunday
Hot and sunny. Highs will range from the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Lows will offer scant relief, falling into the low 80s along the coast, and upper 70s inland. Please take care outside during the warmest parts of the day.
Next week
This pattern appears unlikely to change before at least Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, and our next chance at any semblance of precipitation is unlikely to occur before around the July 16-18 time frame. Hot and sunny are your bywords for Houston’s weather now.
For the first time in more than a week, Houston’s radar is filling up with light to moderate rain showers this morning. The region will see a reasonable chance of rain today and Tuesday before decreasing chances by mid-week. After that the heat will return in force, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees by the coming weekend. Houston has yet to hit the century mark in temperatures in 2020, but that could change by Saturday or Sunday.
Houston radar at 7am CT on Monday. (kktv.com)
Monday
A combination of an upper-level disturbance and moist atmosphere will allow clouds to form today, and support scattered shower development, with the better chances likely along and north of Interstate 10. We don’t anticipate anything too heavy falling today, but the additional clouds should help to modulate temperatures after highs in the mid- to upper-90s over the last week. Expect highs today in the low-90s. Humidity will still be quite high, and don’t expect overnight low temperatures to fall much below 80 degrees.
Tuesday
This day will probably offer our best chance of rain for this week—and perhaps beyond. I think most areas probably will see at least light rain, with an average of about one-quarter inch of rainfall for most. A few isolated areas may see 1 inch or more of rain. Mostly cloudy skies should help hold high temperatures to about 90 degrees, but it will definitely be a steamy 90 degrees.
